Nordic Darts Masters Friday Preview

There are no particularly competitive matches in the first round, but we’ll take a look and see if there is anything of interest in the side markets. You can check out James Punt’s ante-post preview here. Nordic Darts Masters Friday tips and preview are below.

Dimitri van den Bergh vs. Johan Engström

Dimitri will need to have put a very poor performance at the World Cup behind him. Many thought Belgium could have a good run last week but they went out in the second round, with Van den Bergh averaging just 78 in a 2-4 defeat to Rowby-John Rodriguez. However, even a repeat of that form should be enough to win this.

Sweden’s Johan Engström last played in the Hungarian Darts Trophy, averaging 84.6 when losing 4-6 to William Borland. He won the qualifier for this event last month, averaging 84.4 across his four matches and was comfortably the best player. He has the fifth best average on this year’s Nordic and Baltic tour at 81. Seven of his last ten matches have resulted in victory. Engstrom has played in three Euro Tour events in the last four years, losing all three. The Swede played in the first six European Challenge tour events, reaching one quarter final and he averaged, yes, 84.

Gulf In Class

It is fair to say we can expect Johan Engström to average around 84. Dimitri van den Bergh’s annual average is 98, so there is a gulf in class here, so long as Van den Bergh doesn’t repeat his World Cup performance. That was his worst performance of 2021 and something of an outlier.

Van den Bergh is the 1.11 favourite and he should win this comfortably. Across his last 50 matches he hit a ton plus average in 40% of his matches. If he finds that sort of form, or close to it, then his opponent will do well to get a couple of legs won.

Nordic Darts Masters Friday Tip: 1 point Dimitri van den Bergh to win -3.5 legs @ 1.91 with Betvictor, Ladbrokes

Jonny Clayton vs. Ivan Springborg

The Ferret has drawn a Danish qualifier so the crowd will be on Ivan Springborg’s side. That is unlikely to make much difference. The Dane has lost his last six matches and is averaging just 75 in 2021.

On Clayton’s last visit to Denmark for the Danish Darts Open in 2019, he reached the semi-final and beat home favourite, Per Laursen 6-5 in his opening match.

Jonny Clayton may not be in peak form, and he has had a couple of matches where his doubling was poor, but he has won seven of his last ten matches and he is one of the heaviest scorers of 2021.

Despite a few disappointing performances recently, Clayton should be far too good for Springborg. Clayton can be backed at 2.37 with a -4.5 leg handicap but if he does have a bad night at the doubles, he could let the Dane pick up a couple of legs. No bet.

Nathan Aspinall vs Madars Razma

These two haven’t met for 18 months and the H2H record is 1-1. Neither player is in great form and Aspinall has become very inconsistent. Looking at his last four matches, his averages were 102.6, 89.0, 101.6 and 81.0. Four of his last ten matches have seen sub 90 averages and he won just five.

Razma has been struggling of late, winning five of his last ten pro tour matches and five of those had sub 90 averages. There were a couple of ton plus ones as well and like Aspinall, he is inconsistent and not at his best.

This looks a dodgy game. Aspinall is the better player and should win, but if he throws in a sub 90 performance then Razma is more than capable of winning. If they both put in sub 90’s it’s a coin toss. It could be both hit ton plus averages and it’s a cracker. In an anything could happen kind of match its worth backing the outsider if the odds are good enough and 3.60 is good enough.

Nordic Darts Masters Friday Tip: 1 point Madars Razma to win @ 3.60 with SpreadEx

Gerwyn Price vs. Daniel Larsson

This really does look like a mis-match. The world number 1 and world champion Price up against the tour card holding Swede who has won just one pro tour match in 2021, and that was against a desperately out of form Glen Durrant. He has only faced two top 16 ranked players and lost 0-6 to Wade and 1-6 to Ratajski. Something similar looks likely.

Nordic Darts Masters Friday Tip: 2 points Gerwyn Price to win -3.5 legs @ 1.83 with Betvictor, BET365

Gary Anderson vs. Andreas Toft Jorgensen

Andreas Toft Jorgensen won a Nordic tour event last month, beating Kantele and Razma before beating Darius Labanauskas in the final. It must be said that he didn’t set the world on fire that day (tournament average 79.5) and he beat Labanauskas 6-4, but only averaged 73.9 when doing so. His seasonal average is 77.9 and he come here having lost seven of his last ten matches.

 Gary Anderson has been absent since he lost in the second round of the World Matchplay two months ago. At that point he had lost four of his last ten matches. His seasonal average is 96. This time last year he had a month off after the 2020 Matchplay and won his first match back 7-3, averaging 109 when beating Michael Smith in the Premier League.

In the first block of players championship matches after the first lockdown he came back with a 2-6 loss to Matt Clark in PC9 but quickly picked up his game with averages of 99.7, 109.9, 81.5, 100, 95.3 and 98.5 when reaching the semi-final of PC10 the following day. Anderson may be a bit rusty, but he can play well after a break.

A poor performance from Anderson is likely to be too good even of Jorgensen’s A game. Anderson is the 1.11 favourite, and he can be backed at 2.00 with a -3.5 leg handicap (Betvictor). That is tempting but it is hard to be entirely confident that he will be too bothered about this match or indeed, tournament.

Fallon Sherrock vs. Niels Heinsoe

The TV return of darts poster girl, Fallon Sherrock. The great pandemic stopped her gravy train dead in its tracks. From front page news and a global tour with the World Series lined up, to nothing of note for 18 months. In 2021, Sherrock failed to win a tour card at Q school and didn’t return to regular action until playing in the Challenge Tour events which resumed in August. She played in 24 matches, winning 12 and her Seasonal average is 84.1.

Niels Heinsoe also failed to win a tour card in January and has played only in the five Nordic Baltic tour events last month. He played 14 matches and won 9, including being runner up in event 4. His seasonal average is 78.3.

These two met on the Challenge Tour in 2019 and Fallon won 5-2, averaging 79 to Heinsoe’s 70.

Sherrock is the better player, has a higher seasonal average, her A game is way better and of course she has more experience of playing on stage in front of the TV camera’s. She is the 1.40 favourite but looks good value to win this fairly comfortably.

Nordic Darts Masters Friday Tip: 1 point Fallon Sherrock to win -2.5 legs @ 2.38 with Betfair, Paddy Power

Peter Wright vs. Marko Kantele

Former tour card holder Kantele now plays on the Challenge Tour and Nordic Baltic Tour and has lost six of his last ten matches. His seasonal average is 83.5 and needless to say he is going to find it tough against a very in form Peter Wright.

Wright has won eight of his last ten matches and his seasonal average is 98.6. They have met once on the pro tour with Wright winning 6-3 in PC2 last February.

Wright is the 1.12 favourite for obvious reasons. He can be backed at 1.95 with a -3.5 leg handicap and his fire power should allow him to cover that.

Nordic Darts Masters Friday Tip: 1 point Peter Wright to win -3.5 legs @1.95 with William Hill

Michael van Gerwen vs. Darius Labanauskas

The grand finale of the night and a match where there is a chance of a surprise?

MVG’s season of frustration continues. The game is still there but his confidence isn’t. He has lost four of his last ten matches and of those four losses, two saw him average more than a ton, one a 99 and the other 95. He isn’t losing because his scoring has gone. Perhaps his loss to Brendan Dolan in the Hungarian Darts Trophy sums it all up. He averaged 99 was controlling the match but he let Dolan back in and then missed 4 match darts to lose 5-6. He looked very pissed off. It is almost like he expected to miss, and he did.

Van Gerwen still wins the bulk of his matches, his win rate is just under 70%, but that rate has fallen every year for the last five from a peak of 91% in 2016. That is a significant drop and if you could measure a confidence metric, it would mirror his win rate.

Labanauskas In Form

Darius Labanauskas got his first win over Van Gerwen in PC3 in February, averaging 100 and winning 6-3. He has won six of his last ten pro tour matches but his seasonal average is just 91.7. He does occasionally hit ton plus averages, but he is an effective player who believes in himself and gives it his best shot every time. While not an overly slow player, he will not give Michael the fast pace that he thrives on.

Could he make it difficult for MVG? Yes. Is he a value bet? At odds of 4.33, just about. Their confidence rates are heading indifferent directions and if Labanauskas can stay with MVG, it is the Dutchman who is likely to feel more pressure.

Nordic Darts Masters Friday Tip: 1 point Darius Labanauskas to win @ 4.33 with Ladbrokes, BET365

-JamesPunt