Newmarket July Festival Friday Tips Dave Stevos
Newmarket July Festival Friday Tips and Preview
I’m not sure how we didn’t come away with at least one winner on Thursday. Elladora was only out for a spin but she wasn’t beaten that far and she’ll win races. Sam Maximus ran a mighty race for us in the July Stakes. He drifted to 40s but he belied those odds and he was only beat a neck for the win in 3rd. Apollo One ran a blinder too. He was just reeled in late on but we at least got out e/w money, advised 18/1. Surely we are due a change in fortune soon, check out our Newmarket July Festival Friday tips and preview below.
1.50 Newmarket – Bet365 Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
A 10 runner handicap kicks off proceedings at HQ on Friday. We backed Too Friendly last time at Ascot (12f gd/fm). While he only finished 14th of 17, it was a better run than it looked. Callum Shepherd had him very wide early on and when he came across to the pack he was still racing four horses wide. As they turned into the home straight Too Friendly travelled into the race sweetly and he was bang there until 2f out.
He admittedly faded in the closing stages but he wasn’t beaten that far (8L). Judging by how the race unfolded, dropping back to 10f looks the correct move. On his last start at the distance he was beat only 5.75L in a decent Listed heat at Epsom and his maiden win at Doncaster came over 10f too. I also believe he will be more suited by the smaller field today. If Shepherd can get a bit of cover early, he should finish off a lot stronger than he did at Ascot.
He races off a mark of 88 today and on a couple of his maiden runs, that should be workable. The son of Camelot beat a horse called Dhushan by 1.5L at Doncaster and he has gone on to win a handicap off 85 and he is now rated 92. I think it is far too soon to be writing off this horse and at odds of 33/1, a small each way bet on Too Friendly is advised.
Newmarket July Festival Friday Tip: Too Friendly e/w @ 33/1
2.05 York – William Hill Handicap (Class 4)
Unlike at Newmarket, there will be a bit of juice in the ground at York. It is currently good to soft and after a dry Thursday it will probably be good on Friday. One horse that should appreciate the conditions is Carlos Felix for Phil Kirby and Andrew Elliott. It is fair to say that this horse has failed to live up to his £700k price tag. He was gelded after failing to win his maiden as a 2yo. His sole victory so far came when winning a 12f handicap at Ascot on good ground this time last year.
He was moved from David Simcock’s to Dan Skelton’s at the end of last season. However, he showed no aptitude for hurdling. He is now with Philip Kirby and he is back down to his last winning mark after a trio of poor runs. His first run for Kirby was decent at Chester. He was beat just 2.25L into 2nd off 83 and he is now 5lb lower. His sole previous visit to York resulted in a heavy defeat but the ground was rattling quick. Back on a kinder surface he could run much better and at odds of 33/1, he is a speculative e/w selection.
York Friday Tip: Carlos Felix e/w @ 33/1 (4 places W Hill)
2.25 Newmarket – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2)
This is a Group 2 for the juvenile fillies and a field of eight are due to go to post. Just like yesterday’s race for the boys, Royal Ascot form is well represented. The 1-2-3 home from the Albany will renew acquaintances. We also have the 13th from that race (Flotus) and the Queen Mary 10th, Desert Dreamer. However, the ground was heavy at Ascot so there is no guarantee that the outcome will be the same on this much faster surface.
The one I like that didn’t go to Ascot and who has won on good to firm ground is Sadmah. This Frankel filly really impressed me with how she won on debut at Haydock. When Kevin Stott shook her up 3f out she looked green as grass and it took a couple of furlongs for the penny to drop. A furlong from home she finally got the hang of things and she gobbled up the ground to win going away by a length.
Given the way she performed at Haydock, you would imagine she is going to improve with that experience under her belt. She has a beautiful pedigree, by the sire of the moment Frankel and out of Golden Slipper winner Mossfun. She’ll be well suited by a strongly run race and she should get that here with Ellade and Oscula in the field. Ryan Moore looks a significant booking and she is proven at the trip and on the ground. At odds of 14/1, Sadmah is the each way pick.
Newmarket July Festival Friday Tip: Sadmah e/w @ 14/1
2.40 York – William Hill Summer Stakes (Group 3)
The one I like in this 6f Group 3 sprint is Declaring Love for John Butler and Shane Kelly. This filly has been transformed by the move from Charlie Appleby’s to her new surroundings. She failed to win as a 2yo but she has put that right this year with three wins from five starts. A novice at Wolves (6f) was followed by a handicap win at the same venue off 80. She subsequently scored in a Listed heat at Bath on her penultimate start (5f gd/fm).
Butler decided to drop her back to 5f last time in the G2 Temple Stakes at Haydock. The ground was heavy but she still ran a huge race, staying on really well to finish 4th, 1.5L behind the very talented Liberty Beach. The assessor handed her a rating of 97 for that run. If they are right, she has it to do against some of the higher rated ones here. However, this filly seems to be getting better with every run and that Liberty Beach form would entitle her to place claims at the very least now stepping back up to 6f. At odds of 12/1, Declaring Love is worth chancing each way.
York Friday Tip: Declaring Love e/w @ 12/1
3.00 Newmarket –Bet365 Trophy Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
Stamina will be the order of the day in this 14f handicap and 16 stayers will go to post. I was expecting a big run by Hyanna at Royal Ascot in the Copper Horse. While she didn’t hit the frame, she was far from disgraced in 9th. She pulled hard, was trapped wide and she also got hampered. So, she actually did well to be beaten just over 7L at the finish.
Eve Johnson-Houghton’s mare was racing off a mark of 96 that day. Georgia Dobie returns to the plate and with her 5lb claim, Hyanna is now effectively running off 90, just 1lb higher than for her last win at Windsor when Dobie claimed 5lb off 94. Another cause for optimism is this daughter of Champs Elysees’ liking for the July course at Newmarket. She has had two runs here yielding form figures of 31 over 12f on good to firm ground.
She is at her best on that type of surface as is evidenced by the fact that 5 of her 6 career wins came on fast ground. Admittedly, Hyanna has yet to win at beyond 12f. However, she went close over 14f at York on good to firm back in September 2020 off 99 so she has already proven she gets the distance. With 5 places on offer from a number of firms, Hyanna looks a solid each way bet.
Newmarket July Festival Friday Tip: Hyanna e/w @ 25/1 NB (5 places)
3.35 Newmarket – Falmouth Stakes (Group 1)
This has the potential to be one of the best races of the season. It is an absolutely stacked field and I would love to see Lady Bowthorpe win it. She has been a lucrative horse for us and on her day, she is a proper tool. She needs a strong pace to show her electric turn of foot. In a race as strong as this, surely it will be run to suit the talented Jarvis mare. She was only 1.5L behind crack miler Palace Pier at Newbury two runs back and she lost no caste in defeat at Ascot behind Indie Angel. That race wasn’t really run to her liking and if things go to plan today, she should be bang there. However, she may have to give best to Primo Bacio.
Primo Bacio was also a very nice winner for us earlier this season at York. She won in the manner of a supremely talented filly that day for Ed Walker and Andrea Atzeni. The daughter of Awtaad swerved Ascot due to the rain so she will be fresh as a daisy coming into this contest. She laughed at Snow Lantern at York and I am staggered to see that the Hannon filly is a shorter price.
Alcohol Free heads the market after her heavy ground win at Ascot. The Balding filly is clearly talented but she may want slightly easier ground. Mother Earth won the Guineas and the runner up from that race, Saffron Beach, is interesting too now dropping back in trip. However, I am hoping that we see another special performance from Primo Bacio today and she is the NAP of the day at odds of 6/1.
