Leopardstown and Doncaster Saturday Tips Dave Stevos
Leopardstown and Doncaster Saturday Tips
As far as Saturdays go, they don’t come much better than this. There is top quality action in the UK and Ireland with no less than nine Group races, including a trio of Group 1s. The St Leger is the highlight and you can see Dave Stevos’ ante-post preview for that race here. Check out the rest of his Leopardstown and Doncaster Saturday tips below.
1.10 Leopardstown – Champion Juvenile Stakes (Group 2)
The ground at Leopardstown is currently good after selective watering in midweek. A few showers are forecast but they are unlikely to be heavy enough to change the going. That will suit the vast majority of these 2yos but even so, this race is far from an easy puzzle to solve. The one that could represent a bit of value now stepping back up in trip and returning to nice ground is Manu Et Corde for Jim Bolger and Kevin Manning.
This son of Teofilo has had four runs so far. He was beat just 0.5L on debut at the Curragh (7f gd/fm). The winner of that race, Atomic Jones, re-opposes today. On his second start he ran below his best when trailing in 4.5L behind John The Baptist over 7f again at the Curragh. Bolger stepped the son of Teofilo up to a mile on his third start at Leopardstown. He stayed on strongly to break his maiden by 0.75L (Stone Age 1.25L back in 3rd).
Given how well he saw out the 8f that day it was surprising to see him dropped back to 7f on his first try in Group company. He could only manage 4th behind Point Lonsdale. However, the ground was soft and in the circumstances, it wasn’t that bad an effort. Conditions will be more suitable today and while he has 4L to find with Maritime Wings from that Curragh race, I think the trip, ground and track are all in Manu Et Corde’s favour on this occasion. 20/1 looks a shade generous and at those odds, he is the each way selection.
Leopardstown and Doncaster Saturday: Manu Et Corde e/w @ 20/1
1.40 Leopardstown – Matron Stakes (Group 1)
This is an absolute cracker of a contest and you could make a genuine case for 10 of the 13 runners. 3yos have dominated this race in recent years, winning the last six renewals in a row. Mother Earth represents that generation and she has serious form in the book with the likes of Snow Lantern, Alcohol Free and Lady Bowthorpe. She landed her second Group 1 of the season in France last time out (8f sft). However, she doesn’t need testing ground as she showed when winning the Newmarket Guineas on good to firm. She deserves to be the market leader and she is the one to beat.
Not Much To Find
Another 3yo who only has 1.75L to find with Mother Earth from that Deauville G1 is Belle Image. This daughter of Kodi Bear has run massive races on her two tries at the top level. She ran an absolute cracker in the Irish Guineas when flying home for 4th (8f hvy) at 125/1, beat just 1.25L for the win. In France she again finished off nicely and she was only 1.75L behind Mother Earth at the finish.
Both those runs came on rain softened ground but her best 2yo form came on good. Her sole try on decent ground this season saw her finish well beaten in a Listed Curragh heat but I don’t think the ground was to blame. Her two best runs this year came when held up and that day at the Curragh Rory Cleary was probably a bit too forward on her. She is drawn in stall 12 today so I am hoping Robbie Colgan drops her out and comes with a late challenge. 2 of her last 3 runs have shown she can compete at this lofty level and at odds of 25/1, a small each way interest is advised.
Leopardstown and Doncaster Saturday: Belle Image e/w @ 25/1 (4 Places)
1.45 Doncaster – Portland Handicap (Class 2)
The first live race of the day on ITV on Saturday is the 5.5f Portland Handicap. This is wide open and at a price, I think Embour could be worth chancing each way. Trained by Ruth Carr, this horse ran a huge race in this contest back in 2019 as a 4yo. He was beaten just 1.5L into 6th off 97 and he is now 10lbs lower for his repeat bid. This horse can race freely and he has won when racing prominently.
However, I think some of his best efforts have come when held up off the pace. That was the case when he ran so well in this in 2019, it was also how he was ridden when he ran a cracker behind Justanotherbottle in the Great St Wilfrid three starts ago.
Dawson’s Only Ride
Ray Dawson takes over in the saddle and it is his only ride on the card at Doncaster. Embour is drawn in stall 10 so Dawson will have options. Premier Power and Justanotherbottle are drawn 6 and 7 respectively and they will likely set the early fractions. Dawson should be able to drop in behind those two and hopefully, come with a late surge.
He is 3lbs lower than the mark he last won off at Redcar in April and 5lbs below his highest winning mark. The son of Acclamation is also 8lbs lower than when beat just 2L in the Ayr Gold Cup. Just two starts ago he was beat just a head of 86 so he is in decent form and he has run very well on his three previous visits to Doncaster. Ground ranging from good to soft to good to firm is fine for him and at odds of 40/1 he is worth backing e/w for 6 places.
Leopardstown and Doncaster Saturday: Embour e/w @ 40/1 (6 Places)
2.10 Leopardstown – Boomerang Mile (Group 2)
The bookies make Mac Swiney favourite for this 8f Group 2. He has seriously good form but he simply isn’t as good on quick ground. He is a Group 1 horse on soft/heavy but on good or better he has been found wanting every time. Maybe his class will see him through but I wouldn’t touch him unless there is a significant downpour. One that looks overpriced is Erzindjan for Weld and Orr. This son of Lope De Vega’s wins both came on testing ground but his best form has come on good at this track.
He was a good 2nd to Maker Of Kings over C&D back in May, going down by 1.25L. He had Snapraeterea over 2L back in 3rd and he again beat that rival here in July over 9f (gd) when finishing 4th, 3L behind Japan and 0.5L ahead of Snapraeterea. Last time out Weld’s charge finished 4th in a C&D G3 behind Create Belief. He was 3L behind the winner and 2.5L and 1.25L behind Georgeville and Real Appeal respectively but that doesn’t tell the full story. Erzindjan got caught in a pocket at a crucial time and he could have finished a lot closer with a clear run. If he gets a smoother passage today he could be in the shake up at 22/1.
Leopardstown and Doncaster Saturday: Erzindjan e/w @ 22/1 NB (4 places)
2.20 Doncaster – Champagne Stakes (Group 2)
One of the most disappointing things about today is the fact we have two four runner fields. This is the first one and it makes zero appeal as a betting heat. Reach For The Moon is the market leader for the Queen and he was ultra impressive last time. The bookies make it a match between him and Lusail who is looking to win his third G2 on the bounce. Bayside Boy ran a blinder in Listed company on his last start but he’ll need to step up on that to trouble the two favourites. Twilight Jet has 2L to find with Lusail on their meeting at York but he had no excuses. It’ll be interesting to see who wins but this is a no bet race for me.
Leopardstown and Doncaster Saturday: No Bet
2.45 Leopardstown – Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1)
With just four running in the Irish Champion Stakes it is the smallest field this century. Usually Europe’s best horses turn up for this Group 1 but it is a purely domestic affair this year. Patrick Sarsfield looks to be making up the numbers and it looks a three horse race. St Mark’s Basilica is the market leader for O’Brien and Moore. However, all his best form is on ground with cut in it and today’s conditions have to be a worry.
Tarnawa is a 5yo and she is a fascinating contender. She only has to concede 3lbs to the younger horses and the Breeders’ Cup winner will relish the ground. The daughter of Shamardal handles all sorts of conditions but her very best runs have come on good or quicker.
Poetic Flare will also relish the underfoot conditions. He found just Palace Pier too good last time and the son of Dawn Approach looks well worth a shot at this distance. His spectacular performance at Ascot was one of the most visually impressive displays of the year and he has a serious turn of foot on fast ground. Once they don’t overwater both he and Tarnawa have big claims but I don’t see any value in their prices. I’ll be cheering for Poetic Flare but my money is staying in my wallet. No bet.
Leopardstown and Doncaster Saturday: No Bet
3.00 Doncaster – Park Stakes (Group 2)
Another relatively small field for this Group2 with just six due to go to post. The easier conditions at Doncaster will suit most of these, the one possible exception being the favourite Laneqash. By Cable Bay, this 3yo has form figures of 122 on good or quicker, in maiden, Listed and Group 2 company. On his sole start on rain softened ground he was well beaten. Now, it was heavy that day and the ground won’t be quite as bad as that on Saturday but even so, it could well be that he needs it quick to show his best form.
Danyah has won in handicap company on good to soft but his peak form has come on good to firm. Glorious Journey also has snippets of form on easier ground, including a G2 win on soft in 2019. Of the market leaders I would probably prefer to be on him.
Of those at bigger prices, Oh This Is Us could go well. The 8yo has already won two pattern races this season and he has plenty of form on good to soft ground. His form figures at Doncaster read 1237 with the 3rd coming in this race in 2018 when he was a short head behind D’Bai. He has disappointed the last twice but he isn’t the sort to stay in the doldrums for long. However, with just two places on offer this is another race I’ll be giving a wide berth. No bet.
Leopardstown and Doncaster Saturday: No bet
3.15 Leopardstown – Paddy Power Stakes (Group 3)
A field of nine are due to go to post for this 12f Group 3. Earlswood is a horse we have backed a couple of times this year. He won when we were on at the Curragh in May and he ran a blinder for us in the Irish Derby. Up until his last outing his best form came on soft/heavy but it wasn’t bad ground last time when he scored at the Curragh (10f yld). It was good ground when he ran well in the Irish Derby over today’s distance and a repeat of that run would see him go very close here. At odds of 9/4 he is the deserved market leader.
Is there anything worth taking him on with? Well, Innisfree finished nearly 4L behind Earlswood last time. However, it was his first run since November 2019 and you would expect him to come on leaps and bounds with that under his belt. The extra 2f here should suit the son of Galileo, as will the ground. Once he doesn’t bounce, he could be the one to put it up to the fav.
Sir Lamorak represents Joseph and he flopped last time in Longchamp. However, the ground over there was not to his liking and he will be more at home on the decent ground at Leopardstown. This is a big step up on his handicap efforts at Ascot (12f gd/fm) and here over 10f and it remains to be seen if he is up to this level.
Each Way Claims
One that looks marginally overpriced at 10/1 is Forbearance for Harrington and Foley. This daughter of Galileo gained a confidence boosting win at York last time (12f gd). That was a Listed heat but she proved he could compete at this level when beat just 2L in a 14f Leopardstown G3 on her penultimate start. She just didn’t quite get home that day and this trip suits her better. She is rated 105 which leaves her with a small bit to find but she’ll enjoy the trip, track and ground and at 10/1, she is worth chancing each way.
Leopardstown and Doncaster Saturday: Forbearance e/w @ 10/1
3.35 Doncaster – St Leger Stakes (Group 1)
We are already on Scope e/w at 50s ante-post for this race and I was delighted to see him declared. The drop of rain they got at Doncaster won’t inconvenience him and if you didn’t take the 50s, 40s is still on offer from a couple of firms. Hurricane Lane’s connections will be happy there was rain too and I am surprised to see he is on the drift this evening.
All the early money has been for Interpretation. Hollie Doyle rides for Aidan O’Brien and this colt is one of the few runners that has proven stamina for this distance. Given connections he is entitled to maximum respect but he’ll need to step up markedly on what he has achieved to date if he is to feature at the business end today. Of the remainder, Sir Lucan is probably a shade overpriced at 20s but I am happy to stick with my original selection.
Leopardstown and Doncaster Saturday: Scope e/w advised 50/1 ante-post
4.20 Leopardstown – Sovereign Path Premier Handicap (0-105)
The Petingo Handicap looks a minefield and I am giving it a miss. The final race on the card is this valuable 7f handicap and I am backing Petingo. We were on him last time out in the Irish Cambridgeshire and he ran a cracker. He was bang there in the firing line until his stamina ran out in the final 75 yards. Dropping back from a mile to 7f looks the right move and Ado McGuinness is a dab hand at winning these Premier Handicaps.
He landed this prize in 2019 with Current Option and Pierre Lapin looks like he has been aimed at this race. He has had a very light campaign since joining Ado in July and this is just his third run of the season. The son of Capella Sansevero won a G2 as a 2yo but he has failed to reproduce that level since. However, his last two runs showed he still retains lots of ability and he should enjoy the ground at Leopardstown on Saturday. Mikey Sheehy takes off a valuable 5lbs so Pierre Lapin is effectively 6lbs lower than last time. He is nicely drawn in stall 8 and at odds of 16/1, he is the e/w NAP of the day.
