It was another profitable night for us on Thursday. James Punt landed another two winners, De Sousa to win at 2.25 and MVG to win 8-6 at 6.00. Our ante-post dream is still alive too thanks to Jonny Clayton’s win. Check out James Punt’s Premier League Darts Finals Night preview below.

Michael van Gerwen vs. Jonny Clayton

The Ferret did it. He somehow managed to put his drop in form and confidence behind him, find his A-game and beat Van den Bergh 8-6. He broke Dimitri in the third leg and kept him at arm’s length for the rest of the match, winning all eight of his legs in 15 darts or less. It was a very composed, professional performance, unlike the previous two nights.

He now faces MVG, a player with whom he has an increasingly good record. Van Gerwen leads the H2H’s 12-7 but in 2021 it is 3-1 to Clayton and it is 1-1 in this year’s Premier League. Clayton won their first phase match 7-3, averaging 100 to MVG’s 91. He got Van Gerwen on one of his off nights and punished him. In the second phase, it was the other way round, MVG winning 8-5. While Clayton wasn’t at his best, averaging 93.6, he still won five legs and really should have done better.

Table Topper

Van Gerwen topped the table in the end, beating Peter Wright in the deciding leg to land our bet on an 8-6 win. Wright missed four darts to go 6-5 and he was punished for that mistake. MVG averaged 100 but he had two winning legs with more than 15 darts. It was a good performance, but not as good as Clayton’s high-pressure win.

It is tricky to try and guess the two players’ state of mind going into this match. Clayton was clearly ecstatic to make the playoffs in his debut year and that will have cleared the decks after two nights of poor performance. So long as he doesn’t get ahead of himself and think about actually winning the title, he has a decent chance of winning the match.

MVG is putting on a big show of his supposed dominance. Rarely has he played a tournament showing so much puffed-up arrogance. Yes, he is playing to the audience, but he is also trying to intimidate his opponents. Will that work against a player who has already beaten him three times this year?

MVG Must Be Wary

The Ferret is a player who MVG knows can beat him and if he doesn’t bring his A-game he will be in trouble. There have been signs of the best of MVG on display in the tournament, but there have also been inconsistencies, dips in form which make him vulnerable.

Van Gerwen has the advantage of having played in seven previous Premier League semi-finals and won the lot. Clayton is making his debut and that may make a difference. For all his great form in the eight or nine months, Jonny Clayton has much less really big match experience. He has won a euro tour title, the World Cup and The Masters (at this very venue, beating MVG 10-9 in the second round), but outside of that, he has lost two major semi-finals and a final. MVG has won the lot, multiple times.

As with all matches, that was then and this now. Clayton is the most improved player in world darts, maybe De Sousa, but his confidence just went through the roof after winning the World Cup. I have to put more weighting on Clayton’s post World Cup form. Since that win, he has played MVG five times and won three.

Clayton The Underdog

The bookmakers make MVG the favourite, best priced at 1.57 and Clayton at 2.50. That doesn’t reflect recent form. It reflects that the compilers or algorithms are still overrating MVG based on old form. The question is, do you believe MVG is the player he was in years gone by?

The data says no, he is not. In terms of his win/loss ratio, he peaked in 2016, winning an incredible 91% of his matches. He kept it in the mid to high 80’s for the next three years but it dropped to 75% in 2020 and is 69% in 2021.

Of course, the 2020 and 2021 seasons were the ones affected by the pandemic and the majority of matches were played behind closed doors. Will the return to playing in front of a crowd turbo charge MVG back to his old form levels? Was the absence of crowds solely responsible for his relative drop in form? Or is it that the opposition has gotten better? The answer is somewhere between the two.

MVG made a good point after his match last night, saying that playing in front of a crowd for the first time in many months, had made him nervous on Monday night. He lost that match 3-8 to Aspinall. Since then, he has won all three matches. He is now back in an old frame of mind, playing for and to his public.

Returning Fans A Negative For The Ferret

Is Jonny Clayton one of the players who James Wade says benefitted from playing behind closed doors? Arguably yes. The World Cup was played behind closed doors as was The Masters. Clayton’s win/loss ratio had previously peaked in 2017 at 63.7% and it remained there or thereabouts until 2021 where it is now 77.8%.

However, there is no substitute for confidence and with or without a crowd, Clayton now knows that he can beat anybody. Perhaps the time behind closed doors allowed him to find a new level and it has been a virtuous circle. It is not like he had never played in front of crowds before, but he is now playing in front of them as a winner. He has grown while MVG has diminished.  

If I was coming into this match as a one-off event, I would be backing Clayton to win it. However, we have backed Clayton quite heavily (5 points) to win the tournament at 21.00. It would foolish not to at least cover those five points.

Clayton is now best priced 5.50 to win the Premier League and I will lay off accordingly, rather than get involved in this match.

Premier League Darts Finals Night: Jose De Sousa vs. Nathan Aspinall

A case of Déjà vu. A re-run of last night’s match which saw De Sousa win 8-3. The Special One was in fine form, averaging 103.25 and the match had it all barring a nine-darter. Jose won the first leg by taking out 120 with three double twenties. It was exhibition stuff. He required more than 15 darts to win a leg just once and had two eleven dart legs and a twelve. He checkout 149 to win the match and he had broken the spirit of Aspinall well before that.

 Their H2H record is 2-1-1 for De Sousa and Jose has averaged 100.28 across his four matches this week. Aspinall is averaging 95.7 in the same period and won just one match.

Aspinall has been here before, beating Peter Wright 10-7. The whole night was strange last year with low scoring the theme. Aspinall’s 95.67 average against Wright was the highest of the night and nerves played a big part. The Asp should be a little less nervous second time around, but he is up against a player who doesn’t seem to do nerves.

Consistent De Sousa

De Sousa has played very consistently pretty much all the way through the league. There was a slow start, but he averaged just over 100 in the league stage compared to Aspinall’s 97.5. Only on the opening night has he averaged less than 96 and from his 16 matches, he has hit 9 ton-plus averages. Aspinall has only hit four ton-plus averages and six sub 96’s.

De Sousa is just a better player in almost every department and while he does miscount at times, he is a pretty unflappable character. He just gets on with it while Aspinall can try too hard and get frustrated.

The bookmakers have De Sousa as the 1.62 favourite with Aspinall at 2.38. It is hard to see past Jose for the win. Aspinall’s most recent form hasn’t been great, and he was outclassed last night. He can play better than that, but it is likely he will have to play a lot better, to find his A+ form.

Premier League Darts Finals Night Tip: 1 point Jose de Sousa to win -2.5 legs @ 2.38 with Betfair

Premier League Darts Finals Night Tip: 0.5 point De Sousa to win 10-7 @ 8.00 with Betfred, BET365

-JamesPunt