Newbury and Ayr Saturday Preview and Tips – DS
Newbury and Ayr Saturday Preview and Tips
After a bitterly disappointing Cheltenham, we bounced back in style last weekend. In the UK, Volatile Analyst (16s NAP) and Arthurs Realm (14s) both won. Primrose Ridge (40s) and Al Zaraqaan (14s) both placed. And finally, our 25/1 Irish e/w NAP, Comfort Line, ran a cracker to finish 2nd in the Lincolnshire. It felt like the flat was back, but we are heading back over the jumps this Saturday. The Scottish Grand National is the feature, check out Dave Stevos’ Newbury and Ayr Saturday tips below.
1.15 Ayr – Handicap Chase (Listed)
First up on ITV on Saturday is this 16.5f Listed Handicap Chase. Ten are due to go to post and this is a race that Southern raiders have dominated in recent seasons (Henderson 3; Skelton 1). Hatcher is the only representative from either of those yards this year but he is very hard to fancy on recent form. The handicapper has only dropped him 5lbs for five bad runs and he remains 2lbs higher than his last winning mark.
Rebecca Menzies is doubly represented with Sao and Return Ticket. The former horse has run well the last thrice but he may need softer ground and some help from the handicapper. Return Ticket, on the other hand, will enjoy the conditions. He should benefit from his break of 140 days as he has a decent record when fresh.
The son of Getaway is just 1lb above his last winning mark. He is a course winner over hurdles (16f gd) and while he did flop in this race last season, he burst a blood vessel. He has won twice after breaks of 139 days or more and the quicker the ground is, the bigger his chance will be. Sebastopol is the class horse in the race and he should win, but at odds of 14/1, hopefully Return Ticket gives him a run for his money.
Newbury and Ayr Saturday Tips: Return Ticket e/w @ 14/1
1.35 Newbury – Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Another open looking race and I think it could be worth siding with Pearly Island. Trained by Lucy Wadham, this son of Trans Island has looked to be crying out for a step back up in trip. He ran a cracker in a maiden hurdle at Fontwell on his penultimate start (17f gd/sft). It took him an age to hit top gear in that race and if it was a furlong or two further, he would have won.
It was therefore surprising to see this gelding dropped to 16f for his handicap debut at this track last time out (16f sft). Approaching the second last it looked like this horse would end up being beaten by half the track. Frost was very easy on him until after the last and he did make up an awful lot of ground to end up just 7L behind the winner Punctuation. He is 18lbs better off with that rival today when his jockey’s claim is considered and over this extra 3f on better ground, I think he could reverse that form.
Corey McGivern takes over in the plate and he takes off 10lbs. He has had 31 rides for Wadham, yielding 4 wins and 16 top 4 finishes. That’s a healthy frame hitting strike rate and hopefully he can enhance it on Saturday. This is a nice pot compared to the prize on offer in his last race so hopefully the handbrake is released. If it is, Pearly Island can run a massive race at odds of 16/1.
Newbury and Ayr Saturday Tips: Pearly Island e/w @ 16/1 NAP
1.50 Ayr – Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Back on a sounder surface, Lord Accord can resume his progress for Neil Mulholland and Richard Patrick. This fella has been hugely progressive on good ground and I really fancied him to run big at Cheltenham. However, the ground went against him and he didn’t turn up. Instead, connections have come to Ayr and it looks like they’ll get the conditions they need.
This horse was last sighted running a rare below par race at Doncaster. The ground was soft though and he is better judged on his excellent and consistent form on ground with good in the description. The 7yo has form figures of 116211211 on that type of a surface and that form includes a second at this meeting over hurdles last season.
He is in off a rating of 137, just 1lb higher than he was when winning a novices’ handicap impressively at Stratford. This will be his toughest task to date but this horse is still only 7yo and it remains to be seen if he has reached his ceiling on decent ground over fences. I think there could still be another chunk of improvement to come from this fella and he is the e/w pick at 15/2.
Newbury and Ayr Saturday Tips: Lord Accord e/w @ 15/2
2.10 Newbury – Veterans’ Handicap Chase Final (Class 2)
I love these races. It’s great that the old boys get a chance to shine on the big stage, although I think the minimum age should be 11yo rather than 10yo. The one I am taking a punt on in this race is the loveable grey, Valadom. This horse is now a 13yo but as he showed on his first run of the season, there is life in the old dog yet. He ran a cracker at Sandown behind Bali Bodi, finishing 3rd after forcing a strong pace.
The son of Dadarissime loves Newbury and I would imagine this race has been the long term plan. He ran a blinder in it last season off 130 and with Lily Pinchin’s 3lb claim he is back for one more go off effectively 18lbs lower. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to his last couple of runs as he was likely just being kept ticking over for today. His form figures at Newbury read 422 and at odds of 16/1, hopefully Valadom can add a 1 to that sequence on Saturday. He is the each way selection.
Newbury and Ayr Saturday Tips: Valadom e/w @ 16/1 (4 Places W Hill)
2.25 Ayr – Scottish Champion Handicap Hurdle (Grade 2)
I think Socialist Agenda looks a pretty big price in this Grade 2 handicap. Trained by Laura Morgan, this horse has won five of his seven rules starts. The son of Sir Percy was bought for just £4k by his trainer and he is proving to be quite the bargain. 3/3 in bumpers, it took him a couple of runs to get the hang of things over timber. The penny has dropped the last twice though and he has landed a novice at Catterick (15.5f sft) and a class 2 handicap at Musselburgh (16f gd) off a mark of 118.
He won that race doing handstands and he had Anna Bunina 6L behind. The handicapper took action and raised Socialist Agenda 12lbs to 130 for that win and the McConnell horse is fancied to turn the form around granted such a huge swing in the weights. She is just 6/1 to go one better than she did in this race last year and she probably was using that last run as a prep. Even so, I think Socialist Agenda could yet rate higher than 130 and at the current prices, I think he is worth a small each way interest.
Newbury and Ayr Saturday Tips: Socialist Agenda e/w @ 16/1
2.45 Newbury – Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 2)
Stuart Edmond’s has his string in great form and at odds of 22/1, maybe Marsh Wren can run well for him in this Grade 2. This mare has already won a bumper and a novice hurdle, on good to soft and soft ground. The bumper win came at Southwell in March of last year and she was put away afterwards. She ran poorly on her return but second time up at Fontwell (20.5f sft) it was more like it. She ran a grand race to finish 2nd behind Lady Of The Night.
The 6yo daughter of Schiaparelli got off the mark on her next start at Market Rasen (16f sft). Connections then decided to take a huge step up in distance to try and get some black type at Doncaster but she was found wanting for stamina over 24f on soft ground at Doncaster. She now reverts to 20f and on this nicer ground, that should suit her perfectly.
As was mentioned earlier, Edmonds is in flying form. He has had three winners and two places from his last nine runners. Ciaran Gethings has been on board for all of Marsh Wren’s runs and he is in the plate again. It is hard to weigh up how well handicapped this mare is off 116 but she could prove to be better than that. At odds of 22/1, Marsh Wren is a speculative e/w pick.
Newbury and Ayr Saturday Tips: Marsh Wren e/w @ 22/1 (5 Places W Hill)
3.00 Ayr – Champion Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
A good race but not one I’ll be betting on. We backed both Kiltealy Briggs and Il Ridoto at Cheltenham but neither delivered the goods. They are in calmer waters here but they are up against a trio of decent horses in Minella Drama, Do Your Job and Jacamar. Any one of the five could win and none of them look particularly overpriced. No Bet.
Newbury and Ayr Saturday Tips: No Bet
3.35 Ayr – Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
I could probably make a realistic case for a half dozen of these horses. I tipped The Wolf up for the Ultima but he swerved that and turns up here. He had an ideal prep run for this at Musselburgh two months ago. He proved his stamina over 31.5f when going down narrowly to Captain Cattistock and he is only 2lbs higher today. He’ll need a bit of luck given his hold up style but he will go very close if he gets a clear passage. 14/1 is a tempting price.
The Ferry Master and Hill Sixteen can’t be discounted either. The former horse ran a massive race in this last season when finishing 4th off 133. Sandy Thomson has got him back for a repeat bid off 5lbs lower and it would be no surprise if he made the shakeup. Hill Sixteen carries top weight and he got to within a whisker of Snow Leopardess at Aintree in December. He ran well at Kelso last time too but the ground just might be gone a bit too quick for him at Ayr.
Cool Mix is another one with claims. We backed him for this last season and he is effectively 13lbs lower for an 8L defeat this year. However, the bookies haven’t let him slip under the radar and he is just 11/1,
Bigger Odds
At bigger prices, El Paso Wood caught the eye in the Midlands National a fortnight ago. He hit the front a bit too soon and on the soft ground, he just ran out of puff late on. I think he’ll be better suited by the conditions today and if Philip Armson can restrain himself for a couple more furlongs than he did at Uttoxeter, this horse could well sneak into the money. However, at odds of 28/1, One More Fleurie could be worth siding with.
This horse has clearly been laid out for this race. He hacked up at this meeting last season, winning the Novices’ Champion Chase by 6.5L off 128. The horse he beat into 2nd subsequently won the Grand Sefton at Aintree. He is back for a go at the big one off just 4lbs higher and I would pay no attention to any of his three runs this season. He was never going to be suited by Ascot, Newbury or Cheltenham as all his best form has come on galloping, less testing tracks.
Will he stay 4 miles? He has yet to win beyond 24f so that has to rate as a negative. However, he ran through the line really well over 3 miles here last season and it was as slick a round of jumping as you’ll see from a front runner. This track plays to his strengths and if he gets the trip, One More Fleurie can outrun his generous odds of 28/1.
