Kelso, Doncaster and Newbury Saturday Preview

I feared it was going to be one of those days last Saturday when Deyrann de Carjac fell. However, Hollie Doyle ensured we landed a winner on One Night Stand (adv 18/1). Iroko also ran on for 4th, advised e/w for 4 places at 20/1. Unfortunately, our last three selections all ran absolute stinkers but that’s the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Hopefully we can get a winner or two on the board this weekend to boost our Cheltenham betting banks. Check out Dave Stevos’ Kelso, Doncaster and Newbury tips for all live ITV races below.

1.15 Newbury – Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2)

A field of eight will go to post in this 26f veterans’ chase and it is hard to make a case for anything at a price. Encounter A Giant returned from a three year absence at Exeter a month ago but he showed nothing and was pulled up. Saint Xavier has never won over a trip this far and Minellacelebration just hasn’t been finishing his races off strongly enough. Christmas In April has run awful races the last thrice and the handicapper probably has Prime Venture in his grasp.

We backed Kauto Riko on his last outing and he ran a pretty good race without nicking place money. He finished off his race well and he should be well suited by this test. The ground should be soft enough for him and he is weighted to run well. However, 4/1 looks about right and I’m happy to just watch him today with a view to possibly backing him if he gets into the Ultima. No Bet.

Kelso, Doncaster and Newbury Tips: No Bet

1.32 Kelso – Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)

The ground up at Kelso is not going to be for the faint hearted. It is soft, heavy in places and that’ll suit some horses a lot more than others. The one I like here at odds of 12/1 is the Nicky Richards’ trained Nells Son. This son of Trans Island won his first two starts, a bumper on heavy at Ayr and then a maiden hurdle here over 16f on good. He was far from disgraced under a penalty upped to 21f in an Ayr Novice (sft) and he then produced a career best effort behind Jonbon at Haydock last time out (15.5f sft).

Nells Son was sent off at 50/1 in that Grade 2 and half a mile out it looked like he’d finish out with the washing. However, once he got rolling he stayed on nicely for 4th, just over 8L behind the winner and 3L behind the 3rd. On that evidence this 18f trip ought to really suit this 7yo and he should uphold the form with Donny Boy who finished 4L behind him in 6th at Haydock. Testing ground suits him well, Sean O’Keefe is a good booking and I think this extra two furlongs will enable him to get a lot closer to Richmond Lake. At odds of 12/1, Nells Son is the each way selection.

Kelso, Doncaster and Newbury Tips: Nells Son e/w @ 12/1 NB

1.50 Newbury – Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

This is not the best of races and in the hope that the drop in distance and return to Newbury sparks an upturn in form, I am backing Kalooki e/w for small stakes. Philip Hobbs trains this son of Martaline and he comes here on the back of a non-completion at Haydock (28f hvy) a fortnight ago. Hopefully it was just a combination of the trip and ground that caused him to pull up. Connections now drop back in distance and they’ll be hoping the first time blinkers help him to concentrate better.

This horse managed to win over 24f at Doncaster back in December. However, his other three victories have come at 21f/22f so today’s trip should suit him better. In March last year he was beaten a head over today’s C&D off a mark of 142 and he is only 1lb higher today. His form figures at Newbury read 1327 so he clearly likes this track and he’ll also handle the soft ground. Kalooki isn’t one for maximum faith but he is a decent price at 14/1 given his course form and at those odds, a small e/w interest is advised.

Kelso, Doncaster and Newbury Tips: Kalooki e/w @ 14/1(4 Places)

2.05 Kelso – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

It might be worth taking a chance on Democratic Oath in this 21f handicap hurdle. The Sandy Thomson trained son of Stowaway finished lame on his last start when pulled up at Ayr (16f hvy). However, if he can rediscover the form of his 17f, heavy ground Novice Hurdle win at Sedgefield from a year ago he is more than capable of making his presence felt off a mark of 120.

At the end of last season this horse changed yards, moving from Keith Dalgleish to Thomson. Presumably the plan was to embark on a chasing campaign but that has been aborted. He didn’t look a natural on his chasing debut at Newcastle and he wasn’t jumping well before his race ended prematurely at Ayr last time out.

Five different horses have come out and won eight races between them from the Novice he won last season so it isn’t bad form. He had a valid excuse for his last run and the return to hurdling gives cause for optimism. As does the fact that Ryan Mania has opted to ride him in preference to Get Out The Gate who is owned by the same connections. On this ground, it is easy to see why Mania made that choice. At odds of 16/1, Democratic Oath is the each way selection.

Kelso, Doncaster and Newbury Tips: Democratic Oath e/w @ 16/1 (4 Places)

2.20 Doncaster – Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed)

With a rating of just 115, Sweet Street looks a bit out of her depth in this 24f Listed hurdle. However, she has a couple of pieces of form that would give her a place chance here and Ian Power is the right man to ride this filly to get some coveted black type. This mare has done all of her winning on good ground. However, her best run arguably came when she was 4th in a Listed heat at Limerick (21f sft).

That was the day she should have got black type. She was detached as they turned for home but once Sean O’Keefe got stuck in after the second last, she rattled home and just failed to get up for 3rd. The winner of that race, Off Your Rocco, is now rated 133 and she was 7L behind him. She was only 5L behind The Little Yank, a horse that since placed in a hot Leopardstown handicap off 125 and who is now rated 129.

She also has form with Chemical Energy (rated 132) and 132 rated Listed winner Lunar Display on better ground at Fairyhouse. This mare is by a seriously good sire in Sholokov and McGrath will be desperate to get black type for her owner/breeder. We backed her at Leopardstown when she bombed out but this isn’t as demanding so hopefully, she repays our faith. At odds of 33/1, Sweet Street is worth a small interest each way.

Kelso, Doncaster and Newbury Tips: Sweet Street e/w @ 33/1

2.40 Kelso – Premier Chase (Listed)

Just the seven go to post in this Listed heat and to be brutally honest, nothing really jumps out as being overpriced. We backed Big River more than once last season when he ran terribly but he has now won his last two starts. He loves this track but the ground might just be on the soft side for him. Nuts Well would also prefer nicer ground and so would Dingo Dollar. Itchy Feet will relish conditions and he shaped well last time. However, the bookies haven’t missed him and at 4/1 I think he’s best left alone. Just like this race. No bet.

Kelso, Doncaster and Newbury Tips: No Bet

2.55 Doncaster – Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Gaelik Coast and Fanzio have been taken out of this race so unfortunately, it is another seven runner affair. Malystic is a horse I am a big fan of and if he was at his best he’d win this. However, he is back from a long break and he will probably come on for the run. The Big Bite is the market leader but he might need to drop a bit more in the weights. King D’argent is also above his last winning mark and he’d surely prefer better ground. Cheddleton is a very consistent sort but like the fav, he could probably do with some help from the handicapper.

Bun Doran is thrown in on his best form off 131 but the 11yo’s best days are behind him. If he could repeat the level of form he showed two runs back off 134, he could go close. Cedar Hill has won two of his last three and he has the potential to go well too. Those two will definitely handle the ground. Also, they both could be potentially nicely treated if they run to their best. So, I am going to chance a reverse forecast on Cedar Hill and Bun Doran for small stakes.

Kelso, Doncaster and Newbury Tips: Cedar Hill/Bun Doran reverse forecast

3.15 Kelso – Morebattle Hurdle (Class 2)

The Champ Buveur D’Air is back in action in this year’s Morebattle and I’d love to see him win. The former dual Champion Hurdle winner is now an 11yo and he’ll be heading back to Aintree to try and make amends for his unlucky fourth there last season. This looks a nice starting point for Nicky Henderson’s charge. However, he needed his comeback last year and you’d imagine it’ll be a similar story this time around. He’d like the ground to be a bit quicker too so hopefully he runs well, comes back in one piece and then goes and wins at Aintree.

Reign A Dark Horse

The one I’m backing at big odds in this is Some Reign. This fella is a risky proposition after his antics at the start the last twice. If he does get away on level terms, I think he is capable of running into a place for Rose Dobbin at a track he likes. The last time this fella completed he won a handicap chase at Musselburgh off 134. It has been a while since he was seen over the smaller obstacles but he has only finished out of the first three once in five hurdle starts.

The son of Kayf Tara is rated 5lbs lower over timber (132 v 137 chase). He has won off 133 and 134 over fences. So, he is handicapped to be competitive and he has course form figures of 2213223 with the win coming in a maiden hurdle over today’s C&D. Dobbin’s charge has form figures of 1244113 when returning from breaks of 90 days or more and he goes on any ground. At odds of 33/1 there are more than enough positives to warrant an e/w bet at 28/1. He probably would be the NB only for his antics at the start. 

Kelso, Doncaster and Newbury Tips: Some Reign e/w @ 28/1 (5 Places)

3.30 Doncaster – Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (Class 2)

I think the rank outsider Legends Gold could outrun her odds here for Ben Jones and Rebecca Curtis. This 8yo daughter of Gold Well was pulled up last time out at Wincanton. It was a rare poor effort from her but in her defence, the ground may have just been on the lively side. Today’s conditions will suit much better and if she can get back to the level she showed at Bangor and Newbury on her first two runs of the season, she could surprise a few with a bold showing.

On her comeback at Bangor (24f sft) she ran a cracker behind Snow Leopardess and Windsor Avenue. The winner was scoring off 135 and she followed up in the Becher off 140. After another win in a Listed heat at Exeter she is now rated 146. Windsor Avenue (off 143) was 2L ahead of Legends Gold and he subsequently won the SkyBet Chase off 1lbs higher. Legends Gold was racing off 131 and she is now 2lbs lower.

This trip on testing ground is what she wants. Her sole start on heavy saw her beat Eider winner Win My Wings off levels in a Ffos Las Novice Chase and four of her six career wins have come on ground with soft in the description. The form of the yard is a worry but they did have a winner last week so hopefully she’ll be alright. This mare definitely has a nice staying handicap in her, hopefully it happens for her today.

Kelso, Doncaster and Newbury Tips: Legends Gold e/w @ 20/1 NAP

3.43 Kelso – Novices’ Handicap Chase (Class 3)

Seven runners and not one of them is double figure odds. A trappy finish to the day and a race I’ll be swerving. No Bet.

Kelso, Doncaster and Newbury Tips: No bet

-DaveStevos