Newmarket and Ascot Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Newmarket and Ascot Saturday Tips for ITV Live Races
Last weekend started poorly but couldn’t have finished any better. Milltown Star ran a decent race but missed out on place money. Zoetic could never land a blow and unfortunately Glory Fighter fell out of the stalls. Both Charterhouse and Ides of August were bitterly disappointing. However, Majestic Dawn did us proud, scooting to victory at 40/1. It was a stunning display and a superb training performance by the Coles. The ITV cameras are back at HQ again this weekend and we also have races from Ascot and Redcar. Check out Dave Stevos’ free Newmarket and Ascot Saturday tips below…
Newmarket Saturday: 1.40pm – Tattersalls October Auction Stakes (Class 2)
A nice easy start to the day with a 30 runner, 6f race for 2yos only. On the figures, Mighty Gurkha is the one they have to beat. He carries top weight of 9st 1lbs but he is rated 104 and he would be conceding a lot more weight to most of his rivals in a handicap. He won a Group 3 at Kempton last time out and he has solid placed form in the book too. However, it is due to rain heavily at Newmarket and soft ground would have to be a huge worry if you were backing Mighty Gurkha at around 2/1.
I’ll be chancing one at a much bigger price and at odds of 28/1, Hot Scoop could go well. Trained by Jamie Osborne, this son of Hot Streak has won on good to soft ground. That victory came on his penultimate start at Windsor. However, he followed that up with a dire effort at Chester. Rated 85, he carries 8st 7lbs so he isn’t exactly well treated by the conditions of the race. On the plus side, he has had a nice break since Chester and he should handle soft ground. At odds of 28/1, Hot Scoop is worth backing each way.
Newmarket and Ascot Saturday Tips: Hot Scoop e/w @ 28/1 (4 Places)
Ascot Saturday: 1.55pm – Rous Stakes (Listed)
Things don’t get much easier in this 14 runner Listed heat for the sprinters. Just like at Newmarket, heavy rain is forecast at Ascot and it could be extremely testing. That won’t bother Dakota Gold and he is the 9/2 favourite. Michael Dods’ inmate has been running very well in similar races this term and he won this last season on soft. He should be able to reverse the form of his last run with Tarboosh back on softer ground. He has obvious claims.
We backed Maygold when she ran at Ayr last month in the hope that the rain would come. Ed Walker’s daughter of Mayson needs soft ground these days and the more rain that falls, the better. She was only 11/2 in this race last year when she lost a shoe and was beat 4L by Dakota Gold in 6th. Her career form figures on soft read 5321163 and she is likely to be approaching peak condition after her two runs this term. Connections will be very eager to get some black type and Maygold is worth backing e/w for 5 places at 22/1.
Newmarket and Ascot Saturday Tips: Maygold e/w @ 22/1 (5 Places W Hill)
Newmarket Saturday: 2.10pm – EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2)
The one I like at a nice each way price in this Premier Handicap is Affable. Trained by in-form handler Ralph Beckett, this filly finally got off the mark last time on the July course. She won off 66 on her first try on soft ground and conditions clearly brought out the best in her. All of her previous runs came on good or better and while she showed some promise, soft ground could be the key to her.
Her pedigree is full of soft ground performers. Her dam is a half-sister to Prince Siegfried and Libertarian who both liked it soft. Ned Buntline is another one of her siblings that loved bottomless ground. She is 5lb wrong at the weights here and running off a 10lb higher mark than last time. However, there could be a lot more to come from this filly on easy ground. At odds of 16/1 Affable is the each way selection.
Newmarket and Ascot Saturday Tips: Affable e/w @ 16/1 (4 places Skybet)
Newmarket and Ascot Saturday: 2.30pm – Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)
Logician is odds on for this Group 3 and last year’s Leger hero looked as good as ever when winning on his return to action at Doncaster (10f gd). Stepping back up to 12f will pose no problems but he is unproven on ground softer than good to soft. It was good to firm when he won the St Leger and good when he won his G2 at York. His full brother Collide won on soft, which offers hope he’ll handle it but at odds on, I’ll be looking elsewhere for a bet.
The Coles did us a big favour last weekend with Majestic Dawn and I think Highland Chief looks capable of playing a big part in this. The son of Gleneagles ran respectably when 5th in France last time. It was his fifth start of the season and his only win so far came on his sole soft ground start at this track. That was his seasonal comeback and he is now 2/2 on soft ground (never won on good). His run behind Pyledriver at York looks alright now and in receipt of weight from his older rivals, Highland Chief is the each way tip.
Newmarket and Ascot Saturday Tips: Highland Chief e/w @ 7/1 NB
Newmarket And Ascot Saturday: 2.45pm – Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1)
A field of 12 will line up in the stalls for this 8f Group 1 for fillies and mares. Peaceful heads the market for O’Brien and Moore while Champers Elysees bids for the fairy-tale win and she is next best in the betting for Johnny Murtagh and Colin Keane. She was sold privately after her brilliant Champions Weekend win and it is hard to see Peaceful reversing that form on ground that should suit the Murtagh filly much better.
Those looking for a bit of each way value could do worse than take a chance on Billesdon Brook. The Richard Hannon trained filly is nearly always overlooked by the bookies. She won the Guineas at huge odds here back in 2018 and she rarely runs a bad race on the Rowley mile. She has a win and a 2nd from two runs on soft ground so the daughter of Champs Elysees will have no issues with the conditions. I’d love to see Champers Elysees win but at the prices, Billesdon Brook is the each way play at 12/1.
Newmarket and Ascot Saturday Tips: Billesdon Brook e/w @ 12/1 (4 Places)
Ascot Saturday: 3.05pm – Challenge Cup Handicap (Class 2)
Off a mark of 103 and with the ground likely to be extremely testing, Ropey Guest is the one to be interested in here. A maiden no more after a workmanlike novice win at Chelmsford, this fella finally makes his handicap debut after a string of superb efforts in Stakes company. He finished no worse than 4th in his previous 5 runs before his win. All those runs came in Group 3 and Listed company.
Some of his best form has come at this track, including a fine effort in 4th over this trip behind Molatham on his seasonal return. He will relish any rain that falls and if it comes up heavy it will further enhance his claims. There has been a few quid already for him but odds of 20/1 still represent decent each way value. Hopefully Ropey Guest adds a second win to his CV and he is the e/w NAP of the day.
Newmarket and Ascot Saturday Tips: Ropey Guest e/w @ 20/1 NAP (5 Places)
Redcar 3.25pm – Two Year Old Trophy (Listed)
A field of 22 will battle it out for Redcar’s Two Year Old Trophy over 5f. Richard Fahey has won this twice in the past three years so his four runners need to be considered. Shark Two One looks the most likely one from his yard after his win in a valuable sales race at the Curragh last time. Blind Beggar is also interesting as he has proven form on soft ground. However, Richard Hannon won this in 2013 and I think Kool Moe Dee could run a big race for him this year.
Dane O’Neill takes the ride on his son of sire of the moment Mehmas. He is out of a German bred mare with plenty of relations that relished soft ground. So, while he has never run on easy ground there is hope in his pedigree that he will handle it. He has a nice draw in stall 6 and the booking of O’Neill catches the eye. He has had 98 rides on 2yos for Hannon with 14 wins and 43 top 4s. If he takes to the ground, Kool Moe Dee could outrun his odds of 25/1.
Redcar Two Year Old Trophy Tip: Kool Moe Dee e/w @ 25/1 (6 Places)
Ascot Saturday: 3.40pm – Bengough Stakes (Group 3)
The closing live race of the day on ITV is this 6f Group 3 and 10 are due to go to post. With conditions likely to be right up his street, Snazzy Jazzy could be the one to be on here. This son of Red Jazz loves it when the mud is flying. His best effort this term came on his only start at 6f on soft when he went down by a neck to Archer’s Dream at Haydock. 4 of his 6 career wins (all at 6f or 6.5f) have come on ground ranging from soft to heavy so the more rain that falls, the better his chance.
He is already a G3 winner (in France) and his last win came in a Listed heat at Salisbury in 2019. He tends to hit form at this time of year and you can forgive him his last run on ground plenty quick enough for him over 7f at Goodwood. The drop back to 6f is a huge positive and Adam Kirby gets on well with him. At odds of 10/1, Snazzy Jazzy is the each way selection.
