TXMarkets Formula 1 Tipster James Punt was in red hot form last weekend. He landed a number of tasty bets and he is hoping to keep the good work up this week. The Italian Grand Prix is one of the iconic races and the Tifosi expects. James Punt has produced an in depth and comprehensive preview. Check out his Italian Grand Prix tips below…

Italian Grand Prix Tips: Can Ferrari Build On Belgian GP Performance

From the magnificent Spa-Francorchamps circuit in Belgium, the F1 circus heads to the historic Monza circuit for the Italian GP. The big wigs at Ferrari will have been hugely relieved to have won last weeks race and now they must try and win their home race in front of their adoring Tifosi. The last time they managed that was back in 2010.

In the turbo-Hybrid era Mercedes has won all five races with 1-2 finishes on three occasions. The reason? Power. Mercedes have dominated because they have had the most powerful power unit for the last five year. Stick that into a very good chassis and you have the winning combination.

This year Mercedes do not have the most powerful engine, that now belongs to Ferrari. All season long they have dominated on the straights but that advantage wasn’t enough to have let them win up until last weekend. They had their chances but one way or another they failed to take their them.

Leclerc Hung On For Victory

In Belgium it finally all came together and they got their first win of the season with Charles Leclerc. It was a win but a very narrow one. Lewis Hamilton was closing Leclerc down fast in the dying laps and the gap was less than a second at the chequered flag.

Another lap or two and it could have been another near miss. So even on a suitable track, Ferrari struggled to make the most of their advantage. It took a bit of work from Vettel to hold up Hamilton for just long enough to protect Leclerc’s lead.

The Monza circuit is even more suited to this year’s Ferrari than Spa was. The track is basically a long straight made into a loop with two long curves and three chicanes. 80% of the lap is taken flat out so it is the ultimate power sensitive circuit. The brakes take a beating with three very heavy braking moments going into the chicanes and the suspension must stand up to clouting the kerbs at high speeds.

Italian Grand Prix Tips: Cool Conditions Don’t Suit Ferrari

One of Ferrari’s weaknesses is that the car is very sensitive to low temperatures. When the track temperature falls they lose a bit of grip, the car understeers a bit more, the tyres start to slide and then degrade. That is what happened at Spa.

The cooler weather on the Sunday pushed Ferrari into the danger zone. Vettel couldn’t cope with it and was forced into a two stop race and even with their huge speed advantage from qualifying, Leclerc was very close to losing the race late on.

The temperatures this weekend will be fairly consistent with a forecast 25 degrees for race day. It will also be sunny on Sunday which helps make the track warmer so they should have suitable conditions on a perfect track. Add to this that Ferrari are due to introduce an upgraded power unit and it all looks very good for two wins in a row and an end to their win drought on home soil.

Ferrari Should Dominate Qualifying

There is no doubt that Ferrari will have a very quick car this weekend, the quickest by some margin in all likelihood, in qualifying at least. Things are closer on Sunday as Ferrari doesn’t use its tyres as well as Mercedes or Red Bull. In Spa Charles Leclerc was 0.763 faster than the nearest Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton.

Yes, Spa is a long lap which means you get bigger gaps, but it was a very healthy advantage. Qualifying is Ferrari’s playground now. The battle for pole position this weekend should be between Leclerc and Vettel.

The official Ferrari number 1 had to play a support role in Belgium and that should not be overlooked. It was a changing of the guard at Maranello. Vettel might still be the paper number 1, getting the big bucks, but in terms of performance, he is the number two.

The young Monegasque has three pole positions this season, Vettel just one. Leclerc struggled with qualifying early in the season. He was still learning the skills required to get the most from his car over a single lap. Ferrari worked with to do just that and he has improved hand over fist in a short period of time.

His nadir was in his home race in Monaco. Crashing in qualifying and having to start 16th. From that point onwards he has screwed his head on and the results have come. He has out qualified Vettel in six of the last seven races and was 0.743 faster than Vettel in last weekends qualifying. He looks good value to elevate himself to demi-god status in Italy by getting pole position on Saturday.

Italian Grand Prix Tips: 5 points Charles Leclerc to qualify on pole position @ 2.10 generally available

Mercedes remain a potent threat in the race however and Ferrari cannot afford to put a foot wrong otherwise they will be disappointed. They manged to get pole position here last year but in true Ferrari fashion, they got the wrong driver on pole, Kimi Raikkonen rather than Vettel. Things quickly got worse when Vettel crashed into Hamilton, ruining his race, but Hamilton was able to carry on, hunt down Raikkonen and take the win.

Red Bull are not expecting to join the party on this circuit. They are still down on power compared to Ferrari and Mercedes and have decided that this will be a good time for Verstappen to take the new spec4 Honda power unit. That means he will have to start from the back of the grid. Teammate Albon, who is not a fan of the track, took his spec4 in Belgium last week so he will not have a penalty this weekend. Red Bull have not even had a podium at Monza in the turbo hybrid era and they are eying the less power sensitive Singapore GP for their next win.

Italian Grand Prix Tips: Racing Point To Build On Belgian Promise

We got a nice win with Perez finishing in the points at Spa. It is traditionally a very strong circuit for the Racing Point team and they were on it again with 6th for Perez and 10th for Stroll. Monza is another historically strong track for the team.

They have scored points here for the last five years and a double points score for the last four, including three 6th places. Perez has finished in the points in six of his eight races here but he will have his work cut out to add to that as he is due to take a grid penalty for taking a new power unit.

That doesn’t mean he can’t score more points but he will just have to do it the hard way. Overtaking is relatively easy at Monza and as such qualifying position is much less important than race pace. The racing Point should have good race pace and Perez is very good with tyre management. That stands him in good stead for a long first stint and picking up places with that strategy.

Lance Stroll has finished in the points here in both his season’s in F1. They were both in a Williams and this year he has the same Mercedes power unit at his disposal but he is in a Racing Point, a better car than he has had for the last two years. His 13th in qualifying last weekend was a season’s best and as he had a grid penalty to take he didn’t do a second run in Q2. There was more in the tank but no point in running.

Italian Grand Prix Tips: 3 points Lance Stroll to finish in the points @ 2.25 with Marathon Bet

Italian Grand Prix Tips: 1 point Racing Point double points finish @ 4.25 with Sportingbet

Williams Could Surprise

Another team who has a very good record here is Williams. Yes, the habitual backmarkers have scored points here in all of the last five years and not only that, but double points finishes in all five years. Of course they used to be a decent team back in 2014 and 2015, but even in their wilderness years, Monza has always allowed them a shot at the points.

The reason being of course is that they have the Mercedes power unit. It’s all about power and just having the best engine has been enough. It will be harder this year for Williams. Their car is even worse than before and it is now Ferrari who have the most powerful engine. That means that Alfa Romeo and Haas have the punchers chance of nicking a point or two.

That said, odds of 101.00 for Kubica and 101.00 for Russell to finish in the top 10 are almost tempting. Stroll was 20/1 to do it last year and it came to fruition but they would likely need a hefty slice of good luck to do it this year.

Haas Hard To Fancy

Haas have the Ferrari power units but are a basket case. The car is basically pretty good but the team have no idea how to get the tyres to work over a race distance. They have only finished in the points once in the last seven races and that was in the crazy wet race in Germany. I can see them qualifying well thanks to Ferrari power and then slipping down the order as the race goes on. They have never scored a point here in their 3-year existence and it would be a little surprising if they did so this weekend.

Italian Grand Prix Tips: Alfa Romeo To Show Up Well

Alfa Romeo on the other hand are regulars in the points, at least in Kimi Raikkonen’s case. He was very unlucky in Belgium after he was hit by Verstappen at the start and the damage to his car meant two early pit-stops and compromised performance. He had qualified in 8th place and was starting 6th so it was a case of a lot of points missed for the Finn.

Giovinazzi had a very frustrating Belgian GP. His new Ferrari power unit blew up in qualifying and he was forced to start 18th, last on the grid with two cars starting from the pit lane. He ran an extraordinarily long first stint and was in a points scoring position before he crashed out very late in the race. That suggests that the Alfa Romeo is well suited to power sensitive, low downforce circuits. Is Giovinazzi capable of delivering only his 4th top tenth finish? Well if he can’t do it here then his employment chances for 2020 will be somewhere near zero.

Italian Grand Prix Tips: 1 point double points finish for Alfa Romeo @ 6.00 generally available

Raikkonen has scored in eight of the thirteen races so far and given an incident free race he will score more points this weekend. In its days as Sauber they only got one points finish in the last five years, but the Ferrari power units were not the best until this season and often they were having to use a year old spec to save money. This year they have exactly the same kit as Ferrari. In his last twelve races here Raikkonen has finished in the top ten on eleven occasions. Raikkonen will not take the latest spec Ferrari power unit in order to avoid a grid penalty on a track on which the team expect to go well on.

Italian Grand Prix Tips: 5 points Kimi Raikkonen to finish in the points @ 1.70 with Marathon Bet, Black Type

1 point Raikkonen to finish in the top 6 @ 6.00 with William Hill

Renault was a revelation at Spa. To qualify 6th and 7th on a power sensitive circuit was excellent. It wasn’t down to the fact that they had a big power unit upgrade (they decided against using it at Spa) but just that the car went well in a low downforce set up. The Monza set up requires the lowest downforce of the season which bodes well for them this weekend. More points are possible if this low downforce performance carries forward from Spa. There should be no penalties for the Renaults as they took the hit at Spa.

McLaren were puzzling in Belgium. They looked very much middle of the mid-field pack in free practice. Sainz then failed to get out of Q1 and retired from the race with power unit problems. Norris qualified 12th, started 10th and was running in an untroubled 5th place after the first lap until the penultimate lap.

Italian Grand Prix Tips: McLaren Could Struggle

He very nearly got his best F1 result despite looking relatively poor all weekend. He was helped by the fact that Magnussen was able to hold back the chasing pack for such a long time that Norris was protected and I suspect that McLaren will struggle again this weekend. They have failed to score a point here for the last four years.

Toro Rosso got both cars home in the points at Spa despite starting 13th and 19th. Kvyat who started 19th^, finished 7th. He had the new spec4 Honda power unit which will have helped but he made up most of the places at the start, avoiding all the bumping and barging at the first corner.

The team got their first and only Formula 1 race win here back in 2008 but in the turbo-hybrid era they have failed to score a point and like Red Bull they do not expect this to be one of their strongest races of the year.

Updates for Qualifying and the race will be posted on the TXOODS app as usual.

-JamesPunt