Musselburgh and Haydock Saturday Tips Dave Stevos
Musselburgh and Haydock Saturday Racing Tips
We will be mixing it up on Saturday with a flat meeting from Musselburgh and a jumps meeting at Haydock. This is usually a very tricky time of the year as far as punting is concerned. Most of the top jumpers are winding down after a long season and the flat horses are just getting up to speed. To be honest, I can’t wait for the flat season to get into full swing. Let’s hope we can get a badly needed winner on the board today, check out Dave Stevos’ Musselburgh and Haydock Saturday tips for all live ITV4 races below…
1.50 Musselburgh – Silver Arrow Handicap (Class 2)
The live action on ITV4 starts off with this 7f, class 3 handicap and 11 will go to post. It looks a very trappy affair and 8 of the 11 runners are coming back from their seasonal breaks. That makes the race even harder to read. However, one horse who does have a run under his belt and who looks temptingly handicapped is Muntadab for Roger Fell and Ben Curtis.
This lad is a 9yo now so he was more than entitled to need his comeback at Southwell. The son of Invincible Spirit likes it over today’s course and distance. He has had 5 runs here on good and soft ground, yielding 1 win and 2 very near misses. The win came off 97 back in 2017. On his penultimate visit last July he was only a nose behind Gabrial The Wire off 87 (7f gd).
The good to soft ground will suit this horse well and he is in off a mark of just 80 today. He won off 87 less than a year ago at Epsom and while he may not be the force of old, he is now handicapped to be competitive after a string of poor efforts to finish last season. Muntadab finished runner up here on his second run last year and he has a history of running well early in the season so Saturday may be the time to catch him. 14/1 looks a more than fair price and he is the e/w selection.
Musselburgh and Haydock Saturday Tips: Muntadab e/w @ 14/1 NB
2.05 Haydock – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Just the seven will go to the start to fight it out for the £18k first prize in this 16f handicap hurdle. I am hoping that the return to Haydock sparks Nordic Combined back to form in this. David Pipe’s 7yo son of Haafhd has been a very expensive horse to follow this season.
He has gone off at single figure odds on 6 of his last 7 starts and he has only troubled the judge on one occasion. That came over 19f at Taunton back in November on good ground off 129. He ran a respectable race next time at Cheltenham off 130 but it looked like he was in the handicappers grip.
The assessor has now dropped him to a mark of 121 after a string of poor efforts. That is a pound lower than the mark he hosed up off at Taunton on his final start of last season (16f hvy). It is rather surprising that this is going to be his first run at Haydock over timber given his flat form here. His first three visits yielded form figures of 212 over 12f and 14f.
That indicates that he handles this track well. While he has done all of his wining on soft ground, he has plenty of decent form on a sounder surface too. This is the most valuable race he has run in this season so surely he will be doing his best to win. Fergus Gillard knows the horse well and David Pipe has his string in good nick. At odds of 14/1, Nordic Combined is the e/w selection.
Musselburgh and Haydock Saturday Tips: Nordic Combined e/w @ 14/1 (3 Places Betfred)
2.25 Musselburgh – Royal Mile Handicap (Class 2)
Just the seven milers will line up in the stalls for this class 2 handicap. None of the field has had a run yet this season and it is a very tight heat betting wise. Naamoos carries top weight for Johnston and Curtis and his 17L novice win at Beverley (7f gd/fm) is probably the most eye-catching piece of form. You could probably blame the soft ground for his poor run in Listed company at Pontefract afterwards.
Forest Falcon is the market leader off a mark of 83, another Johnston horse. Franny Norton rides and he hosed up by 9L in a Yarmouth Novice on his final start last term. Heights of Abraham won a handicap at Doncaster last season off 78. He is 5lb higher on his return and it wouldn’t be overly surprising were he to run a big race. However, with just seven runners and no recent form to go on, this race makes no appeal as a betting heat. It will be well worth watching with a view to the future though.
Musselburgh and Haydock Saturday Tips: No Bet
2.40 Haydock – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
The one I Like at a nice each way price in this competitive chase is Tea Time On Mars. This 9yo son of Schiaparelli has long been viewed as a 3 mile chaser by connections. He is a big horse and he has run really well on his last three starts. He was entitled to need his comeback run in November when beat 24L. It was much more like it next time at Bangor. Lucy Gardner rode him to victory off 110 and he then followed that up with a super effort at Exeter (24f sft) behind subsequent Eider runner up Crossley Tender.
Last time out over 30f at Exeter he just ran out of puff in the closing stages and was mugged by a neck by Samuel Jackson. Tea Time On Mars is up to a career high rating of 119 now. This is undoubtedly his toughest test so far but he is lightly raced for his age and there could still be more to come. He did have a tough race last time but he has had a 5 week break and it was only his 4th run of the season. Good to soft ground should be absolutely fine for him and while she may not be the most stylish of pilots, Lucy Gardner gets a good tune out of this fella. The drop back to 25f will suit and at odds of 12/1 he is the each way pick.
Musselburgh and Haydock Saturday Tips: Tea Time On Mars e/w @ 12/1 (4 places)
3.00 Musselburgh – Scottish Sprint Cup (Class 2)
Michael Appleby has won this race for the last two years. Caspian Prince came home in front two years ago and he is back to try and reclaim his crown. He ran three cracking races in Meydan earlier this year and he won’t be lacking on the fitness front. However, he is a 12yo now and he may have to give best to one with younger legs. Paul Midgley is another trainer who has done well in this race in the past. He has multiple runners this season and the one I like sneaks in off a lovely low weight.
Son And Sannie, a former Irish performer, races off a mark of 82 today. It is a career high rating but he finished last season strongly with a win off 78 at Wolves. That was followed by a good 3rd, 1.5L behind the winner Lihou at Lingfield. That effort came off 82 and he was conceding 1lb to the now 90 rated Lihou.
This horse likes decent ground so the more it dries out, the better his chance will be. He was less than 2L behind the then rated 72 Strong Johnson when racing off 67 at the Curragh on good to firm (now rated 89). If he is ready to rock and roll on his return I think he is capable of being competitive here off his current mark of 82. Luke Morris has a good record when riding for Midgley and his wide draw in stall 13 is not a worry (3 of last 5 winners were drawn 11 or higher). At odds of 20/1 with Boylesports, Son And Sannie is the each way selection.
Musselburgh and Haydock Saturday Tips: Son And Sannie e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
3.15 Haydock – Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
I tipped up Exod’ela for the Lanzarote earlier this season when he was running off 125 (21f sft). He ran an absolute stinker that day for Jamie Snowden and Gavin Sheehan. In hindsight, I don’t think he enjoyed the soft ground. He had run well on heavy on his previous outing so I thought he would handle it but I think that he may need a bit of a sounder surface to show his best.
The last time he encountered good ground was at Cheltenham back in October (21f gd). He absolutely flew home to be beat just 3.5L into 5th off a mark of 125. The way he finished off his race suggested that stepping up to 3 miles on that sort of ground would suit. He gets his chance to prove that today and Jamie Snowden’s horses are in good form. Just 2 of his last 11 runners have finished outside the first 4.
Exod’ela races off 120 today, just 1lb higher than he was for his last victory at Ludlow. He is 5lb lower than he was for his last good ground run at Cheltenham so he is more than capable of being competitive off his current rating. Hopefully his fall last time hasn’t dented his confidence. If it hasn’t, this fella could run a massive race at odds of 25/1.
Musselburgh and Haydock Saturday Tips: Exod’ela e/w @ 25/1 (6 places Skybet)
3.35 Musselburgh – Queen’s Cup Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
The big race of the day at Musselburgh is the Queen’s Cup. This valuable 14f handicap will be contested by 14 stayers and a case can be made for quite a few. The one I am interested in is Alright Sunshine for Keith Dalgleish and Callum Rodriguez. This useful dual purpose horse will be fit from a couple of recent runs over hurdles. He chased home Rockstar Ronnie at Kelso on his comeback before he was outclassed in a Grade 2 behind My Drogo at the same track last time.
He races off a mark of 99 today, just 2lb above his last winning rating. The son of Casamento is a Musselburgh specialist. He has a 100% record at the track after four starts. Two of those wins came in bumpers at 16f and his flat wins came over 12f and 14f. Given that course form his trainer has likely had this race in mind for him for quite a while. With regular rider Joe Fanning unavailable, Callum Rodriguez rides. He has ridden plenty of winners for the yard and he has placed on 2 of 3 rides for the owners. Trip, track and ground all look ideal and he is on a decent mark. At odds of 10/1, Alright Sunshine is the e/w NAP of the day.
