German Darts Grand-Prix Finals Night Tips – JP
German Darts Grand-Prix Finals Night Preview
We are into the last 8 in Germany and hopefully we can finish with more winners. We had another couple this afternoon, including a lovely 2 point bet on Luke Humphries. James Punt’s German Darts Grand-Prix Finals Night preview and tips are below.
Michael Smith vs. Keane Barry
Clearly, 24 hours is a long time in darts. Smith went from surviving match darts against Adam Warner and averaging 85.6 yesterday, to averaging 108 and beating man of the moment Gerwyn Price 6-2 this afternoon.
Keane Barry looked dead and buried against Berry van Peer this afternoon, but the Dutchman suddenly lost his ability to hit a double and went from 5-1 up to losing 5-6. It was only a 92.5 average for Barry and while he took his chances well, he was lucky to get through.
Their H2H record is 5-1 to Smith and if he plays anywhere close to how he did this afternoon then Barry is in trouble. He would be up against it in any case, but a rampant Smith is something of an unstoppable force.
Smith is the 1.25 favourite and Barry 4.00. The temptation is to go with Smith to cover a -2.5 leg handicap but he has failed to cover that in two of their five best of 11 leg matches. There isn’t much of interest here. No bet.
German Darts Grand-Prix Finals Night Tip: No Bet
Danny Noppert vs. Damon Heta
It was a very good performance by Noppert to beat Van Duijvenbode 6-2. He averaged 104 to Dirk’s 99 but it was his doubling that won it. Six out of eight and a 75% checkout rate is hard to live with.
Damon Heta kept his 100% record vs. Chris Dobey with the narrowest of 6-5 wins. He was the better player, Dobey was very slow out of the blocks in almost every leg, having to play catch up and a few missed doubles gave him the chance. In the end Heta hit double 8 with his last dart in hand, otherwise Dobey was well poised to nick it.
Heta has lost his last two ET quarter finals and overall, three of his last six. He has not been a model of consistency in 2023 and four of his last ten matches have seen sub 90 averages, including his second round win over Clemens this weekend.
Noppert Ahead in H2H
Their H2H record is 2-0 to Noppert and their last match was an ET quarter final two weeks ago and Noppert won that 6-4 in a low quality match. He has played in eight ET quarter finals and won five, including the last three in a row. Perhaps he will be a little more comfortable?
Noppert is not at the top of his game. He has won six of his last ten, and like Heta, his scoring has been patchy, but a little better than Heta’s. Both played well this afternoon, Noppert the better of the two, and he deserves to be the favourite all things considered.
GERMAN DARTS GRAND-PRIX FINALS NIGHT TIP: 1 POINT DANNY NOPPERT TO WIN @ 1.88 WITH UNIBET
Nathan Aspinall vs. Andrew Gilding
Aspinall had a comfortable 6-3 win over Jim Williams this afternoon. It was only a 92 average but it was all he needed to do. He will need to do better here but he has that in his game. He has lost five of his last ten matches so he can’t be overly confident. He is a player who has yet to taste victory on the Euro Tour. Indeed, he has never made a final. His quarter final record sees five wins from twelve.
Andrew Gilding got a long overdue win against Dave Chisnall this afternoon in a high-quality match, with both players averaging 99. It was one that got away from Chisnall, but you can’t afford to give Gilding chances these days. He has won six of his last ten matches and has hit two ton plus averages this weekend. Gilding has a superior win rate to Aspinall in 2023 and the UK Open winner should not be underestimated.
Aspinall Edges H2H
The H2H record is 5-3 to Aspinall and in 2022 it was 1-1. Gilding won their only previous match on the Euro Tour, a 6-4 win in 2019. Aspinall is at his best when he has got the adrenaline pumping. He loves playing Price for example. Playing Andrew Gilding is not going to help him reach a state of great excitement. Advantage Gilding?
Gilding has only played two Euro Tour quarter finals but he won them both, both last year. Now a major winner, he is unlikely to let the occasion get to him.
German Darts Grand-Prix Finals Night Tip: 1 point Andrew Gilding to win @ 2.20 with Ladbrokes
Joe Cullen vs. Luke Humphries
Cullen was solid in his 6-3 third round win over Lee Evans. A 97 average and 43% checkout rate will be competitive in the vast majority of matches. Evans didn’t have the fire power to really bother Cullen in the end, but he hung in to make it 3-3, but he faded away at that point. The Rockstar has only won 52% of his matches in 2023 and five of his last ten.
Luke Humphries survived a barrage of seven 180s from De Sousa to land our 2 point bet with some ease and a 6-2 win. De Sousa could find the treble 20, but not a lot else. Humphries averaged 99.9 to go with his 99.0 yesterday. He described both wins as rusty and he is right, he was only at about 85% but was not put under any sustained pressure and he was able to just plot his way to an easy win.
Even Stevens
Their H2H record is 4-4. They met in a Euro Tour quarter final last year which Cullen won 6-5 and overall, on the Euro Tour, Cullen is 3-1. Of Course, Humphries came of age on the ET last year, winning four titles, including this one.
This is a hard one to call. Humphries is not quite back up to speed after his enforced absence, while Cullen has not been great in 2023, sulking for not getting a pick for the Premier League.
Humphries is the 1.66 favourite, Cullen 2.35. I couldn’t be happy backing either. No bet.
