Navan and Cheltenham Sunday Racing Tips – DS
Navan and Cheltenham Sunday Preview
To say Saturday was frustrating would be a massive understatement. Sole Pretender finished 3rd but most bookies only paid 2 places after the non-runners. Deyrann de Carjac at least finished 5th, but Strong Power ran a rare poor race. Zoffanien ran a massive race but again, because of non-runners, we missed out on place money. Wild Hunt ran no sort of race in the last. Hopefully Lady Luck is kinder to us tomorrow, Navan and Cheltenham Sunday tips are below.
12.15 Navan – Handicap Hurdle (80-116)
No bet in the maiden hurdle at Navan but I’ll be keeping an eye on Hartur D’Arc. The P2P and bumper winner was an expensive purchase and Tom Gibney will be keen to get off to a winning start over timber. He could be a nice prospect. In this race, I’m going to take a chance on Silvertown at big odds.
We backed this horse at Punchestown two runs back but his jumping over the bigger obstacles was a disaster. However, he did stay on well once the jumping was finished and I’m hoping that the return to smaller obstacles will show the son of Make Believe in a better light.
He hasn’t run over hurdles since April in a Novice at Wexford (24f gd). He was well beaten but he won a handicap around here on yielding ground over 20f back in March. That came off 109 and with Kieron Buckley’s claim he is only 1lb higher today. Gavin Cromwell’s horses are flying so at 33/1, Silvertown is the e/w selection.
Navan and Cheltenham Sunday Tip: Silvertown e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)
12.45 Navan – EBF Beginners’ Chase (4yo+)
Usually I’d skip these races but this one is a cracker. G2 hurdle winner Flame Bearer heads the betting for Mullins and Townend. He signed off with a fine effort behind Stateman in a Punchestwon G1 on his last start. This trip should be fine for him and if he transfers his hurdling ability to chasing, he ought to be winning this.
Colonel Mustard is next best in the betting. He’s one of my favourites and he owes us nothing having placed for us multiple times at huge odds. Is he a chaser in the making? The jury is out on that. He’s not exactly bred for it and I didn’t get the impression he was crying out for fences during his hurdling career. He’s not a backable price for me today and in any case, he is best watched.
Grade 3 Winner
Hollow Games won a Grade 3 Novice Hurdle over 20f here last season. His best form would give him a chance of getting close to Flame Bearer but this 17f trip is a worry. He won two bumpers in 2020 over 16f but he hasn’t raced over that short since. Heart Wood brings French form to the table and he is sure to be well schooled ahead of his chase debut. His pedigree isn’t that attractive though so there might be a chance of one sneaking 3rd at a big price.
At 33s, Aaron’s Day could make a decent chaser. He left an ordinary debut in this sphere behind when running a very nice race behind Impervious at Wexford (16f hvy). He ran well enough in a maiden hurdle on his only previous visit to Navan and 17f is fine for him. If one or two of the principals misfire, Aarons Day might sneak into the places at odds of 33/1.
Navan and Cheltenham Sunday Tip: Aarons Day e/w @ 33/1
1.20 Navan – Novice Hurdle (Grade 3)
Not a race I’ll be having a bet on. If it was softer then Plains Indian would be interesting at around 12/1. If it was good ground, Flaming Moon would be the pick at 25s. However, only six run and the Mullins and Elliott horses will probably finish 1-2-3. No bet.
Navan and Cheltenham Sunday Tip: No Bet
1.45 Cheltenham – Shloer Chase (Grade 2)
Edwardstone has been pulled on account of the ground so Nube Negra is now 1/7. It’s a pity that only four run now because I was tempted by Sizing Pottsie e/w at around 16s before the King horse defected. I think he has loads of ability when he puts it together, like he did when beating our old mate Master McShee at Navan last March.
He has a run under his belt and if Nube Negra isn’t firing, David Pipe’s charge is more than capable of putting it up to him. However, the Skelton horse ran his best race of the season in this race last year. If he turns up and is even 90% fit, he should win. No bet.
Navan and Cheltenham Sunday Tip: No Bet
1.55 Navan – Lismullen Hurdle (Grade 2)
A field of 9 will go to post for this 20f Grade 2 hurdle. Bob Olinger, a lucky winner at Cheltenham who flopped at Punchestown last time, is back over hurdles. Henry De Bromhead must want to give him a confidence booster after his bad experiences the last twice over fences. He was a top class operator over timber so the return to this sphere shouldn’t bother him too much. However, given how poor his last run was, I wouldn’t be steaming in at skinny odds.
Stayers’ Hurdle hero Flooring Porter was going well when falling in this last year. However, the fact remains that he has never won over 20f and all his best recent form is over 3 miles. He’ll definitely ensure it is run at a strong pace and he’ll try to make this a stamina rather than speed test.
Zanahiyr is the up and comer in this race. Gordon Elliott’s charge was bang in contention when falling at the last at Aintree on his first try at this trip. He’s been chasing home Honeysuckle over 2 miles and given that she has the Irish 2 mile hurdling division sewn up, it’s no surprise that connections are trying this fella over intermediate trips. 10/3 looks pretty short though and he is another best watched.
Out Of Form
If Jessica Harrington was in better form, I’d be tipping Ashdale Bob. He loves it at Navan, returning form figures of 112 here over hurdles. However, his stable is bang out of form. Harrington hasn’t had a winner from her last 32 flat runners and it is 42 runners and almost 6 months since her last NH winner. So, I’m instead going to back a horse that broke my heart at Cheltenham in March, Commander Of Fleet.
I tipped this horse up ante-post for the Stayers’. He swerved that and then I didn’t tip him in the Coral Cup. Gordon Elliott’s charge of course won that at odds of 50/1 and I almost vomited as he crossed the line. He had Ashdale Bob 6L behind at Cheltenham and he has a win and a place from two previous Navan runs. A strongly run affair over 20f might suit him more than most and with Elliott on form and Sam Ewing in the plate, Commander Of Fleet is the e/w pick at 14/1.
Navan and Cheltenham Sunday Tip: Commander Of Fleet e/w @ 14/1
2.20 Cheltenham – Jewson Handicap Chase (Premier)
I’m sticking to my guns with Forza Milan in this 27f handicap chase. We backed this horse last time out at Aintree where he wasn’t off a yard. Gavin Brouder never put him into the race but he did stay on well from an impossible position for 6th, a full 30L behind the winner Dingo Dollar. That race was over 25f and I believe this fella is absolutely crying out for a test like today’s.
He ran over 25f on this card last season and he stayed on very well for 4th after making a shuddering early error. Yes, he was beat 18L for the win by Strictlyadancer but only for that mistake, he would have finished a fair bit closer. He was in off a mark of 139 that day, today he races off 132. With Gavin Brouder’s 5lbs claim, he is effectively 12lbs lower.
James Nash probably had this race in mind ever since last season. He has got his charge back here off a lovely low mark and it’s the same ground as last year. The key will be his jumping. He’ll need to be better than he was at Aintree but hopefully, the first time cheekpieces will sharpen his concentration. If they do the trick, Forza Milan can hopefully stay on strongly to sneak place money at least at 20/1.
Navan and Cheltenham Sunday Tip: Forza Milan e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) nap
2.30 – Fortria Chase (Grade 2)
The feature at Navan is this Grade 2 chase and the one that interests me at a price is Fastorslow. Martin Brassil’s charge was a plot horse last year. Connections clearly lined him up for the Cheltenham Festival and they got him there off a mark of 141. The plan was foiled by Commander Of Fleet by a short head in the Coral Cup, the first time that this horse showed his hand over hurdles. I’d say he ran to around 146/147 that day and he went close again off 144 at the Punchestown Festival on his last start of the season.
The 6yo is bred to be a chaser and on his sole previous start over the bigger obstacles in France, he won. He has only finished out of the first two twice in eight career starts, and those two efforts were quiet runs in preparation for Cheltenham. JJ Slevin takes the ride and he is 2/6 when riding for Brassil.
There is, of course. a chance that the plan is to get this horse handicapped for chasing, so keep stakes small in case he is only out for a spin. However, I don’t think this horse is as far off the market leaders in terms of ability as the bookies do and at 33s, a modest e/w bet is advised.
Navan and Cheltenham Sunday Tip: Fastorslow e/w @ 33/1
2.55 Cheltenham – Greatwood Hurdle (Premier)
A big pot of £100k for this 16.5f handicap hurdle so most of them should be trying. If he can repeat the form he showed on his last start over hurdles (and gets a clear run), First Impression can go well here for John Quinn and Billy Garrity.
This 5yo was beat 2.5L by Zabeel Champion (and Castel Gandolfo) in that 16f heat at Haydock and he has had five solid runs on the level since. One of those runs resulted in a 10f victory off 80 at Ayr in September and he ran well again at Nottingham last time so he comes here fit and in form.
In nine runs over hurdles this fella has only finished out of the first three on three occasions. I was surprised the handicapper left his mark alone after Haydock and the fact that John Quinn hasn’t opted to use a claimer here suggests he thinks he is capable of going close off this rating. His run at Haydock suggest that too and while this is a tougher race, I don’t think he should be nearly 5x the price of Thousand Tears or over twice the price of I Like To Move It. Billy Garrity has a decent record when riding for Quinn in both codes and at 25/1, hopefully he can steer First Impression into the frame.
Navan and Cheltenham Sunday Tip: First Impression e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)
3.30 Cheltenham – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trial (Grade 2)
There should be festival clues aplenty in this Supreme Trial. The stoutly bred Springwell Boy is the market leader at 11/4. Jonjo O’Neill’s son of Kayf Tara’s sole defeat was a narrow one on debut behind Adamantly Chosen in a Punchestown Bumper. He has justified short odds the last twice but this will be a whole lot tougher. If his pedigree is anything to go by this 5yo is going to stay 22f at the very least so will he be vulnerable against something with more natural speed?
Father Of Jazz brings some very good flat form to the table. He’s been off since his last flat run for Roger Varian and he looks a fascinating recruit to hurdling. However, his turf flat form was pretty poor and his 104 rating on the level was earned on the all weather. He’s best watched. She’s Electric has the best hurdling form in the book, having won a Listed Mares’ race at Gowran last time. She’ll love this ground and Sole Pretender ran a decent race for Norman Lee here yesterday.
Shark Attack
The Shark Hanlon has had an unreal few weeks and the good times could keep rolling with Fascinating Shadow. This fella is 1/1 over hurdles and while he only won by a length, he did it very impressively. The runner up, Igraine, scored by 11L in a maiden next time, and they were a good distance clear of the third.
Fascinating Shadow’s jumping improved as the race went on but he was a bit sticky over the last. However, he should have learnt plenty from that experience and the Shark has given him a couple of runs on the flat since. He wants good ground, which he gets here, and Brian Hughes looks a significant booking. Fascinating Shadow looks an intriguing contender at 10/1 and he is the e/w selection.
