PDC World Championship Side-Markets Tips – JP
PDC World Championship Side-Markets Tips
James Punt has already posted an in-depth, player by player preview for the PDC World Championship. If you haven’t read that already, you can check it out here. Now, he has another preview, this time on the PDC World Championship side-markets. He has hopefully unearthed a few nice value bets, find out what he fancies below.
PDC World Championship Side Markets
Player to hit the most 180s
Another winner last year was Michael Smith to hit the most 180s. There is a strong correlation between the tournament finalists, and the player to hit the most 180s.
It is a bit obvious really, the finalists are very likely to play the most legs in the tournament and have the opportunity to hit more 180s. For the last ten years (I didn’t go back any further) the player who hit the most 180s was a finalist, six times it was the eventual champion and the other four, the runner up.
Luke Humphries has a 180 per leg rate of 0.33 per leg over the last 12 months, the fourth highest, tied with Gary Anderson. I am more confident that Humphries will make the final so he is the obvious selection once again.
However, the bookies are wise to this and his odds to hit the most maxis are exactly the same as his odds to win the championship.
Nine Dart Finish
There has been fourteen nine dart finishes at the PDC World Championship. There has been at least one every year for the last five years and the odds for another this year are just 1.53. I would be surprised if there wasn’t, but odds of just 1.53 hardly get the pulse racing.
Quarter Betting
1st Quarter
He may be my betting nemesis, but I like the chances of Rob Cross to come through this quarter. He has gone out in the fourth round in the last couple of years, but his form is good in terms of consistency and his draw looks good. There is no one in the first round that should bother him and the other seeds are Jose de Sousa, Jonny Clayton and Krzysztof Ratajski, none of whom are in great form.
PDC World Championship Side-Markets: 1 point Rob Cross to win the 1st Quarter @ 3.75 generally available
2nd Quarter
Having backed Gary Anderson to make the final, hopefully he is the winner of this quarter. It is a tough one with Gerwyn Price in his half of the quarter. That looks the key match if and when they meet in the fourth round. Anderson is 4-0 vs. Price in 2023.
Peter Wright and James Wade are in the top half of the quarter and they may be joined by Luke Littler should he win his first round match. It is a tough group and I am happy to leave it alone and hope that Anderson gets through.
3rd Quarter
Michael van Gerwen is the 2.05 favourite to win this quarter. In the last eleven years he has won his quarter eight times, which suggests his odds are generous.
His likely third round opponent is Kim Huybrechts, to whom he has lost in their last two meetings, but they were best of eleven leg affairs. MVG had won seventeen in a row against the Belgian before those two defeats in 2021 and 2022.
Stepehen Bunting could well be a fourth round opponent and MVG is 20-3 up on The Bullet, and 7-0 on TV, including a 4-0 4th round win here in 2019.
The bottom half of the quarter has Noppert, Heta and Rock amongst the seeds. Heta and Rock are drawn to meet in the third round and that would be a real coin toss.
Noppert’s form is a bit cold after taking time off for the birth of his second child, but he had won eight of his last ten matches previous to his break, despite not scoring well. Noppert has lost at the third round stage for the last four years, but he has reached at least one major semi-final for the last three years.
MVG has winning H2H records against Noppert, Rock, Bunting and Heta and one of those looks the most likely to face him in the quarters.
PDC World Championship Side-Markets: 1 point Michael van Gerwen to win the 3rd quarter @ 2.05 with Fitzdares
4th Quarter
Luke Humphries is the odds on favourite to win this quarter on route to winning the championship.
Other Markets
Who will got the furthest?
Ryan Searle vs. Dimitri van den Bergh
Van den Bergh may have the better World Championship pedigree, but Searle is in better form. Heavy Metal has won seven of his last ten matches and his three defeats were to Luke Humphries twice and Gerwyn Price.
His last five matches saw 98+ averages and while I don’t fancy a really deep run, his draw looks like taking him to another loss vs. Luke Humphries in the fourth round.
Van den Bergh may well face Florian Hemple in his opening match, a repeat of their 2021 second round match, which Hemple won 3-1. Van den Bergh averaged 101 in that match and still lost.
Out of Form
The Belgian’s recent form sees him losing six of his last ten matches and hasn’t hit a ton plus average for two months. Seven of his last ten matches have seen averages of 93 or below and he looks vulnerable.
Should Dimitri make the third round, he will face the very much in form Stephen Bunting, many peoples’ idea of a live outsider for the title. Bunting is 8-2 vs Van den Bergh and has won their last six matches, and their second round match here in 2017, 3-1.
PDC World Championship Side-Markets: 1 point Ryan Searle to go further than Dimitri van den Bergh @ 1.80 with Fitzdares
Top Continental European Player without MVG
This is a twenty seven runner field, but one of surprising paucity. Danny Noppert is the 4.50 favourite, despite never having gone beyond the third round in five previous attempts.
He has won eight of his last ten matches, but he hasn’t played for a month. Six of those last ten matches saw sub 90 averages and that is poor form, despite winning eight of them. His draw is decent and he looks to have a good path to the fourth round. That might well be enough to win this market.
Ratajski and Schindler come next in the betting. Schindler has only ever won one match at the Ally Pally and Ratajski has progressed beyond the third round once from six appearances. He does have a decent draw but his recent form isn’t good, losing five of his last ten. I can see him making the fourth round but going no further.
Two Of Interest
The two I like are Gian van Veen and Gabriel Clemens. Van Veen is making his debut and has to play the Hong Kong based qualifier, Man Lok Leung in the first round. That should be easy enough, but then he faces…. Gabriel Clemens.
That is annoying. Clemens is 2-1 vs. Van Veen and I’d just about give him the nod over the young Dutchman. The winner is then due to play Dave Chisnall in the third round.
That is a tough looking draw, but Chisnall has lost six third round matches here, including three of his last four. His TV form in 2023 is very poor, winning just five matches. Should Clemens/Van Veen get past Chisnall, they would likely face Aspinall or Gurney, so it is a tough little corner of the draw.
Pikachu Prospects?
What about Ricardo Pietreczko? He made a bit of a tit of himself at the Grand Slam, but he is a Euro Tour winner and has produced some really good performances in Europe. He is very inexperienced in major tournaments and that may explain his behaviour at the Slam.
His A-game is good and his draw is also good. He faces Mikuru Suzuki in the first round and the out of form Callan Rydz in the second round. However, then he gets Humphries.
It is a tricky market with so many of the European players either in indifferent form, and/or having a tough draw.
Noppert and Ratajski have the best draws but neither has great tournament or recent form. Van Veen and Clemens have a tough draw, but both are good players.
Van Veen’s recent form hasn’t been his best, while Clemens had a run to the semi-final of the Players Championship finals and was a semi-finalist here last year. I do want to back Clemens in some market and, despite a tough draw, he is worth a small stakes bet.
PDC World Championship Side-Markets: 0.5 point Gabriel Clemens to be the top Continental European w/o MVG @ 13.00 with SpreadEx
We are already on Luke Humphries to win the tournament but I will have another nibble on him to win the title and hit the most 180s. Four of the last six winners have hit the most 180s and there are only three other players who hit maximums better than Humphries. Ross Smith, Dirk van Duijvenbode and Dave Chisnall, and I don’t see them making the final.
