Goodwood and Newmarket Saturday Tips Dave Stevos
Goodwood and Newmarket Saturday Tips
We have had a couple of winners at Goodwood this week but yesterday was a nightmare. Smart Champion was given a shocker of a ride and was never put in the race. Perotto ran a nice enough race but missed out on a place. Hortzadar got mullered on the rail and had no chance after. Liberty Beach was bitterly disappointing and the less said about Eagles By Day, the better. However, Born By The Sea, our 25/1 NAP, got us out of jail at Galway. Thankfully, this is the final day and at least we have a couple of races from HQ too. Goodwood and Newmarket Saturday tips are below.
1.20 Goodwood – Thames Materials Handicap (Class 2)
He may have disappointed last time but Run To Freedom shouldn’t be written off yet. Henry Candy’s well related son of Muhaarar won his maiden at Kempton back in December. He beat Highland Avenue by a neck and that horse is now rated 110. Run To Freedom had a break after that win and he reappeared in a Sandown handicap over 7f. He found just one too good and he was sent off favourite on his next outing over the same C&D.
Oisin Murphy reported after that race that his mount was slowly away. He was, but Murphy took a bit of a pull too which was strange given this horse’s running style. He likes to get on with things out in front and his race was over before it really began. Josephine Gordon takes over today and hopefully there are no similar antics at the start.
If this horse breaks well from stall 3 I think he could go very close. The stiff 7f at Sandown probably just stretched his stamina when he was 2nd and this test should suit better. His half-brother, The Confessor, was a C&D winner so hopefully Run To Freedom follows in his hoofsteps. At odds of 8/1, he is the each way selection.
Goodwood and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Run To Freedom e/w @ 8/1 NB
1.55 Goodwood – Stewards’ Sprint Handicap (Class 2)
Just the 28 will go to post in this consolation race for the Stewards’ Cup. Every winner of this race since 2001 has had a single figure draw. It is really difficult to get a good position from a high draw so it might pay to focus on those drawn 9 or lower. The one I like is Joe Tuite’s 6yo, Kimifive. This son of Born To Sea ran a huge race in the Stewards’ Cup here last season off 92. He was beat just a head by Summerghand and he could gain some compensation today off 1lb lower. Rhys Clutterbuck takes off 5lbs too so he is effectively in off 86.
This horse had been running well this season without really threatening to win. His last run at Ascot a week ago was his poorest effort but I reckon that run was just to keep him ticking over for his return to Goodwood. He is something of a course specialist and he rarely runs a bad race here. His course form figures read 310623 with the ‘0’ coming when he was drawn in the car park. He will start from stall 7 today and if he finds the gaps in the closing stages, he looks primed to run a big one. At odds of 18/1, Kimifive is the each way selection.
Goodwood and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Kimifive e/w @ 18/1 NAP (6 places)
2.10 Newmarket – Fillies’ Nursery Handicap (Class 2)
We are on the July course at Newmarket and the first race from there is this 6f nursery handicap. There should be beautiful, good ground after 5mm of rain fell on Friday. Symphony Perfect looks the most obvious one on form. His form was boosted massively by Gubbass at Goodwood during the week. He was only 0.5L behind him in the Super Sprint at Newbury, getting 4lbs, and he gets in here off 86. The 3rd home in the Super Sprint, Delmona, also ran a huge race in an Ascot G3 and she is now rated 96. 5/1 will look a big price in hindsight if he repeats that level of form in this handicap.
The rest of these are harder to weigh up. Four of them are making their handicap bows and are probably best watched. One that could be potentially decently treated is Rosa Mystica. This Mehmas filly is in off 70 here and George Rooke claims 3lbs. She also ran in the Super Sprint last time, getting 1lb from Perfect Symphony. There was only 3L between them and the Hughes filly is now 19lb better off when her jockey’s claim is considered. Good ground suits and given the swing in the weights, she is the each way selection at 14/1.
Goodwood and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Rosa Mystica e/w @ 14/1 (4 places)
2.30 Goodwood – Summer Handicap (Class 2)
A maximum field of 14 stayers will go to post for this 14f handicap. Our November Handicap bet from last season, Rhythmic Intent is tempting at 12/1. He is 2lbs higher now and most importantly, the ground probably isn’t testing enough. One horse that should relish the good to soft ground at Goodwood is former course winner Urban Artist. This fella is in off a mark of 99 having been dropped 2lbs after his last run at Pontefract.
He has been a very consistent sort for Hughie Morrison since switching from jumping to the flat. The 6yo son of Cityscape has failed to finish out of the first three on his last six outings and three of those runs were winning ones. He was entitled to need his comeback on soft at York but it was still a decent effort in Group 3 company. Fast ground was a valid excuse the last day and he will be much more at home on this good to soft ground. I believe that a repeat of his G3 run would see him in the frame in this and at odds of 9/1 he should make a bold bid.
Goodwood and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Urban Artist e/w @ 9/1
2.45 Newmarket – Chalice Stakes (Listed)
Salsada is clearly a bit of a diva given her antics behind the stalls last season. After a fine effort in Listed company at Doncaster (10f sft) she blotted her copybook by refusing to go into the stalls on her next three starts. If she goes into the stalls she has the ability to go well but the ground may just be on the quick side for her. Sherbert Lemon would be of interest on softer ground too and to be honest, I think the horses at the head of the market will dominate this race. Nothing appeals as being especially overpriced so I’ll be keeping my powder dry. No bet.
Goodwood and Newmarket Saturday Tips: No Bet
3.05 Goodwood – Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group 2)
This race revolves around Wonderful Tonight. She was denied the chance to take on Adayar last week at Ascot because of fast ground. It isn’t as soft as it was when she won her last three races at Goodwood but I would imagine David Menuisier will allow her to take her chance. However, will she be as effective on this ground as she was at Ascot and Longchamp? I am not sure. She has never won on ground with good in the description. Her form figures on such ground read 425, in comparison to 31111 on soft/heavy. At the odds, I am taking her on.
Makawee is a mare that we have backed a couple of times, including on her last run at Haydock. The ground was too testing for her and you can put a line through it. This daughter of Farrh is much better on ground with good in the description and her career best performances have come at Goodwood. She won a 14f handicap off 100 last season on good to soft, giving Tribal Craft 7lb and a 6L beating. She was a short head behind Alpinista on her only other visit back in April. Makawee clearly likes it around here and David O’Meara has probably had his eye on this race since that April run. At odds of 28/1, she looks worth chancing each way.
Goodwood and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Makawee e/w @ 28/1
3.40 Goodwood – Stewards’ Cup (Class 2)
Like in the consolation race, it usually pays to side with horses drawn low. However, the draw bias isn’t quite as bad as in the lower grade race so it is possible to win from a middle to high draw. Last time out winner Zarzyni has a decent starting berth in stall 8 and, just like Venturous a couple of weeks ago, this David Barron horse could run big at a price. Formerly trained in Ireland by Mick Halford, connections picked this son of Siyouni up at the sales for £60k. He has wasted no time in repaying connections, placing twice and winning once from four runs.
He scored at Redcar last time over 6f and that seems to be his best trip. His only poor run for Barron came at the Curragh over 5f and he has won over 7f too. His racing style suggests that a race like this will suit him and he had a fair bit up his sleeve when winning at Redcar. He carries a 6lb penalty today but he might still have some wriggle room off 98. Jason Hart won on him on his first try last time out and he keeps the ride. As ever, luck will be required at Goodwood but at 25/1, Zarzyni is the each way pick.
