Newcastle and Newbury Saturday Tips Dave Stevos
Newcastle and Newbury Saturday Tips
Jonbon dotted up yesterday in what was a farcical race. Charlie’s Glance could only manage 4th but he’ll be far better in a strongly run affair. Amour de Nuit ran a decent race nicking place money for us in 3rd. Thomas Darby looked beat 4f out but he finished best of all to land the Long Distance for us at 15/2. Drumlee Watar ran well for a long way but a mistake at the last cost him a place chance. Let’s hope we can get another winner on the board tomorrow. Check out Dave Stevos’ Newcastle and Newbury Saturday tips below.
1.15 Newbury – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Storm Arwen arrives in the UK on Friday night and there is rain forecast at both Newbury and Newcastle (and possibly snow). The ground is likely to ease from the good to soft it was on Friday. That will suit some of the runners in this 22.5f handicap chase more than others. The favourite Kalooki will be fine on rain softened ground and he won on his first run back over today’s C&D last season. He was narrowly beaten at this track over 20f (gd/sft) off 142 on his final run last term. Off the same mark, this 7yo son of Martaline is entitled to be in the shake up if fully fit.
He’s been well found in the market though and at bigger odds, the horse that beat him that day Espoir De Teillee could go well. Tom George’s 9yo son of Martaline is on his last winning mark. His last run suggested a return to form was imminent. He finished 3rd behind Paint The Dream at Chepstow (19.5f gd) and the return to Newbury and softer ground will be in his favour. On his sole start at Newbury he beat Kalooki by a head off level weights (20f gd/sft).
They meet on the same terms today and while it did look like Kalooki would have won if the race was over today’s distance, both horses had the benefit of recent runs whereas today, only Tom George’s charge has an outing under his belt. On that form here last season there should be nothing between them and odds of 16/1 look too big about Espoir Du Teillee in comparison to the 5s on offer for Kalooki. At those prices, Espoir De Teillee is the e/w pick.
Newcastle and Newbury Saturday Tips: Espoir de Teillee e/w @ 16/1 (4 Places)
1.30 Newcastle – Novices Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Just four runners in this handicap for the novices and with 20mm rain/snow forecast, it could turn testing. In the hope that it does, I am going to have a small play on the reverse forecast with Tupelo Mississippi and Winds Of Fire. The two of them have won on soft/heavy ground in the past and they’ll be delighted with the weather forecast.
Valleres is obviously a talented sort but his best rules form is on ground with good in the description. He admittedly did win his P2P on heavy. However, he’s been beaten a combined distance of 16L on his two previous starts on soft/heavy. Cooper’s Cross is by Getaway and like a lot of his progeny, he prefers a sounder surface. Brian Ellison and Evan Williams have their horses in good form so a small reverse forecast on Winds Of Fire and Tupelo Mississippi is the recommended bet.
Newcastle and Newbury Saturday Tips: Tupelo Mississippi/Winds Of Fire reverse forecast
1.50 Newbury – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Off a mark of 129 and with woman of the moment Isabel Williams claiming 5lbs, Annsam is surely overpriced here at odds of 12/1. We backed this son of Black Sam Bellamy at Sandown (20f sft) in March when, of course, he was pulled up in a Listed Handicap Chase. However, he just didn’t give his true running that day, jumping poorly, and he has a lot more ability than that.
Evan Williams has decided to revert to hurdles with Annsam and he was rewarded with an excellent effort on his return at Kempton. He only finished 4th of 6 but he was just 2.25L behind the winner and it was fine run off 130. The handicapper has now dropped him to 129 so with his jockey’s claim he is effectively in off just 124. That is 6lbs higher than the mark he last won off over timber at Ludlow. However, the horse he beat that day was Minella Trump (running off 123) and he is now rated 140. I think Annsam looks dangerously well handicapped and he won’t mind any rain. At odds of 12/1, he is the each way selection.
Newcastle and Newbury Saturday Tips: Annsam e/w @ 12/1 NAP (4 places Hills)
2.05 Newcastle – Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Listed)
With the ground likely to turn testing, this will be a proper slog. If the ground had stayed decent I would have fancied Nuts Well to run big but he looks up against it carrying a welter burden if it is softer than good. In the hope that the rain brings his stamina into play, I think Sam’s Adventure could surprise with a big run. He won the Eider last season off 139, confirming his liking for this track. That win came over 4 miles 2 furlongs but he also has winning form at 24f.
The key to this horse, especially over 3 miles, is testing ground. As I mentioned earlier he also likes it at Newcastle. He has had six runs there, producing form figures of 412221. Sam’s Adventure did run poorly on his return when pulled up but he usually needs a run or two to hit form. If enough rain falls and he puts in a clear round, Sam’s Adventure could challenge for place money at 28/1.
Newcastle and Newbury Saturday Tips: Sam’s Adventure e/w @ 28/1 (4 places)
2.25 Newbury – Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (Listed)
Another four runner affair but this one makes no appeal from a betting perspective. Soaring Glory is the class horse in the race and he will surely prove to be better than a handicapper in time. Gowel Road is progressive and he gets 8lbs from the fav. Captain Morgs is another talented sort but any rain will not be in his favour. The same sentiment applies to Onemorefortheroad. All of his best form is on good to soft or quicker. The top two should fight it out but I don’t see any value in backing either of them. No bet.
Newcastle and Newbury Saturday Tips: No Bet
3.00 Newbury – Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
A refreshingly big field of 21 will go to post in this year’s Ladbrokes’ Trophy. 26f is the trip for this Grade 3 handicap and some seriously talented sorts will line up behind the tape. Two Irish challengers head the market with Eklat De Rire edging favouritism. De Bromhead and Blackmore are no strangers to success in England and this talented 7yo has won the last four races he has completed. Ontheropes represents Mullins but he has plenty to do to defy a 12lb rise for his Muster National win.
Those two could be Grade 1 horses in a handicap and it is no surprise to see them chalked up at 9/2 and 13/2 respectively. The same could be said about Fiddlerontheroof though. He chased Monkfish home at Cheltenham and while he flopped at Aintree afterwards, it was much more like it at Carlisle last time. He beat what could turn out to be a decent yardstick in Pay The Piper and off a mark of 150, he appeals most of the shorter priced horses at 8/1.
Mister Could Make Presence Felt
At the other end of the market, the 2019 6th in this race Mister Malarkey is an interesting dark horse. He was beat 11L off 150 that day and he is now off 148 with Harry Kimber claiming 7lbs. This son of Malinas has won at this level before, beating Black Corton at Kempton in February 2020 (24f sft). His last win came at Ascot in December last year off 150 (24f hvy). When he is on his game he is a top class horse but unfortunately, he is quite hard to predict.
The 8yo was beaten out of sight on his seasonal return at Chepstow. He sort of built on that last time out when 5th at Ascot but he was still beat a very long way. With those two runs under his belt he should be fighting fit now and he won’t be too worried about what the weather brings. He isn’t one to be having the mortgage on but if he is on a going day, he is more than capable of hitting the frame off 148 at odds of 33/1.
Newcastle and Newbury Saturday Tips: Mister Malarky e/w @ 33/1 (6 Places)
3.15 Newcastle – Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1)
I was all over Silver Streak for this race last season on good ground. However, a loose Not So Sleepy carried him out before the second obstacle and that was that. The key to this dashing grey son of Dark Angel is nice ground. He simply isn’t as effective when it is soft so any rain that falls won’t be in his favour. The jolly, Epatante, will have no weather worries. She handles any conditions and last year’s heroine is the one they all have to beat.
Monmiral landed a G1 at Aintree last season and he represents the younger generation. Paul Nicholls’ 4yo remains unbeaten after five starts and he too won’t mind if ground conditions deteriorate. Sceau Royal is a 9yo now but he retains all his ability. He is on a hat-trick after wins at Listed and G2 level, both on good ground. The 16 time winner would be a popular victor but rain would be a worry. If it stayed dry, Silver Streak would be worth a bet but given the forecast, this is a race to just watch. No bet.
Newcastle and Newbury Saturday Tips: No Bet
3.35 Newbury – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
The live ITV action finishes off with this 16.5f handicap chase. There is heaps of early pace in this so it might pay to take a chance on one that is ridden more patiently. The one that fits the bill for me is last season’s C&D winner Sao. Trained by Rebecca Menzies, this son of Great Pretender made a very pleasing return to action at Aintree three weeks ago. He was beat just 2.75L into 2nd by Darling Du Large, a horse he was conceding 16lbs to. He came out and won off 6lbs higher next time out so it was a cracking effort.
The assessor raised Sao 1lb for that fine run and he is now in off 136. That is 1lb lower than when he was beat into 2nd by Fanzio at Perth and just 3lbs higher than when he won at Wetherby (15f hvy). Any rain would be welcomed by connections and this 7yo could still have more improvement in him. His form figures on soft/heavy read 1F221F11. When he has completed, he’s never finished out of the first two on that type of ground. He should get a fast pace to aim at here and at odds of 14/1, he is the e/w selection.
