Gibraltar Darts Trophy Evening Tips

It was a pretty decent day for followers of James Punt’s tips this afternoon. Ted Evetts @ 3.50, Danny Noppert (-2.5 ) @1.95 and Suljovic to win 6-5 @ 6.50. He is back in action with more tips, check out his Gibraltar Darts Trophy Evening Session preview below.

Jonny Clayton vs. Adam Smith-Neale

The Ferret averaged 102 at last weekends Nordic Darts Masters, losing the semi-final to MVG. The Premier League winner looked back to his best after a short period off the boil.

Adam Smith-Neale averaged 93.8 when beating a local qualifier 6-1. That ended a four-match losing run on the Challenge Tour. He won a Challenge Tour title last month and was runner up in another, before winning the qualifying event for his place here. He is averaging 85 for the season, some 13 points Shy of Claytons season al average of 98.7. That is a huge gulf in class but Neale-Smith is capable of ton plus averages at his best.

We are on Clayton to win the tournament so no need to get involved here.

Jose De Sousa vs. Kenny Neyens

Neyens managed to win with a 71.2 average, which may have been a Euro Tour record for lowest winning average. Jose De Sousa may be off the boil right now, but he could average 71 with two darts.

Neyens is usually better than that and averages 84.5 on the Challenge Tour, still a long way shy of De Sousa’s 98.8. Like Smith-Neale, Neyens can hit ton plus averages but the likelihood is that he will be out gunned by De Sousa. He did beat De Sousa 5-1 when they met in the 2019 European qualifying school, but Jose has improved a bit since then.

De Sousa can be a slow starter and Neyens might get a leg or two early on but surely this is a straightforward job for the Special One.

Gibraltar Darts Trophy Evening Tip: 1 point Under 8.5 legs @ 1.83 with Ladbrokes

Devon Petersen vs. Gabriel Clemens

Clemens ended our hopes of a Luke Humphries win. The German was the 6-4 winner but it wasn’t a great match with neither player at their best.

Devon Petersen has a 2-1 H2H record over Clemens and they have met twice this year, with one win each and both 6-2 score lines.

Petersen has lost six of his last ten and is averaging 90.5 in 2021 whilst Clemens is averaging 93 and has won six of his last ten but he is treading water rather than still improving.

Petersen is struggling, his seasonal average has dropped six points and his last ten matches has seen just three 90 plus averages and a best of 93. His win rate for the year is 50% and his wins tend to be against the lower ranked players. It is not out of the question that Petersen can win, but he is hard to fancy.

Clemens is the 1.50 favourite and those odds look about right. No bet.

Peter Wright vs. Callan Rydz

Rydz took Wright to a deciding leg in the 2020 Players Championship finals third round but was thrashed 7-0 in their only meeting this season and overall it is 4-0 to Snakebite. Wright has lost four of his last ten matches, well shy of his seasonal win rate of 73%.

Rydz was an impressive 6-1 winner when beating Justin Hewitt last night and averaging 103 in the process. That was his best performance of a couple of months and he has now won six of his last ten.

Wright is the 1.26 favourite, Rydz 4.33. If Rydz can keep last nights form going he is in with a chance, but even then, Wright will be hard to beat. No bet.

Gerwyn Price vs. Florian Hempel

Hempel was quite impressive when beating Stephen Bunting 6-5 last night. He was a bit slow to get going but there were two 12 and an 11 dart leg in the second half of the match and he has a bit of a swagger about him. Bunting wasn’t great and this will be a whole different kettle of fish, so long as Price has returned to full fitness. We can only assume that he is otherwise he wouldn’t be here.

Price is averaging 99.0 for the season, has a win rate of 80% and has won eight of his last ten.

These two have met twice, both this year and Price won both 6-2 and 6-3. Hempel is only in his first season with a tour card and very much work in progress, but he has a good talent and can take a few legs. He has played in two previous Euro Tour second round matches and lost both 3-6 to Wright and Whitlock. Something similar?

Gibraltar Darts Trophy Evening Tip: 0.5 point Price to win 6-3 @ 5.00 with Hills

Michael van Gerwen vs. Rob Cross

The highlight of the evening. This will be something of an acid test as to whether MVG is back, or was winning a glorified exhibition event against a woman in the final, not that big a deal? I think it was inevitable that Van Gerwen won something at some point as his scoring was still very good. That tournament, with just four matches, gave him a better chance. This weekend he has to win five and the first is against a former World Champion, albeit a slightly faded ex-champ.

Rob Cross is still trying to rediscover his form, making progress, but still shy of the kind of form he had in 2017-2019. He made a bit of a meal of beating a Hungarian qualifier last night, a 6-4 win was not great. His H2H form vs. MVG is a miserable 4-20 but Cross did win their last meeting, a pro tour match in June, with a 4-6 score line.

MVG Hitting Form

Van Gerwen has now won seven of his last ten matches and averages 98.6 in 2021, not that much more than Cross’ 96.

MVG’s win drought was a consequence of a dip in form, followed by a loss of confidence and vicious circle built up, lasting nearly a year. For Cross, that vicious circle has lasted for a couple of years and will be harder to get out of.

I suspect that Van Gerwen will want to win this and win it big. He needs to strike while the iron is still hot and make a statement this weekend. Beating a former World Champion would be part of that statement, but the big one would be beating the current champion in the quarter final.

It would be a surprise if MVG were to lose this and he has tended to beat Cross comfortably in the past.

Gibraltar Darts Trophy Evening Tip: 2 points Michael van Gerwen to win -1.5 legs @ 1.73 with Betvictor, Hills

Joe Cullen vs. Joe Murnan

Joe will win….but which one? Cullen is the number 1 seed and the 1.30 favourite, but with five defeats in his last ten matches, that seems very short. Murnan beat the useful Martijn Kleermaker 6-5 despite only averaging 84.6 to Kleermaker’s 93.6. The big Dutchman was poor on his doubles and he allowed Murnan to win the game. Murnan has improved this season and is averaging 92.6, so he can do a lot better than he did yesterday. He has already qualified for the finals and is not under any great pressure. Ditto Cullen.

Cullen started the season in great form, winning PC1, runner up in PC3, semi-final of PC5 and PC8. He then had a three month break, came back and won PC13. But in mid-June he lost five in a row, went out in the second round of the World Matchplay and was poor in the last block of Super Series matches, winning just three. He reached the quarter final in Budapest and it is hard to say where is form is.

Cullen is 7-0 up on Murnan which suggests he wins but it is interesting to note that in the six best of eleven matches they have played, all have gone to at least ten legs, and the other was 4-3.

Gibraltar Darts Trophy Evening Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 2.30 with Ladbrokes and Boylesports

Nathan Aspinall vs. Ritchie Edhouse

Nathan Aspinall has lost six of his last ten matches now and their H2H record is 3-2 to Aspinall and in 2021 its is 1-1. He hasn’t completely lost his form but is very inconsistent.

Edhouse made a bit of a meal of beating Steve Beaton 6-4 yesterday. Beaton only averaged 83.9 and should have been dispatched earlier. That ended a run of three defeats for Edhouse but it wasn’t a totally inspiring performance.

You can’t back a player who has lost six of his last ten at odds of 1.40 but is Edhouse any value at 3.50? Yes, a bit but still quite high risk. A handicap of +2.5 for Edhouse makes some sense. With that applied he would have won five of their six previous encounters

Gibraltar Darts Trophy Evening Tip: 1 point Edhouse +2.5 legs to win @ 1.73 with Betfred

Tomorrow afternoon’s third round matches might have to be passed over due to the clash with the Russian GP, but I’ll have look at the quarter finals tomorrow afternoon.

-JamesPunt