Kempton and Wincanton Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Kempton and Wincanton Saturday ITV4 Racing Tips
We had to make do with a solitary place last Saturday. Shakem Up’Arry ran a cracker in the Tolworth, finding just the favourite too good. Born Survivor didn’t try a yard judging by the hold-up tactics that were used. Regal Flow was running a big race before a mistake 4 out knocked the stuffing out of him. Totterdown didn’t get home under a very poorly judged ride. Hopefully we can get a winner on the board tomorrow, check out Dave Stevos’ Kempton and Wincanton Saturday tips for live ITV4 races below…
Kempton and Wincanton Saturday 1.10: Handicap Chase (Class 3)
A fairly ordinary class 3 handicap chase kicks off the live action on ITV4 on Saturday. A field of 13 are due to go to post at Kempton for this 20.5f heat and it looks an open affair. The ground is just on the soft side on the chase course and the one I like at a decent each way price is Theinval for Henderson and McGrath. This horse is a standing dish in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham every March. He was 3rd off 141 in 2017, 4th off 141 in 2018 and 5th off the same mark in 2020. All roads likely lead back to that race for him this season. However, he’ll need to go up in the weights to get in.
The son of Smadoun is now rated 138 and that probably won’t be enough for him to sneak into the Grand Annual. That probably explains why Nicky Henderson has decided to come back to Kempton with him. He had three runs over hurdles at this track at trips ranging from 16f to 21f. They resulted in form figures of 121. Jerry McGrath has been on board for 4 of his 6 career wins so while it looks like Pistol Whipped is the Henderson first string on jockey bookings, that may not be the case. Trip, ground and track all suit Theinval and at odds of 14/1 he is the each way pick.
Kempton and Wincanton Saturday: Theinval e/w @ 14/1 (5 Places)
1.25 Chepstow: Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
We get the added bonus of a couple of races from Chepstow on ITV4 on Saturday, including this 16f Grade 1 contest for the juveniles. Nassalam is the even money favourite for the Moores after his facile wins at Fontwell on soft and heavy ground. He won those two races by a combined distance of 118L and they earned him a rating of 140. However, none of the horses behind him have done anything for the form. This will undoubtedly be a whole lot tougher. He is proven on the ground though and that could count for a lot.
One that might have a squeak at a bigger price is Yggdrasil for Nick Williams and Gavin Sheehan. This son of Kapgarde shaped very well behind Elham Valley on his sole start at Sandown (16f hvy). He was beat 6L by that horse, who re-opposes here. I think he could get closer to that rival with that experience under his belt. Nick Williams won this race in 2013 with Le Rocher and in 2009 with Me Voici so it is clearly a race he targets. His last runner in 2017 finished 3rd too and hopefully Yggdrasil can sneak into the frame at odds of 20/1.
Chepstow Saturday Tip: Yggdrasil e/w @ 20/1
Kempton and Wincanton Saturday 1.45: Handicap Chase (Class 2)
A field of 15 chasers will fight it out for honours in this 24f handicap. It really is a wide open contest and any amount of them have some sort of chance. The one I like is King Of Realms for Ian Williams and James Davies. This 9yo son of King’s Theatre was a decent 4th in this last term off a mark of 139. He just got run out of the money close home and he is back for the repeat bid off 4lb lower. He is now definitely handicapped to be competitive as his last win came off 137, 2lb higher than he is today.
Bryony Frost rode this fella last year in this race and she was very aggressive on him. I am hoping that James Davies doesn’t go quite as hard from the start and conserves some energy for the closing stages. Good to soft ground is fine for this horse and he should strip much fitter after his low key return at Ascot. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few quid for King Of Realms and he is worth backing e/w for 5 places at odds of 16/1 with William Hill.
Kempton and Wincanton Saturday: King Of Realms e/w @ 16/1 (5 Places)
2.05 Wincanton: Dipper Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
It is a dire turnout for this year’s Dipper Chase with just 3 runners. Protektorat heads the market for Harry and Dan Skelton. This exciting young chaser has looked the part in two starts this season. He beat a horse called Malystic by 7L on his return at Carlisle and that horse won his next two. Last time out he scored by 17L at Cheltenham and Paint The Dream (23L behind in 3rd) dotted up in a handicap off 137 on his next start.
Messire Des Obeaux is rated 7lb inferior to the fav and he gets 3lb in weight from him. He beat a useful sort in Coconut Splash in a handicap last time off 138 and he had some solid G1 form over hurdles. Lieutenant Rocco shaped very nicely behind Fusil Raffles last time and he is definitely one to keep an eye on. However, with no e/w betting available I’ll just be watching this with a view to the future. No bet.
Kempton and Wincanton Saturday: No Bet
Kempton and Wincanton Saturday 2.20: Relkeel Hurdle (Grade 2)
McFabulous is a warm order to land this 21f Grade 2 for Nicholls and Cobden. He faces a total of 6 rivals and he comes into this after a good effort behind Thyme Hill and Paisley Park at Newbury (24f gd). On the evidence of that run the drop in trip to 21f looks sure to suit and he gets weight from 4 of his rivals. The slight worry for his supporters is the soft ground on the hurdles course at Kempton. He has won on soft but by far his best form has come on ground with good in the description.
At the prices I prefer the chances of Summerville Boy. He was just under 3L behind McFabulous at Newbury and he ran really well over an inadequate trip at Cheltenham last time out. Stepping back up in distance will really suit and he is 2/3 at around 20f. Unlike some of his rivals he will relish the soft conditions and the former Supreme winner has plenty of class. A repeat of the form of his Cleeve Hurdle 2nd a year ago behind Paisley Park (24f sft) would likely suffice in this contest and at odds of 11/2 a win bet is advised.
Kempton Saturday Tips: Summerville Boy win @ 11/2
2.35 Wincanton: Handicap Chase (Class 2)
At the time of writing 8 horses remained in this 20f handicap chase but it is likely to cut up. A few are double entered and Two For Gold, Tidal Flow and Erick La Rouge will likely run elsewhere if there are no meetings cancelled due to the weather. The smaller the field is the better it will suit Glen Forsa. This deeply frustrating sort looked a potential star in the making when slamming Kalashnikov in a 3 runner race by 19L at Sandown in Feb 2019. However, he unseated at Cheltenham on his next start and since then he has struggled for confidence.
His recent form is more alphabetical than numerical but I think this 9yo son of Mahler could bounce back with a good run here. It is a lot easier than the task he faced last time at Cheltenham. In this potentially small field he may well be able to dominate. Mick Channon has booked Harry Skelton for the ride and he often gets a great tune out of front runners. Skelton has a fine record for the owner of Glen Forsa, landing 6 winners from just 23 rides. This horse was placed off the same mark as today’s when 3rd at Newbury 3 runs back and at odds of 12/1 he is the each way selection.
Kempton and Wincanton Saturday: Glen Forsa e/w @ 12/1
2.55 Kempton: Silviniaco Conti Chase (Grade 2)
We have another very small field for this 20.5f Grade 2 chase. Imperial Aura bids to make it 4 wins in a row for Kim Bailey and David Bass. This son of Kalanisi won at Cheltenham in March and he is a chaser on the up. He scored in a Grade 2 at Ascot (21f sft) last time out, beating Itchy Feet by 5L. He is an uncomplicated ride, a good jumper and connections will be hoping for a win today and then it will be back to the Festival in March for a crack at the Ryanair Chase.
Riders Onthe Storm was bitterly disappointing last time and he is not one for maximum faith. The one that could give the fav most to think about is Clondaw Castle. He gets a handy 6lb from the market leader and he ran much better than the distance he was beat suggests at Cheltenham last time. He was 7L behind Mister Fisher (20f sft) but he was badly hampered at the third last fence. Only for that, he would have finished much closer to the winner. If he can avoid similar misfortune today he could run a huge race and a reverse forecast with Imperial Aura is advised.
Kempton and Wincanton Saturday: Imperial Aura/Clondaw Castle Reverse Forecast
3.10 Chepstow: Welsh Grand National (Grade 3)
I advised Big River ante-post for this race before Xmas at 25/1 and I am still confident of a massive run. This horse has lots in his favour at Chepstow. The heavy ground will be right up his street and he has bundles of stamina. He is on a competitive mark and the 11yo carries a nice racing weight of just 10st 8lbs. Hopefully racing goes ahead at Chepstow because I have high hopes for this horse and he is my e/w NAP of the day.
Evan Williams has the fav Secret Reprieve but he has to prove his stamina for this trip. At a bigger price Prime Venture is worth having a small saver on. We backed him in this last season and he ran a mighty race in 4th off 135. He is back for a repeat bid off 4lb higher and he looked as good as ever when hacking up at Sedgefield last time. Tom O’Brien’s quiet style should suit this fella well and I am going to back him each way too at odds of 14/1.
Welsh Grand National Tips: Big River already advised e/w 25/1 NAP; Prime Venture e/w @ 14/1 (5 Places)
3.30 Kempton: Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Listed)
A maximum field of 20 will go to post in this year’s Lanzarote Hurdle. We suffered heartbreak in this race last season when Debestyman unseated at the last with the race in the bag. Hopefully we can gain some compensation this year. The one I am relying on for redemption is Exod’ela. Trained by Jamie Snowden, this 7yo son of Saddler Maker ran a massive race at Cheltenham back in October off 125 (21f gd). He finished 5th, beat just 3.5L and he was very well backed from 25s into 12s just before the off. That suggests that connections believed he was feasibly handicapped and they were correct.
He ran poorly next time at Ascot but last time was much better at Bangor in a 3 runner race (23f hvy). That trip on testing ground was a shade too far and dropping back to 21f should suit. James Davies rides and he has 1 win and 3 places from 8 rides for Snowden. Soft ground is fine for Exod’ela, 21f looks his optimum trip and his trainer is in good form. If he can repeat the form of his Cheltenham run he won’t be far away and with 6 places on offer, Exod’ela is the each way pick.
Kempton and Wincanton Saturday: Exod’ela e/w @ 33/1 (6 Places) NB
3.45 Wincanton: Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Hopefully we can finish the day on a high with Jackson Hill in this 15.5f handicap chase. Milton Harris has had a decent season with his small string and this maiden has been knocking on the door in recent starts. He clearly isn’t the easiest to win with but he was very consistent over hurdles and he has shown more than once he is capable off his current rating of 111. This will be just his second chase start. He shaped very well on his debut over the bigger obstacles at Kempton (20f gd) before a couple of late blunders cost him dearly.
It was probably fatigue that caused him to make those late mistakes as the trip was a bit too far for him. He should be much more at home over the minimum distance and he has plenty of placed form on soft ground over timber. Daryl Jacob gets the leg up on him for the first time and he is 2/5 when riding for Milton Harris. Even with just 2 places available, Jackson Hill is worth backing each way in this open race at odds of 12/1.
