Newmarket and York Saturday Tips Dave Stevos
Newmarket and York Saturday Tips
Unfortunately, it was a struggle for us on Friday. Too Friendly got upset in the prelims and didn’t produce his best. Carlos Felix ran a stinker and I was gutted when I saw Ryan Moore going to the front on Sadmah. She’ll be better when more patient tactics are employed. Declaring Love was our only place at 12/1. Hyanna pulled too hard and got hampered, while Primo Bacio got stuck in a pocket and got out too late. She will win next time with a better passage. It is a bumper day of action tomorrow with no less than 11 live races on ITV. Check out our Ascot, Newmarket and York Saturday tips below.
1.45 York – John Smith’s Handicap (Class 2)
A nice and easy start to the day for punters! Just the 19 will line up in the stalls for this 8f handicap and it is absolutely wide open. The ground is currently good at York but with showers forecast there should be a bit of cut. We backed Hortzadar in the Hunt Cup at Ascot but the race turned out to be a non event for him. Jamie Spencer held him up and waited for gaps to appear but they never did. He never even came off the bridle and he ended up finishing down the field.
It is difficult to know if he would have won with a clear run. However, I am 100% certain he would have finished far closer than the 11.5L he was beat. Good/good to soft ground is absolutely fine for this horse and he is in off 96. That is just 2lb higher than he was for his win at Goodwood back in September so he is handicapped to be competitive.
He has yet to win from three visits to York but he wasn’t disgraced in them. I don’t have any concerns about the suitability of the track. David Nolan has won on him before and David O’Meara has won this race twice since 2015. Given his running style, a bit of luck will be required but if he gets the gaps at the right time, Hortzadar is capable of hitting the frame at odds of 16/1.
Newmarket and York Saturday Tips: Hortzadar e/w @ 16/1 (5 places W Hill)
2.05 Newmarket – Bedford Lodge Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2)
At a decent each way price, Professional Widow could be worth taking a punt on in this 7f fillies’ handicap. Hollie Doyle gets the leg up on Richard Spencer’s daughter of Markaz. She was narrowly beaten into 2nd on her only previous try on this filly on the Rowley course (8f gd). She then went on to win in a fillies’ handicap at Nottingham off 80 before finishing well beat on heavy ground at Royal Ascot off 83.
I am willing to forgive her that run on account of the testing conditions. Her sire Markaz loved fast ground and her two winning half siblings both did their winning on good to firm. These conditions should be a lot more suitable and Hollie Doyle is 9/54 with 20 top 4s when riding for this yard. Her win came over 8f but she has run well on both starts at 7f. She should be well suited by a truly run race over this distance. With 4 places on offer, Professional Widow looks well worth backing e/w at 18/1.
Newmarket and York Saturday Tips: Professional Widow e/w @ 18/1 (4 places W Hill)
2.20 York – John Smith’s Silver Cup (Group 3)
With rain forecast it might be worth taking a punt on Louganini in this 14f Group 3. Martin Dwyer rides this son of Zoffany for Roger Charlton and he has an excellent record on easy ground. This lightly raced 4yo has won three of his seven starts, a novice on debut and then a pair of handicaps at Haydock (10f sft) and last time out at Ascot (12f sft). That last victory came off 93 and it was a clear career best. He gave Group One Power 7lbs and a 3L beating and the handicapper hiked him to 100 for that performance.
The runner up has since run well in a couple of handicaps off 2lb higher. The 3rd, Calling The Wind, ran a massive race next time out in the Queen Alexandra at Ascot. Louganini comes into this as the lowest rated in the race but he won with plenty up his sleeve at Ascot and this extra 2f could elicit even more improvement. He only hit top gear inside the final furlong last time and he certainly wasn’t stopping at the finish. The more rain that falls, the better it will suit this horse. At odds of 16/1, he could go well for each way players.
Newmarket and York Saturday Tips: Louganini e/w @ 16/1
2.40 Newmarket – Bet365 Mile Handicap (Class 2)
Royal Fleet heads the market for this 8f handicap for the 3yos. Trained by Charlie Appleby, the Godolphin horse is unbeaten after two starts. The son of Dubawi won a 7f Kempton novice on debut last November, a race that has thrown up a couple of winners. He made his reappearance in a Yarmouth novice (8f gd/fm) in April and he made short work of his rivals, winning quite easily under a penalty by 2L. That form was boosted by the placed horses and he makes his handicap debut off a mark of 93. There is no way of knowing what this fella’s ceiling might be so he could prove to be a lot better than that opening rating.
Kaheall has won three on the bounce, including handicaps off 82 and 85 on his las two starts. All three victories came on the all-weather though. He did place on soft on debut but today’s conditions are a complete unknown. Latest Generation was beat fair and square off 93 last time yet he was still raised to a mark of 94. Nothing really jumps out as being overpriced in this 7 runner race. With just 2 places on offer, I am going to keep my powder dry. No bet.
Newmarket and York Saturday Tips: No Bet
3.00 Ascot – Betfred Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2)
There is rain in the air at Ascot and there is going to be cut in the ground. It is currently good to soft after 42mm of rain in the last week and there is another 4mm due to fall before racing. That isn’t good news for the likes of Duke Of Hazzard, Space Traveller and Haqeeqy, all of whom would prefer rattling quick conditions. Sir Busker and especially Century Dream will relish any further rain that falls. However, the bookies haven’t taken any chances with those two horses.
Tislit ran well over 9.5f on good to soft last time but whether this drop in trip is going to suit is up for debate. Top Rank has winning form on easy ground but he was no match for Century Dream last time out at Windsor. The one that looks a shade overpriced is Al Suhail for Appleby and Dobbs. This horse went close in a G1 at Meydan on his penultimate start (9f gd) behind Lord Glitters. He was gelded after a poor effort over the same C&D last time. He will appreciate the conditions on his return to action on home turf.
Al Suhail was beat just 0.5L by subsequent 2000 Guineas 4th Military March on soft ground as a 2yo (8f). He flopped in the Guineas but he showed his true ability on his next outing at Newmarket. The son of Dubawi dotted up in a Listed heat (8f gd/sft), beating Mystery Power by 6L. It is always dangerous to take Meydan form literally but Lord Glitters is an excellent yardstick so I think that form can be trusted. With ground concerns for plenty of his rivals, Al Suhail is the selection at odds of 5/1.
Ascot Saturday Tips: Al Suhail win @ 5/1
3.15 Newmarket – Superlative Stakes (Group 2)
This 7f Group 2 is for 2yos only and nine of them will fight it out for the £51k first prize. Dhabab is the favourite for the Gosdens and Frankie after his good effort in the Coventry last time. He was a shade unlucky in that race and it would be no surprise if he gains compensation today. Native Trail is next best in the betting and he is stepping up in class after a striking debut win at Haydock a month ago. That form hasn’t worked out but visually, he was very impressive. His trainer Charlie Appleby has won 3 of the last 5 renewals.
One that could go well at a bigger price is Austrian Theory for Johnston and Fanning. This fella has had just one run and it was a winning one at Doncaster (7f gd/fm). He was green when he came under pressure after travelling smoothly into the race. Once Fanning got him organised he was always going to hold off the challenge of Private Signal. That horse went on to score in a Leicester maiden next time and he re-opposes today.
Austrian Theory is by Awtaad, the same sire as Primo Bacio. He is closely related to G3/Listed winner Corsica and he is a half-brother to listed winner Tenor. I think he will have learned a lot from his debut win and he should improve plenty on his second start. 14/1 looks a big price and at those odds, Austrian Theory is worth chancing each way.
Newmarket and York Saturday Tips: Austrian Theory e/w @ 14/1
3.35 Ascot – Betfred Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
5f is the trip for this heritage handicap and on the rain softened ground, Zargun could run a big race now dropped back in distance. Scott Dixon’s charge flopped at Royal Ascot over 6f. However, his previous handicap runs at York would give him every chance in this. The son of Rock Of Gibraltar was sent off at 125/1 on his first turf run for Dixon off 94 (6f gd/sft). He made a mockery of those odds, finishing 3rd, just a length behind Mr Lupton.
Zargun ran another blinder over a furlong shorter back at York off 1lb higher on his next start (5f sft). He had Count D’Orsay nearly 2L behind him (getting 4lb) and he is 1lb better off with him today. Sunday Sovereign was 0.5L in front of him and he is 3lb better off with him. Scott Dixon has his horses in great form and David Probert is back on board. There is plenty of pace on his side of the draw so stall 6 should be fine. At odds of 40/1, Zargun could surprise a few with a big run.
Ascot Saturday Tips: Zargun e/w @ 40/1 (5 Places W Hill)
3.50 Newmarket – Bunbury Cup (Class 2)
He isn’t the easiest to win with, but I think Lord Rapscallion has the credentials to run a huge race in this 7f Heritage Handicap. Trained by Stuart Williams, this son of Alhebayeb ran a mighty race in the Buckingham Palace at Ascot last time out (7f gd/fm) off 93. He was hampered after 1.5f, he didn’t enjoy the clearest of passages and he even got hit on the nose by Conor Hoban’s whip 1.5f out. However, once he got into top gear he finished very strongly and he just failed to get up for 3rd.
Given the misfortune that befell him, it was a very brave effort. I thought he might have got a pound or two from the handicapper but he has left him alone. Hollie Doyle takes over from a 3lb claimer and she could prove to be an inspired booking. Nikita Kane was on board for his last two wins in Ireland so perhaps Lord Rapscallion is a bit of a ladies man. Good to firm ground is fine and 7f is his optimum trip. I think 18/1 is a more than fair price and with 6 places on offer, he is the each way NAP of the day.
Newmarket and York Saturday Tips: Lord Rapscallion e/w @ 18/1 NAP (6 places W Hill)
4.05 York – John Smith’s Cup (Class 2)
A maximum field of 22 will line up in the stalls for this year’s John Smith’s Cup. With ground on the easy side of good forecast, Dark Pine could go well for Dave Loughnane and Cameron Noble. This ex-Dermot Weld horse has proved to be a shrewd purchase by connections. Picked up for just 27,000 gns at the Autumn Sales, he instantly repaid connections with successive wins at Chelmsford (10f) and Wolverhampton (9.5f). That saw his mark rise from 78 to 93 and it looked like the handicapper had him when he was well beat at Kempton off his revised rating.
However, he proved the doubters wrong on his next outing at Chester (10f gd/sft). Laura Pearson timed her challenge to perfection and he got up to score by a head from Fox Tal. You can put a line through his last run at Ascot due to the bottomless ground and the 12f trip. Conditions will be a lot more to his liking today and with Cameron Noble’s claim he is effectively in off 94. Noble has 10 wins and 32 top 4 finishes from just 77 rides for Loughnane, a frame hitting strike rate of almost 55%. There could still be more to come from this well bred son of Dandy Man and at odds of 25/1, he is the each way selection.
Newmarket and York Saturday Tips: Dark Pine e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)
4.25 Newmarket – July Cup (Group 1)
This 6f Group 1 is the feature race of the week at Newmarket’s July Festival. It is a big field with 19 runners and if you blink, you might miss it. Last year’s winner Oxted is back to defend his crown. Roger Teal’s stable star landed the King’s Stand last time at Ascot but he renews rivalries with Starman, who beat him by over 3L at York two starts ago. Those two head the market and they both hold obvious claims. On good to firm ground at Newmarket over 6f I’d probably just prefer Starman, but you couldn’t write Oxted off.
American raider Extravagant Kid is a horse I have followed ever since I put him up in the Breeders’ Cup back in November. He ran a cracker that day to fly home for 4th at Keeneland (5.5f gd). He finally broke his duck at the top table when winning the G1 Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan in March (6f gd). I think this son of Kiss The Kid is best at today’s distance of 6f so he deserves huge credit for how he ran in the King’s Stand when beat just 2L by Oxted over 5f.
That was his first run back after his Meydan heroics and given the 80 day break, he should come on for the run. Frankie Dettori rode him last time and it looks significant that he keeps the faith today. He had the likes of Liberty Beach and Battaash in behind at Ascot so there is no doubt that his form is good enough to compete at this level. With 5 places available, he looks a cracking e/w bet at odds of 18/1.
Newmarket and York Saturday Tips: Extravagant Kid e/w @ 18/1 NB (5 places)
4.40 York – City Walls Stakes (Listed)
The final race on a bumper day of action is a Listed sprint at York. I am going to take a chance on Tarboosh in this at a very big price. Trained by Paul Midgley, this 8yo son of Bahamian Bounty has run very well on his last two visits to this track. Last season he ran a massive race to finish 4th in this contest, beat just 0.75L for the win by Moss Gill. He didn’t get a clear run that day so he must rate as an unlucky loser. Tarboosh then returned for a valuable handicap off a mark of 105. He ran another cracker to finish 3rd, just 1.5L behind the winner Acclaim The Nation.
He signed off last season with a Listed win at Doncaster, beating Urban Beat by 1.5L with Dakota Gold back in 3rd. This season has not gone to plan so far. An encouraging reappearance at Musselburgh was followed by a couple of below par efforts at Haydock and Beverley when Tarboosh pulled too hard. I am hoping that the return to York is going to spark him back to form and he won’t have any issues if the forecast rain arrives. His yard is hitting form and they had a 40/1 winner here on Friday. Hopefully they repeat the trick with this fella today. At odds of 40/1, Tarboosh is the each way pick.
