Newmarket July Festival Thursday Tips – DS
Newmarket July Festival Thursday Tips
We finished up with a couple of places last Saturday. Method and Speycaster both rewarded e/w support, but that was it. Trais Fluors could never get into the race, though he did finish off well. It’s Good To Laugh was given a shocker of a ride, trapped widest of all the whole way round. Lord North was beat a length but only finished 4th. This week the focus switches to Flat HQ for one of their key meetings. Check out Dave Stevos’ Newmarket July Festival Thursday tips and preview below.
1.50 – Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3)
A few familiar faces will line up in the stalls for this 13f Group 3. We backed Masekela ante-post for the 2000 Guineas but he didn’t run. He has since run a cracker in the Epsom Derby, finishing off nicely for 4th. Yes, he was 8L behind Desert Crown but he was ahead of Changingoftheguard, a subsequent G2 winner at Royal Ascot. Westover has since boosted the form too so it is no surprise that Andrew Balding’s charge is as short as 7/4.
Walk Of Stars is next in the betting for Appleby and Buick. He bombed out in the Derby but he is a better horse than that. However, his best form has come with a bit of juice in the ground and he is probably best watched on his first start since being gelded.
Zechariah
Another horse we have backed a couple of times this season is Zechariah. We were out of luck on the first two occasions but the step up to 14f at Royal Ascot finally brought out the potential I saw in this horse last season. He was in front everywhere bar where it mattered most, going down on the nod by a nose to Eldar Eldarov. Unfortunately, he isn’t 20/1 this time and odds of 4/1 aren’t big enough to tempt.
Al Qareem has a good bit to find with the Meade horse on that Ascot form. This shorter trip may enable him to close the gap but it is hard to see him making all in this field. Deauville Legend is unexposed at staying trips and he went mightily close on handicap debut at the Royal Meeting off 89. This extra furlong should suit him and James Ferguson’s son of Sea The Stars is not without a chance.
Go Green
Ahmad Al Sheikh is an owner whose horses often hugely outperform their odds. Hoo Ya Mal did it in this year’s Derby, as did Khalifa Sat a couple of seasons ago. He has Green Team here, a son of Wootton Basset who is trained by in-form Owen Burrows. With a rating of just 95, he looks to be punching above his weight. However, he had an awful trip last time behind Zechariah and Al Qareem and if things had gone more smoothly, he could have got closer to the former horse and beaten the latter.
At the start he got squeezed badly and lost at least a couple of lengths. Turning in Marco Ghiani took him extremely wide but he still managed to get up for 7th. He only has 3.5L to find with Al Qareem, who is 8/1 here, and with Deauville Legend likely to take him on for the lead, they could set it up for a closer. Tom Marquand is 5/20 with 6 top 4s for this owner and he is on board for the first time today. If the first time cheekpieces eke out a bit more improvement, Green Team could stay on late for some black type.
Newmarket July Festival Thursday Tips: Green Team e/w @ 50/1
2.25 – July Stakes (Group 2)
A fascinating Group 2 for the Juveniles. The bookies are making it a match between Irish raider Little Big Bear and the big home hope, Persian Force. Aidan O’Brien’s son of No Nay Never landed the Windsor Castle at Ascot and the runner up Rocket Rodney has since franked the form. Persian Force won his first two starts before coming up short behind Bradsell in the Coventry. Blackbeard was a couple of lengths behind and he was since touched off in a Curragh G2 so arguably, that is better form.
Those two have obvious claims but with eight runners it might be worth taking a chance on one at more generous odds. At 20/1, Waiting All Night could be the answer for place money. This son of Rajasinghe won on debut at Wolves before disappointing on easy ground at Sandown. It was much more like it in the Coventry last time though when the 150/1 poke ran an absolute blinder to finish 5th. He was 0.5L behind Blackbeard, 3L behind Persian Force, 2.5L ahead of Harry Time and 4L ahead of Show Respect and King’s Crown.
The booking of Hollie Doyle is a positive given her good record when riding for Spencer. She has had 87 rides in total, yielding 12 winners and 35 Top 4 finishes. The rattling quick ground will suit this horse and I think he holds stronger form claims than 7/1 shot Mysterious Night. 20/1 looks too big to me and Waiting All Night is the each way selection.
Newmarket July Festival Thursday Tips: Waiting All Night e/w @ 20/1 NB
3.00 – Bet365 Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
A tricky 19 runner contest and at 50/1, Lil Guff could surprise with a big run. Trained by Dan and Claire Kubler, this daughter of Twilight Son has been kept busy this season. She has held her form well and her last win came in late May when she defeated Twelfth Knight by a short head off 82. That horse re-opposes today and Lil Guff is now 2lbs better off with him. Since then, this horse has run two very solid races off her revised mark of 86.
In the big 3yo 5f handicap at Royal Ascot she finished 9th, just 2.5L behind the winner Latin Lover. Navello was a nose ahead in 8th and Swayze 0.5L ahead in 7th and both those horses won their next starts in handicap company. All the horses that featured in the finish raced on the opposite side of the track to Lil Guff too, so it was a really good effort.
Last time out at Newbury she was dropped back in class and she was beat 2L into 5th. It was a messy sort of race and she didn’t get a clear run so I wouldn’t be too hard on her for that effort. It was a Mickey Mouse race too, worth just 5k, so perhaps connections were just keeping her ticking over. Off the same mark as Ascot and over this more suitable trip, Lil Guff looks worth chancing e/w at 50/1.
Newmarket July Festival Thursday Tips: Lil Guff e/w @ 50/1 (6 Places B365/Paddys) NAP
3.35 – Princess Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 2)
The feature and another one the bookies make a match between Yibir and Mostahdaf. The former horse narrowly heads the market now dropping back in Grade. He was last sighted running a cracker in Belmont Park in the USA, chasing home Highland Chief and Gufo in a G1. He was only beat 1.25L and a repeat of that might be enough.
Mostahdaf has been beaten the last twice in G2 and G3 company. He is talented, he has just lost the winning habit and he has to prove he can do it at this level. None of the outsiders really appeal with just two places on offer and I’m happy to give this race a wide berth. No bet.
