PDC World Championship Final Preview

The 2021 PDC World Championship reaches its climax at the Ally Pally tonight. After the high drama of the quarter finals, the semi finals were a bit more low key. Gerwyn Price weathered an early storm vs Stephen Bunting and prevailed with a 6-4 victory. That resulted in a nice win for James Punt who advised Bunting +2.5 sets at 2.00. Gary Anderson looked very strong vs Dave Chisnall and won 6-3, landing another bet for us on Anderson at 2.20. Let’s hope we finish the tournament with another winning wager or two, check out James Punt’s PDC World Championship Final preview and tips below…

Gerwyn Price vs. Gary Anderson

It is quite fitting that the best player of 2020 can start 2021 with the chance to become World Champion and the new World Number 1 player.

The rise and rise of Gerwyn Price has been one of the great sporting stories of modern times. He only started playing darts in 2010 while still being a professional rugby player. Price quit the rugby in 2014 to concentrate on darts. He went to Q school and won his card on the second day. The Iceman finished 39th on the Pro Tour OOM in 2014.

2015 saw him enter the top 64 in the world rankings, 2016 saw him reach a UK Open qualifier final which he lost 2-6 to Michael van Gerwen. He got his first PDC title by winning Players Championship 7, beating Peter Wright in the final, 6-3. Price backed that up by winning PC8 the next day. He had arrived as a professional darts player.

Meteoric Rise For Iceman

By the start of 2017, Price was ranked 20th in the world. He reached his first major final at the 2017 UK Open, losing 11-6 to Peter Wright. He was selected to play in the 2018 Premier League which was his first big setback as he failed to win a single match and missed the cut. The Premier League has broken a few players careers before, and Price looked like another victim.

To his credit he regrouped and went on the win his first euro tour title in the summer before winning his first Major title, the 2018 Grand Slam of Darts. He beat Gary Anderson 16-13 in a bad tempered match. Anderson reacted to Price’s vocal celebrations by pushing him, but it was Anderson who had lost the plot and the match.

Price was handed a total of £21,500 in fines for his behaviour in that match, in an earlier match against Simon Whitlock and social media posts. Anderson for his part, got away with a warning, despite the laying on of hands on an opponent, a big no no. Price appealed and had the fines cut in half.

Bad Boy

Price was now the official bad boy of darts and received a hostile reception everywhere he went, barring Cardiff. It made playing well difficult for him, getting jeered and booed for entire matches and wolf whistles on vital throws were the norm. He continued to play well and successfully defended his Grand Slam title in 2019, beating Gary Anderson in the quarter final.

Like it or not, the elite players had a new member of the club. He lost to Peter Wright in the semi-final of the 2020 World Championship before embarking on his 2020 season which saw him win eight titles, including the World Grand Prix, the World Series of Darts and the World Cup of Darts.

Of course, the bulk of this year’s tournaments have been played behind closed doors. There have been no boo boys allowed in and Price is free to play darts against his opponent and not his opponent and thousands of hostile fans. Price has said that he misses the crowd as it helps to get his adrenaline flowing, which is key to his game. On the evidence of 2020, no he doesn’t. In fact, his win rate has improved to the point that he is on the verge of being the official World Number 1. From a pro tour rookie in 2014 to potential world champion and world number 1 in six seasons. As Michael van Gerwen would say, it’s phenomenal.

Anderson One Of The Greats

Gary Anderson enjoys the crowds because they are always on his side, outside of Cardiff. He is treated as a deity in Scotland and widely regard as one of the greatest players of all time. However, he is going to be all alone up there tonight, against a player he really can’t stand and who has picked up the habit of beating him. Anderson has a slight advantage in their career H2H record, 8-7.

However, in recent years, it is Price who holds the whip hand. That break though win in the 2018 Grand Slam of Darts started a run of big wins for Price over Anderson. He picked up five wins to Anderson’s two and only one of Anderson’s win was a stage event, a 10-2 win at this years Masters, which had a crowd. Price inflicted two very heavy defeats on Anderson in this years Premier League, 7-1 and 8-3.

Anderson’s career over the last two years has been blighted by injury and long periods of inactivity  but he has gotten over a recent knee injury and there are no excuses tonight. He says that 2021 is the year of his comeback, the year where he starts playing in everything, well not the euro tour, but everything else going and what better way to start than by winning his third world championship.

Experience Advantage

That is Anderson’s one big advantage. He has won this title twice and been runner up twice. He knows about the pressure of the biggest match there is, Price is entering new territory. The chance to be number 1 and achieve his ambition. That will bring its own pressure and wanting something too much ends so many top players ambitions at the Ally Pally.

In terms of performance in this tournament there isn’t much between them, as should be expected in a final. Price has averaged 97.95, Anderson 97.41. Price has the better checkout rate at 44% compared to Anderson’s 39% and Price has hit 42 maximums to 33 for Anderson. In terms of 180’s per leg however it is 0.29 per leg for Price and 0.28 for Anderson. That would suggest we should expect a close match, but history suggests otherwise.

The last ten World Championship finals has produced just one that went to a deciding set when Gary Anderson beat Phil Taylor 7-6 in 2015. Two finals went to 7-5, two to 7-4 but 7-3 has been the score in four of the last ten finals. There was a 7-2 when Cross beat Taylor in 2018 but no 7-1 or 7-0 score lines. The last four finals have been something of an anti-climax with three 7-3 score lines and a 7-2.

Heavy Scoring Likely

Scoring in PDC World Championship finals is usually very high, certainly in recent years. The last four winners have had averages of 102, 102,107 and 107 and both finalists can hit those heights although Price has had just the one ton plus average so far in the tournament. That was in last nights semi-final. Anderson has had two ton plus matches, last nights semi-final and his quarter final win over Duijvenbode. Price has been the higher scorer over the season, but excuses can be made for Anderson thanks to his lack of fitness at times.

Price has had the better season, he is used to winning titles now, but this is the big one and the first time he has reached the PDC World Championship final. How he handles the pressure, how he manages his expectations is the key to winning the match. In some respects, he is lucky to be facing Anderson. They don’t care for each other very much and that will help Price to get his juices flowing, to want to not just win, but win big. He definitely felt aggrieved at how he was treated after winning the Grand Slam in 2018 and also how Anderson wasn’t punished for his part in the ugliness.

The bookmakers have Gerwyn Price as the 1.80 favourite and Gary Anderson the 2.10 outsider.

Anderson is Old School

Anderson is well known for his dislike of the ‘modern game’. He likes to play with the old boys who ‘just get on with it’. Beaton, King and errrrr, that’s about it these days. He is part of a dying breed. The Flying Scotsman is still one of the Grandees of the sport and tends to get the respect he thinks he deserves from most of his younger opponents. He has enjoyed a run of very compliant opponents so far, with one exception. Razma may have given a bit of shout after winning his set against Anderson, but he was pretty quiet otherwise. Petersen and Duijvenbode rolled over like obedient puppies while Chisnall was suffering the inevitable mental let down after beating MVG 5-0.

However, when Anderson played Mensur Suljovic it was a different story. The Gentle knows that Anderson hates a slow pace, so what did he do? Played slowly, really slowly. Anderson inevitably boiled over and he was playing poorly as a result. The problem for Suljovic was that the pace of play was too slow for him as well and both players were struggling. At 2-2 Suljovic picked up the pace, which annoyed Anderson even more, especially as Suljovic went 3-2 up. Anderson managed to regroup and won the next six legs and the match 4-3. Suljovic only averaged 89.8 yet took the match to the deciding set. That is how easily Anderson can be derailed.

Iceman To Get Under Scotsman’s Skin

Gerwyn Price knows every one of Anderson’s buttons, how to press them, but unlike Suljovic, he can do it and still play well. Price won’t slow the match down, they both prefer to play at a fair pace, but he will give the full beans on the celebration front. Anderson at least knows what’s coming and his chances in this final depend on how well he can cope with it. Recent results suggest that he won’t. Price can match Anderson scoring wise and if he can also unsettle the Scotsman with his ‘antics’ he can make it hard for him to play to his best level.

Price may get tight at the thought of achieving his ambition, that would be natural, but he is a fierce competitor. He has an overwhelming desire to win and he used to doing just that.

Recent PDC World Championship finals have not been that closely contested but three of Anderson’s four finals have seen 12 sets or more. The results of their last six matches have not been particularly close and I will take the very confident Welshman to win the title reasonably comfortably.

PDC World Championship Final: 2 points Gerwyn Price to win @ 1.80 with Hills, Betfair, Paddy Power

PDC World Championship Final: 1 point Gerwyn Price to win 7-3 @ 9.5 with Betfred

-JamesPunt