Musselburgh and Sandown Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Musselburgh and Sandown Saturday Tips
It is a bumper day of action on Saturday and you can check out our Leopardstown fancies here. There is also live action on ITV4, including the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase. Check out Dave Stevos’ Musselburgh and Sandown Saturday tips below.
1.15 Sandown – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
A pretty poor betting heat kicks off the action on ITV4 on Saturday. Eight are due to go to post in this 15.5f handicap chase and it is hard to find an angle. Gunsight Ridge heads the market for Murphy and Coleman. This son of Midnight Legend scored over C&D on heavy last time and he is 5lbs higher today. It’ll be different ground on this occasion but he ran very well on good to soft behind L’Homme Presse previously at Exeter.
Frero Banbou is next best in the betting. He is another previous C&D winner, off 124 on good to soft last March. He won last time out off 134 and he is now up to a mark of 140. We backed Rikoboy last time out when he ran a cracker in 2nd behind Another Crick. He races off the same rating as at Wincanton (15.5f sft) but I’m not sure about the suitability of this track. Dolos and Tamaroc De Mathan have both been badly out of form and you couldn’t back either of them with any confidence.
The most solid looking option at decent odds is the 11yo Bun Doran. He has run well on all three starts this season. His best effort came last time here behind Gunsight Ridge and he is 4lbs better off with him for a 1.75L defeat. This ground will be fine for him and on old form he is absolutely chucked in off a mark of 135. At odds of 7/1, he is the e/w pick.
Musselburgh and Sandown Saturday Tips: Bun Doran e/w @ 7/1
1.50 Sandown – Contenders Hurdle (Listed)
Just the five will go to post for this Listed 16f hurdle and Song For Someone is the 9/4 favourite. A former Grade 2 winner on soft at Cheltenham, he has shaped well on both runs this term. On his comeback he finished 2nd over 19f behind Buzz at Ascot (gd). Last time he fought out the finish with Guard Your Dreams at Cheltenham, losing out to the Twiston-Davies horse by 0.5L. The Symonds horse is 6lbs better off now and that should enable him to turn the form around.
Goshen is 3/1 but who knows what version of him will turn up. It would take a brave man to back him with any confidence. Global Citizen could be the one to be on at 10/1. He ran really well last time, finishing 5L behind Champion Hurdle bound Tommy’s Oscar (Hunters Call 10L behind). Ben Pauling’s charge had a wind op before that run. Oftentimes, horses improve loads on their second run after that procedure. He is only rated 136 but he ran way beyond that last time out. A repeat performance should see him go close in this. At odds of 10/1, Global Citizen is worth backing e/w.
Musselburgh and Sandown Saturday Tips: Global Citizen e/w @ 10/1
2.05 Musselburgh – Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 3)
It might be worth taking a chance on Brotherly Company in this 22f Chase. Trained by Sandy Thomson, this horse is having his first run of the season. His lack of a recent outing isn’t a worry as he won after a similar break back in 2020. This son of Fast Company likes it at Musselburgh. He is a former C&D winner on soft but he prefers a sounder surface so the current conditions look ideal for him.
He is in off a mark of 117 today, the same rating off which he was narrowly beaten at Perth two runs ago (24f gd). His last win came off a mark of 111, so with Ed Austin’s 3lb claim he is effectively just 3lbs higher here. His career form figures at 20.5f to 22f read 2151421 and Austin has 2 wins and 6 places from just 15 rides for Sandy Thomson. At odds of 14/1, Brotherly Company is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.
Musselburgh and Sandown Saturday Tips: Brotherly Company e/w @ 14/1
2.20 Sandown – Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
I can’t see past L’Homme Presse in this 20f Grade 1. I was extremely impressed by the manner of his win in a Cheltenham G2 last time. He jumped like a stag and never looked in danger, making all for a 10L romp. He has now won his last three races by a combined distance of 29L and he is an extremely exciting young chaser. I think he’ll win this and he can go on to go very close at Cheltenham in the 20f novices’ chase.
Pic D’Orhy is actually rated 1lb higher than L’Homme Presse but I doubt that will be the case after this race. Yes, he won well at Ascot last time but he doesn’t jump as well as the Williams horse and he’ll be under severe pressure in that department if L’Homme Presse adopts the same tactics as last time. Mister Coffey is a maiden over fences and he has heaps to find on his overall form. He ran a nice race behind Jacamar last time out but he’ll need to find another chunk of improvement to figure today.
Fugitif For The Forecast
The one to chase home the fav could be Fugitif. This son of Ballingarry is trained by Richard Hobson and he is 2/3 over fences. The only blip came on his second run of the season at Haydock when there was heavy in the ground description. He bounced back well at Newcastle and while it may have looked workmanlike, there was a lot to like about the performance.
The 16f trip looked too short for him and this new distance should suit much better. He was a bit novicey at some of his fences but he was clever and didn’t make any really bad mistakes. The form of that win isn’t overly strong but he is a big, scopey sort and there could be plenty more to come from him. The L’Homme Presse/Fugitif reverse forecast could be the way to go.
Musselburgh and Sandown Saturday Tips: L’Homme Presse/Fugitif reverse forecast
2.30 Wetherby – Towton Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Just four runners and Ahoy Senor is long odds on. He couldn’t handle Bravemansgame at Kempton last time but he is back in calmer waters now. Is he as good as he looked when winning by 30L at Newbury in November? Possibly not but he is a solid 150+ sort and he should be well able to give weight away to this lot.
Saint Palais could be the danger. He carries a nice low weight and on the figures, he should actually beat Ahoy Senor. However, he is taking a massive step up in class here and odds of 11/4 are not big enough to tempt. Noble Yeats and Ashdown Lad complete the field and they are hard to fancy against the Russell horse. I would like to see Ahoy Senor win but this race makes no appeal from a punting perspective. No bet.
Wetherby Saturday Tips: No Bet
2.40 Musselburgh – Scottish County Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
John McConnell is flying right now and he runs two here. Anna Bunina is the shortest in the betting at 11/1. She is a good mare when she is in the mood but she didn’t run well on her first two starts of the season. The daughter of Poet’s Voice was beaten out of sight off 137 on her return over C&D and it wasn’t any better last time in a G2 at Doncaster when we backed her. It is interesting that Tom Scudamore, who has never ridden a winner for McConnell, is on her and Brian Hayes, who has steered five horses to victory for him, is on Pearl Of The West.
This son of Teofilo showed some positive signs when 8th at Leopardstown two runs back. He was beat a fair distance but in his defence, he prefers better ground than it was that day. McConnell’s charge was claimer ridden last time at Thurles in a mickey mouse race and Hayes takes over today. The ground is in his favour and he is a pound lower than he was when winning a big handicap at the Punchestown Festival in 2019. All things considered, 25/1 looks a generous price. Pearl Of The West is the e/w pick.
Musselburgh and Sandown Saturday Tips: Pearl Of The West e/w @ 25/1 NAP
2.55 Sandown – Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)
Finally, a decent sized field to get stuck into. This 23.5f Grade 3 handicap hurdle has attracted a max field of 18 runners and a case can be made for lots of them. The one I’ll take a chance on is Ask Dillon. This horse finished 2nd the last time this race was run in 2020. He chased home Limited Reserve off a mark of 139 and he is just 1lb higher today. Peter Kavanagh takes off 7lbs so he is effectively 6lbs lower.
That was on heavy ground and conditions will be very different today. However, his last two wins have come on good to soft and good so he is very versatile when it comes to ground. His last win came last April at Cheltenham off 144 (24f gd) and he is now 4lbs lower. Peter Kavanagh has won on two of his six rides for O’Brien and he had a sighter on this lad Haydock in November.
Ask Dillon’s best run of the campaign came two starts back at Cheltenham when finished 3rd, 5L behind Kansas City Chief. Last time over the same C&D he was nowhere near as good and he was eventually pulled up. He’s had a month off to get over that race and he is finally down to a workable mark. Given how well he ran in this race before, I wouldn’t be surprised if it has been the long term plan and at odds of 33/1, hopefully Ask Dillon bounces back to form.
Musselburgh and Sandown Saturday Tips: Ask Dillon e/w @ 33/1 NB (6 places)
3.30 Sandown – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Urgh, what a horrible race. Eight runners and nothing really stands out as being overpriced. Real Steel would win this doing handstands effectively running off 140 if he showed even 75% of his former ability.
It’s only five runs since he was far from disgraced in the Cheltenham Gold Cup but that race seems to have left a mark on him. He has been beaten 97L on his two runs this season and he failed to complete two of his three runs in 2020.
The bookies aren’t really taking any chances with the rest of them and given the amount of quality racing that’s on today, I am going to give this race (and the Edinburgh National) a miss. No bet in either.
