Leopardstown Christmas Festival Sunday Tips – DS
Leopardstown Christmas Festival Sunday Tips
News broke on Christmas Eve that Leopardstown would have to go ahead behind closed doors. It’s a real pity but I suppose at least racing is still on. Dave Stevos has already posted a couple of festive ante-post fancies for the King George and Welsh National. He’ll also be covering all the live horse racing in the coming days. Check out his Limerick and Leopardstown Christmas Festival Sunday preview and tips below.
1.10 Leopardstown – Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)
First up on Sunday on RTE at Leopardstown is this Grade 2 hurdle for the 3yos. This race has thrown up the occasional surprise in recent years. In the last seven renewals, three of the winners were sent off at double figures. Is there anything good enough to trouble the odds on fav, Fil Dor?
To be honest, the answer is probably not. Gordon Elliott’s son of Doctor Dino has won 2/2 over timber. He beat Lunar Power fair and square off levels the last day at Fairyhouse (16f gd). He has to give that horse 3lbs today but that is unlikely to be enough to reverse the form.
Previous to that he gave a stone and a 16L hiding to Sea Sessions at Down Royal (17f sft). That horse beat Calvados by 2L in a Listed Mares’ Hurdle at Aintree off level weights on her next start. Britzka beat Scenic Look by 6L when conceding a stone at Fairyhouse. Fil Dor beat the same horse by 19L conceding 7lbs. If they both ran to the same level again today, the favourite should win fairly comfortably.
Rebel Could Run Big
If anything is going to crash the party at big odds it could be Rebel Step. This fella was the best of these by some distance on the level with a highest rating of 93. He was running a big race on his hurdles debut at Punchestown before disaster struck. As they headed into the third last fence he was bang there, travelling well. However, he dived at the hurdle and took a tumbling fall.
Andrew Slattery’s son of Tamarkuz has form on ground ranging from soft to good to firm. So, the heavy rain that is forecast shouldn’t be an issue. He has plenty of ability, as he proved on the flat, and if he can put in a clear round on Sunday, it’ll be fascinating to see how he measures up against this lot. Fil Dor looks by far the most likely winner but at the prices, I think it’s worth taking a chance on Rebel Step at odds of 25/1.
Leopardstown Christmas Festival Sunday Tip: Rebel Step e/w @ 25/1
1.33 Limerick – O’Kelly Brothers Demolition Hurdle (4yo+)
The ground is already soft to heavy at Limerick. With more rain forecast before racing, it is going to be a bog on Stephen’s Day. It’ll be a day for the mudlarks and it won’t always be the best horse that wins, it’ll be the one best able to cope with the atrocious conditions. Quite a few of these have already shown form on heavy ground. Uhtred has won on soft but this will be the most testing ground he has encountered thus far. He is out of a Beneficial mare and by Fame And Glory so he is no banker to handle the conditions. The trip is an unknown for him too.
Daly Tiger has plenty of form on soft/heavy, including wins at Punchestown (19f) and Fairyhouse (17f). Noel Meade’s 8yo has been running in Grade 2 and 3 chases recently, finishing 2nd twice. He has by far the strongest form in this race, it just depends how he handles the return to racing over the smaller obstacles. Choice of Words is a former heavy ground winner but she has to bounce back from a poor run last time (19f yld). Perhaps the testing surface could spark her back to life but she has plenty to find with some of these, even on her best form.
Watch Walsh’s Mare
John Walsh nearly always has a winner at this meeting. He runs It’sallabouteve here and she is bidding to retain her unbeaten course record. She is 2/2 at Limerick, winning her bumper this day last year (16f hvy) and then scoring in a maiden hurdle (19f sft) last month. She only had 3/4L to spare in that maiden but she did it very nicely. The mare gave the impression that there could be plenty more to come.
This mare has a top class NH pedigree. She is by a seriously good sire in Doyen and she is a half sister to quality jumpers Balthazar King and For Good Measure. She is certainly bred to be a black type mare and you couldn’t blame Walsh for having a go in a race like this. This mare clearly loves this track, heavy ground is fine and she’ll have the assistance of a decent pilot in Donal McInerney in the plate. At odds of 10/1, It’sallabouteve is the each way selection.
Limerick Sunday Tip: It’sallabouteve e/w @ 10/1
1.45 Leopardstown – Novice Handicap Hurdle (0-123)
The Names Jock is a horse I have had my eye on for a while. I tipped him up earlier this season at the Galway Festival but he ran a stinker. That was on the flat off 92 and he is running off 121 over hurdles today. He has had just the five starts over timber. One of those was a win at Listowel in a maiden (16f gd). However, that ground isn’t essential for him as he proved when winning on the flat at Leopardstown on soft/heavy off 80 in October 2020 over 10f.
This horse has run poorly over jumps since his Tipperary Grade 3 third back in October (16f yld). His best effort since then came here over 12f on the flat when he was beat just 3L into 7th in a decent handicap off 86. Interestingly, The Names Jock seems to have an affinity for Leopardstown. He has run well in three of his four previous visits, producing form figures of 1027. The owner’s son takes off a handy 7lbs and given his record at the track, The Names Jock is the each way selection at odds of 25/1.
Leopardstown Christmas Festival Sunday Tip: The Names Jock e/w @ 25/1 Nb (6 Places)
2.20 Leopardstown – Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade 1)
Just the six will go to post in this Grade 1 Novices’ Chase and Ferny Hollow is odds on. Willie Mullins’ son of Westerner won the Champion Bumper in 2020 and he has won his only two starts since. On his hurdling debut and his sole start last season he lowered the colours of Bob Olinger at Gowran Park (16f hvy). He again impressed on his seasonal bow/chasing debut at Punchestown where he beat Couer Sublime by 4L.
He re-opposes here but if the bookies are to be believed, Riviere D’etel could pose the biggest threat. Gordon Elliot’s horse has blossomed this season and she is 3/3 over fences. Those three wins came by a combined distance of 45L and two of them came in Graded races. Any rain would have to be viewed as a worry though. She won her maiden hurdle on heavy but her best recent form has come on much nicer ground.
John Joe Has Talent
Rain would be a concern for Couer Sublime too. All his wins have come on yielding or better so connections will be praying the weather forecast is incorrect. Gallant John Joe returns after a mammoth absence. His best form would give him a real chance here. He was beat just 0.5L by Royal Rendezvous in a G3 on his last start in March 2020 and he is a 161 horse. Melon was only 2L too good for him at this meeting in 2019 and he was beat 3L in the John Durkan last month.
This son of Presenting has plenty of form on soft but if it is more testing than that, he could be in trouble. His sole start on heavy resulted in a 29L defeat and if the forecast rain falls, it won’t suit him. His long absence is another obvious worry but it’s worth watching the market to see if there is any confidence behind him. However, with just two places on offer, this is probably a race best watched. No Bet.
Leopardstown Christmas Festival Sunday Tip: No Bet
2.40 Limerick – Faugheen Novice Chase (Grade 1)
Farouk D’alene is the favourite for this Grade 1 for Elliott and Gainford. A former heavy ground course winner over hurdles (23f), this 6yo son of Racinger has won five of his six starts. On the evidence of his Navan win on chasing debut, this slight drop in trip is not a problem. He also remains undefeated on ground with heavy in the description. 5/2 looks a fair price and he is the one to beat.
The Gavin Cromwell pair look the biggest threats to the fav on paper. Gabynako was an unlucky runner up in the Drinmore (20f gd) and he has shown some form on heavy ground. However, his best two efforts have come on good/good to yielding and he could be one to back in the Spring. Vanillier was just 0.5L behind the fav at this meeting last season on heavy. He landed his chase debut on nicer ground at Punchestown and at the prices, he probably represents the best value of the Cromwell runners.
Master No Back Number
Back on bottomless ground after a fine effort on his chasing debut behind Bob Olinger, Master McShee looks a tad overpriced at odds of 25/1. He is trained by a small handler in Paddy Corkery and he is the best horse he has had. This son of Malinas was beat just 2.25L by Appreciate It on his hurdling debut at Cork (16f hvy). He was a 50/1 shot that day but he was a lot shorter on his next start in a maiden at the same track.
Sent off at 6/5, Master McShee destroyed his rivals and subsequent Listed winner Atlantic Fairy was 8.5L behind him (in receipt of 12lbs). Corkery went straight into handicap company at Leopardstown’s Xmas meeting and he made a mockery of his mark of 132, winning by 5L. His form tailed off in the Spring but that was probably due to the faster ground. His seasonal bow was a definite step in the right direction and if he comes on for that, I think he could run a huge race at odds of 25/1.
Limerick Sunday Tip: Master McShee e/w @ 25/1 NAP
2.55 Leopardstown – Handicap Chase (0-140)
The final live race on St Stephen’s Day is this exceedingly competitive handicap chase. Long time followers will remember how close we have come to landing a lovely touch with Golden Jewel at this track in the past. In 2019, at this meeting, he was an unlucky 3rd at 33s. At the Dublin Racing Festival a couple of months later he went even closer at 25s. The handicapper has caught up with him over hurdles though and he is back for another go at Leopardstown off a chase mark of 121. He is well treated but rain is a massive worry. He has won on heavy but his very best form is on nicer ground. I wouldn’t begrudge him the win but he is too short to back this time.
This is a very tricky race to read but at the odds, maybe Defan is worth backing e/w. Henry De Bromhead’s charge is a former heavy ground winner so rain won’t be a worry. He landed his handicap debut over fences at Listowel (17f gd/yld) off 111 and while he was beat 13L last time off his revised rating, that doesn’t tell the whole story. To my eyes he looked the most likely winner heading to the last but a loose horse ran into him and he made a hames of it. That cost him any hope of victory and I don’t think he should be written off on the back of that run. He is in off the same mark today and at odds of 11/1, he is the each way selection.
