Kempton and Lingfield Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Kempton and Lingfield Saturday Tips
Sunday went well for us last weekend after our near miss with Thibault on Saturday. 28/1 e/w NB Howling Milan almost got us off to the perfect start when finishing 2nd. Our reverse forecast on Secret Investor/Clan Des Obeaux clicked and paid over £30. Beacon Edge also won well for us, advised e/w at 11/2, though there was a hefty rule 4. Unfortunately Gortroe Joe and Mack The Man let the side down but overall, it was a good day. Let’s hope for more success this weekend! Check out Dave Stevos Kempton and Lingfield Saturday ITV racing tips below…
1.50 Kempton: Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
We dive straight into Grade 2 action on ITV on Saturday at Kempton. The 20.5f Pendil Novices’ Chase kicks off proceedings and as is usually the case this close to Cheltenham, it is a very small field. The bookies have it between Ga Law and Tamaroc Du Mathan. There should be nothing between them if the assessor has got their ratings right. The former is unbeaten in three starts on good ground and gets his optimum conditions at Kempton. The 5yo son of Sinndar came unstuck on soft last time behind Allmankind. However, considering the ground it was a decent effort by Jamie Snowden’s charge.
Tamaroc Du Mathan bumped into Shishkin last time on soft (16f) and he couldn’t cope with that rival. He is unproven at this trip and the 6yo son of Poliglote might prefer a bit of an ease. Coole Cody is the elder statesman in the field at 10yo but he is not well treated by the conditions of the race. He’ll need to improve to figure, as will the outsider Son Of Camas. He is an interesting runner though and if his pedigree is anything to go by, he could outrun his odds on good ground. However, with no e/w betting available I’ll be sitting this one out. No bet.
Kempton and Lingfield Saturday: No Bet
2.05 Lingfield: Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed)
A field of 7 runner will line up in the stalls for this 5f Listed heat. Three of these are rated 100+ and they are all having their first runs back after a break. The fav Moss Gill (108) was beat 6L behind Dakota Gold last time out (5f sft) at Nottingham in October. Blue De Vega (102) was a further 2L back in the same race. Rocket Action (101) was beat 2.5L by Urban Beat in a Dundalk Group 2 on his last outing, also back in October.
Robert Cowell trains the latter two horses and on jockey bookings, it looks like Rocket Action is the first string. However, he has never won when returning from a break. Blue De Vega also usually takes a run or two to hit top form. The same sentiment applies to Moss Gill but one horse who won’t lack race fitness is Lord Riddiford.
John Quinn’s 6yo son of Zebedee is ultra-consistent and he is worth a crack at this level. He has yet to race at Lingfield but he has winning form at both Wolves and Chelmsford. He has landed the plum draw in stall 1, ideal for a horse that likes to make the pace. A rating of 98 leaves him with a bit to find with the Bethell and Cowell horses. However, there could still be plenty more to come from this fella. At odds of 15/2 Lord Riddiford is the e/w pick.
Kempton and Lingfield Saturday: Lord Riddiford e/w @ 15/2
2.25 Kempton: Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)
This year’s Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle has attracted a field of nine and it looks a tricky contest to weigh up. The one that interests me at the current prices is French raider Margaret’s Legacy. This 4yo son of Prince Gibraltar is 2/2 over timber. Yes, those wins admittedly came on very soft and heavy ground. However, his pedigree suggests that good ground will suit him even better. His Singspiel dam is related to a total of six separate winners and three of those horses were at their best on good ground.
The horse that finished 3rd, over 12L behind Margaret’s Legacy, when he won his maiden finished a decent 2nd in a Listed hurdle on his next start. The horse that finished 2nd to him next time at Cagnes Sur Mer, Le Petit Nice, won that Listed hurdle by 6.5L Now, how strong that form actually is remains to be seen. But, I loved how he jumped when winning on his hurdling debut and he looks a very uncomplicated ride. Ned Curtis, who rode 19 winners for Nicky Henderson, keeps the ride and at odds of 12/1 Margaret’s Legacy could give e/w players a good run for their money.
Kempton and Lingfield Saturday: Margaret’s Legacy e/w @ 12/1 NB
2.40 Lingfield: Winter Derby (Group 3)
The big race of the day at Lingfield is the 10f Winter Derby Stakes. A field of five will fight it out for honours in this Group 3 and a case can be made for all of them. Johnny Drama is the highest rated in the field (109) but he lacks a recent run. Also, his best recent form is over further. Felix is rated 107 and he went close in a Listed heat over C&D last time out. He won his only other start at Lingfield, a handicap narrowly off 92. Hollie Doyle is 2/3 on this son of Lope De Vega and Marco Botti has enlisted her services again today.
Forest Of Dean is extremely closely matched with Felix on their last two runs. He was a length behind Felix when they met at Wolves and he closed the gap to a head here last time. I wouldn’t be overly surprised if he finished in front of the Botti horse today. Power Of States has been kept busy this Winter and he has done nothing but improve. He took a 9.5f handicap at Wolves last time off 98 and he deserves to take his chance at this higher level.
Least Exposed
The least exposed one in the field is Father Of Jazz. The son of Kingman is rated 101 and he has won his last three starts. Beaten on turf on debut (strong form), he has notched up a hat-trick of all-weather wins since moving to Roger Varian. He destroyed his opponents last time in a handicap off 90 and his rating of 101 looks well deserved. However, he was a shade unruly in the stalls the last day and that is something to be wary of if you are going to back him.
All things considered, I think Forest Of Dean represents a bit of value at 4/1. His last couple of runs should have teed him up nicely for this. His 1.5L defeat of Johnny Drama at Goodwood is arguably the best piece of form in the race. He showed he handled this track last time when just behind Bangkok and Felix and at odds of 4/1 a win bet is advised.
Kempton and Lingfield Saturday: Forest Of Dean win @ 4/1
3.00 Kempton: Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
The last of three Grade 2 contests at Kempton on Saturday is the 16f Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle. Disappointingly, for each way players, only seven horses will go to post. Two of the top three in the market, Calico and Irish raider Cape Gentleman, have it to prove on good ground over hurdles. Calico did have solid flat form when trained in Germany on decent ground. However, it was bottomless when he won his hurdling debut at Ludlow.
Cape Gentleman has a similar profile to Calico. He won on good to soft on the level in France but it was heavy at Punchestown for his hurdling win (20f). Judging by his Irish Cesarewitch win on soft, 16f around Kempton on good ground may not play to his strengths. The favourite, Atholl Street, has already won twice on good ground over hurdles. So, there is no doubting his ability to handle today’s underfoot conditions. He holds an entry for the Triumph and he would want to be winning this easily if he is to have any chance in that race.
McCain’s Charge Overpriced
The other horse in this race who is going to relish the ground is Mackenberg. By Jukebox Jury, this 6yo has won on soft but his best run came on good ground at Carlisle. He won a novice by 9L and he followed that up with a decent effort behind Hooligan at Wetherby (16f sft). His next run at Aintree was extremely disappointing but he bounced back with a smooth win on the all-weather in a Jumpers’ Bumper earlier this month.
Sam Twiston-Davies takes over from Brian Hughes in the saddle and he has a decent record for these connections. He has 8 wins and 25 top four finishes from 57 rides for McCain and 1 win and 5 top fours from just 9 rides for this owner. With doubts about the conditions for some of his shorter priced rivals, Mackenberg appeals each way at odds of 14/1.
Kempton and Lingfield Saturday: Mackenberg e/w @ 14/1
3.15 Newcastle: Eider Handicap Chase (Class 2)
A dozen staying chasers will line up behind the tape for this marathon 33.5f contest. The ground will be on the softer side and stamina will still be the order of the day. The 2019 winner of the race, Crosspark, is back for another go but he is 15lb higher this time. He has finished 2nd on his last four starts and he looks handicapped to the hilt. Sam’s Adventure would prefer heavy ground and so would The Dutchman. Of those at shorter odds, Big River and Crossley Tender are interesting.
Big River should appreciate this trip and on the evidence of his two Cheltenham Festival runs, he won’t mind the drying ground. However, he isn’t the most reliable of horses and he tends to get too far back sometimes. Crossley Tender is totally unexposed at marathon distances and he is 2/2 over 26f, the furthest he has tackled. He has had a long and busy season though (8 runs). That has to be a worry coming into a race of this nature.
Outsider Could Go Well
Given the doubts about some of the more fancied horses, Friends Don’t Ask might be worth taking a chance on for Martin Smith with Max Kendrick taking off 3lbs. At first glance, this horse hasn’t got a hope at the weights. He is rated 97 and he is racing off a mark of 124, so even with Kendrick’s claim he is 23lb ‘wrong’ at the weights. However, I was very impressed with him last time at Fakenham when he relished the step up in distance to 29f (sft).
He skipped clear of Strictlyadancer in the closing stages and that horse was beaten nearly the same distance by Crossley Tender on his next outing. Cheque En Blanc was 12L behind and he won off the same rating as he was that day earlier this week. I think this extra 4f will really suit this son of Champs Elysees and his trainer must think so too given the distance he is travelling from his base in Newmarket. He isn’t one for maximum stakes but with 5 places on offer from SkyBet, I think he is worth a small e/w interest at odds of 50/1.
Newcastle Saturday Tip: Friends Don’t Ask e/w @ 50/1 SkyBet (5 Places)
3.35 Kempton: Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
A 24f, Grade 3 handicap chase closes the show on ITV4 on Saturday and 18 will go to post. The one I am very keen on here is Mellow Ben for Chris Gordon and Richard Johnson. This 8yo son of Beneficial loves good ground, as he showed when finishing a fine 3rd behind Cap Du Nord at Newbury two starts back (22.5f gd). He was beat much further by that rival next time over C&D, but that was on soft ground.
Mellow Ben was conceding 9lb to Cap Du Nord when just over 4L behind him at Newbury. He is now getting 4lb from that rival (when Jack Tudor’s claim is considered). That is a 13lb swing and should enable him to turn the tables with the Christian Williams horse. Richard Johnson is 4/27 with 11 top 4s when riding for this yard and while these owners have yet to have a winner at Kempton, from 10 runners 6 have finished in the first 4. This will be Mellow Ben’s first try at 3 miles on proper good ground and if he gets the trip (I think he will) he is capable of going very close.
