Night 1 Premier League Darts Preview

It is that time of year again. The PDC Premier League kicks off on Monday night and even with no crowds, it should be an exciting event. James Punt has already posted an outright preview and he has also picked out some interesting side market bets. You can check out his Night 1 Premier League Darts preview below…

Night 1 Premier League: Glen Durrant vs. Nathan Aspinall

A replay of last year’s PL final between two players whose form has dipped ever since. Durrants demise started with his Covid19 infection last Autumn, while Aspinall’s lack of form has been less spectacular and not as deep, but he has not been near his best for some time.

Aspinall’s scoring has dropped nearly three points from 2020 to 2021 and his is now much line with the overall tour average. We last saw him at Super Series 2 and he won just three of his seven matches. He did have one extraordinary match when he averaged 107 but lost 5-6 to Ritchie Edhouse, but outside of that there was not much to write home about.

Overall, in 2021 Aspinall has played 26 and won 15. He reached the semi-finals of both PC1 and PC2 but they were only solid performances and not peak Asp.

Glen Durrant’s drop off in form is more severe. In his first two years in the PDC, he averaged 96.67 and 96.07, in 2021 so far, he is averaging 90.61. Duzza’s 2021 record has seen him play 22 and win 11 and his best run was a quarter final in PC3, which he lost 1-6 with an 86.3 average.

Durrant Edges H2H

Their H2H record shows a 3-2 lead for Durrant and the oddsmakers have made Aspinall the 2.20 favourite, while Durrant can be backed at 3.20 with the draw at 5.00.

Aspinall is favourite not because he is playing particularly well, rather that Durrant is playing worse. Both players are still capable of having a good day at the office, but Duzza is having fewer of them than Aspinall.

With two players out of form the draw has to be considered. Aspinall looks the more likely to win but if he has one of his low 90’s average game, Durrant could live with him.

Night 1 Premier League Tip: 1 point drawn match @ 4.75 with SpreadEx

Jose de Sousa vs. Rob Cross

De Sousa is the 2.00 favourite to beat the out of form Rob Cross. The Special One showed some great form at the recent Super Series 2 where he won seven of eleven matches. He averaged over 100 in eight of those matches. In 2021 he has played 28 and won 17, averaging 97.7.

Cross has played 23 and won 12 in 2021, averaging 95.1 which is a small improvement on his 2020 form but still a few points of his 2018/19 scoring. In his last 45 matches, 31% have gone to a deciding leg. That is 14 deciders of which he has won 5. There is a lack of confidence which has taken hold of his game. He hasn’t lost it; he just lacks the confidence he had when he burst on to the scene in 2018.

They have only met twice with one win apiece, both floor matches back in 2019. Since then, De Sousa’s stock has risen while Cross’ has fallen.

De Sousa can be a bit frustrating in that he can score very heavily and lose, but he hits a lot of 180’s, win or lose. I suspect he will win this match but the safer bet maybe to back him to hit the most 180’s. At 0.39 per leg in 2021, he is hitting at a significantly higher rate than Cross’ 0.22.

Night 1 Premier League Tip: 2 points Jose de Sousa to hit the most 180’s @ 1.73 with Betfred

Peter Wright vs. Jonny Clayton

Peter Wright ended his win drought by winning PC 8, the final event of the recent Super Series 2. He last win was only back in mid-November 2020, but Snakebite had been struggling in the big events and he needed a confidence boost coming into this PL. He remains one of the very best players and is averaging 98.38 in 2021. Winning that title and 13 of his 16 matches at SS2 was good preparation for these upcoming PL matches.

Their H2H record is 4-2 to Wright but Clayton won their only match this year, a 11-10 win in the Masters semi-final at this very venue. Clayton went on to win the title, his first televised major.

Jonny Clayton is our big ante post selection. His odds have been cut from 21.00 to 13.00, but this is a difficult opening match, for both players. I am sure both would have preferred to face one of the more out of form players in the first round.

In Form Ferret

Clayton is the most in-form player in professional darts. He has been bubbling under for the last four years, winning decent money and an odd title now and then, but after he and Gerwyn Price won the World Cup for Wales last year, he moved up several gears. His confidence just grew and grew and his form this season is excellent. He has played 49 matches and won 42. He has won The Masters, was runner up in PC1, runner up in PC2, quarter final in PC3, won PC4 and won PC7 the day before Peter Wright won PC8. Clayton has averaged 99.03 so far in 2021.

Two players, both in very good form, should have close match, as was their Masters semi-final. The odds on over 11.5 legs however are just 2.05 and there is very little meat on that bone. No bet.

James Wade vs. Gary Anderson

James Wade is a very late call up for Gerwyn Price, who failed his covid19 test. Wade was an official reserve so he would have been aware that there was a possibility that he would be playing. How seriously he took that possibility would influence how much practice he was putting in. He was not expecting to be playing again until April 24th, at the next scheduled Super Series to be held in Germany. It would be no surprise if he had downed tools for a couple of weeks to enjoy Easter with the family.

Gary Anderson on the other hand was practicing in the days leading up to this. He had two long practice sessions with Ryan Searle, and he will be better prepared than usual. I had expected a slow start by Anderson who would play himself into form over the first few nights. He now arrives with any rust knocked off.

It is fair to say that both these players are naturally gifted and probably do not need as much practice as others, but for once it might be advantage Anderson when it comes to match preparation.

Their H2H record shows a comfortable 33-17 lead for Gary Anderson but their 2021 form shows James Wade in much better form. The Machine has played 39 and won 30, a win rate of 76.9%. Not quite as good as Jonny Clayton, but Wade is the second winning most player of the year so far. Ironically, he has played Jonny Clayton three times this year and lost the lot. The last one was in the final of PC7. Wade won the UK Open in early March and followed that up with twelve wins from sixteen matches in Super Series 2.

Tough To Call

This is a harder call than Price vs. Anderson. Gerwyn Price has a hold over Anderson, whereas Wade does not. While wade has been in superb form in 2021 (many argued that he should have been a pick for this PL) we don’t know if he has been keeping himself sharp during the last three weeks. At the same time Anderson has been using practice sessions with Ryan Searle to prepare for this series of five matches. It is fair to say that Anderson will have needed the practice as he has only won nine of his eighteen matches in 2021, averaging 95.4.

These two have only met twice in the last two years with one win each. Anderson won 11-8 in the 2020 World Matchplay and Wade won 10-9 in the 2019 Champions League of Darts.

Anderson has been made the 2.40 favourite with Wade at 2.60 and the draw 4.50. Assuming that Wade has not let any rust get into his game and that Anderson will be sharper than he has shown so far in 2021, we could well have another close match. The bookmakers are making over 11.5 legs an odds on shot which makes me think the odds on a drawn match make more sense.

Night 1 Premier League Tip: 1 point match drawn @ 4.20 with William Hill

Michael van Gerwen vs. Dimitri van den Bergh

Both these players are playing well, scoring heavily, but struggling to get results. Dimitri van den Bergh had knee surgery after the World Championship, but he continues to be in recovery mode and still requires a knee brace. However, his average for 2021 is a career high of 97.2, but he has only played 13 matches in 2021 and won just 3.

Their H2H record sees a 5-1 lead for MVG. The former world number1 is averaging 100.5 in 2021, higher than any other player, but he has lost six of his twenty matches in 2021 with a run to the semi-final of the UK Open being his best run. MVG played well, very well, in the semi-final match, averaging 106.2, but still lost 5-11 to Luke Humphries.

Rusty MVG?

MVG decided against playing in Super Series 2 so he hasn’t played any competitive matches for a month. A wise move? That is hard to say. Price, Clayton and Wright all won titles at Super Series 2 and they will come into these PL matches felling confident, while he is still licking his wounds from losing is number 1 status. He has of course, got a superb PL record, making the final in all his first seven appearances in the PL, until finishing just sixth last year.

Van den Bergh can still be very dangerous despite his lack of wins and lack of fitness, but Michael van Gerwen is winning far more matches than Dimitri and scoring better as well. MVG is the 1.77 favourite and with Van den Bergh’s win rate so low in 2021, he should justify those odds.

Night 1 Premier League: 2 points Michael van Gerwen to win @ 1.77 with Unibet

-JamesPunt