It was another memorable night of tungsten theatrics at the Winter Gardens on Thursday night. The first match saw Krzysztof Ratajski beat Callan Rydq quite easily, landing our 2.00 handicap bet comfortably. In the second game, Dimitri Van Den Bergh remained calm under pressure and saw off the challenge of Gerwyn Price. The Welshman tried all sorts of antics to unsettle the Belgian but he was having none of it. The last two quarter finals will be played tonight and it is quite a line up. Check out James Punt’s PDC World Matchplay Friday tips below…

Peter Wright vs. Michael Smith

The H2H stats paint a picture. Overall, Wright leads 21-11, with two premier league draws. Looking only at matches played on stage it is 14-4, with the two premier league draws. Narrowing it down to Televised tournaments including the premier league it is 13-3 with two draws. Looking at major televised tournaments at quarter, semi or final stage and Wright leads 5-0.

Michael Smith is still search of his first televised major title. He has lost six televised finals, five semi-finals and nine quarter finals. That is a lot of scar tissue. The nearer he gets to landing one, the harder it gets.

Peter Wright has won five televised tournaments, including the World Championship so he does not have the same mental hurdle to climb. It is fair to say however, that he hasn’t won as many major titles as he should. A fourteen time runner up, thirteen semi-final defeats and fifteen quarter finals defeats. He does feature at the business end of many of the biggest events and he has played in five World Matchplay quarter finals and won three, Smith has played two and won one. In terms of big tournament pedigree, it is advantage Snakebite.

Nothing In It

Recent form shows the two are pretty close. In terms of seasonal average it is 97.8 for Wright, 96.4 Smith. Smith’s win rate is 74% compared to 70% for Wright. Very recent form sees both in excellent shape, Peter wright has won nine of his last ten (and nine in a row) while Smith has won eight. It might be important to point out that Smith’s two defeats came in quarter finals, but floor event quarter finals.

One thing that does stand out in Smith’s recent form is that his checkout rate has been very good. Only one of his last ten matches saw his checkout % fall below 40 and half have been 50+. If that continues to hold up, his chances of finally landing a big one will be greatly enhanced.

In terms of tournament form, Peter Wright edges it. He is averaging 102.9, checking out at 54% and hit ten 180’s. Smith is averaging 96.6, checking out at 46% with seven 180’s.

The Bookmakers have Wright as the 1.53 favourite with Smith a 2.75 shot. I would have Wright as the favourite but given Smith’s great form, he looks underrated, but he does struggle against Snakebite. Their H2H record cannot be ignored. Smith hasn’t beaten Wright in a quarter final of any description since 2013. You have to go back to April 2018 to find the last time Smith beat Wright on TV and since then he has lost seven times to Snakey.

Yes, Wright should be the winner here. Is he great value? No. No bet.

PDC World Matchplay Friday Tip: No Bet

PDC World Matchplay Friday: Michael van Gerwen vs. Nathan Aspinall

The H2H record between these two is very close, 6-5 to MVG with a premier league draw. In their six televised matches it is still close, 3-2 to MVG with a draw. Clearly Aspinall is not a player who is intimidated by playing Van Gerwen.

Van Gerwen’s seasonal average is 98.5 and his win rate 72%. Aspinall is averaging 95.6 and has a win rate of 61%. Aspinall has played himself into good form lately winning eight of his last ten, as has MVG, and the Asp’s tournament form sees and average of 97, a checkout rate of 40% with 13 maximums. MVG is averaging 98.3, checking out at 42% with seven 180’s.

Not a lot between them in terms of recent form or H2H form.

Aspinall The Value

The odds are 1.44 for a MVG win, 2.88 for Aspinall. There is some value for an Aspinall win but it is hard to find any value in the side markets. Looking at their past matches, when Aspinall wins, he has tended to win big with scores of 8-3, 6-1, 7-5, 6-3 and 6-1. MVG’s wins have tended to be closer with 6-5, 8-6, 10-8, 6-3, 6-5 and 6-3. There are two draws in there just to confuse things. It is hard to pick out any great patterns, but maybe if you fancy Aspinall, back him to overcome the handicap.

Between 2015 and 2019 MVG played in 27 ranked televised quarter finals. He lost just one. In 2020 and 2021 he has played in seven and lost three. He is no longer the non-stoppable force and just about worth taking on with Aspinall, a player who has a good H2H record against him.

PDC World Matchplay Friday Tip: 1 point Nathan Aspinall to win -2.5 legs @ 4.00 with BET365

-JamesPunt