Punchestown and Cork Sunday Tips by Dave Stevos
Punchestown and Cork Sunday Tips: All Live ITV Races
We landed a lovely winner on Saturday at Aintree with Vieux Lion Rouge at 16/1 NB. Our e/w NAP Flying Angel also ran a huge race at 16s to grab 4th. Unfortunately that was it. Native River ran a cracker and probably would have won if they jumped all the fences. Eldorado Allen and Castlegrace Paddy couldn’t land a blow while Totterdown drifted like a barge and ran accordingly. There is a mouthwatering day of action ahead of us tomorrow. Check out Dave Stevos’ Kelso, Punchestown and Cork Sunday tips below…
Punchestown Sunday: 1.10pm – Voler La Vedette Hurdle (Listed)
A bumper day of action on Sunday starts with this 20f Listed heat for novice mares. A field of 8 are due to go to post and Finest Evermore is odds on for Willie Mullins. David Mullins rides and this mare is looking to maintain an unbeaten record since moving to Willie Mullins from David Harry Kelly. She beat April’s Moon by 5.5L on her first start for the yard in a bumper at Cork (yld/sft). That was followed by two wins over hurdles by a combined distance of 36L on soft at Tipperary and Listowel, both at 20f. The only worry for her supporters is very testing ground. Her form has come on soft and yielding and heavy is an unknown.
The one I like at a bigger price is Carigeen Lotus for the Lalors. This daughter of Jeremy has already got placed form in the book in Grade 2 company. She was a solid 3rd in a G2 bumper at Leopardstown. Then she won her maiden hurdle in gutsy style on her seasonal bow at Galway (16f sft). The runner up in that contest won a maiden next time so it looks decent form. She was well beaten in a Grade 2 last time out when her jumping was far from fluent. This drop in class could spark a return to form and if she jumps better she could make a bold bid from the front. At odds of 11/1, Carigeen Lotus is the e/w selection.
Punchestown and Cork Sunday Tips: Carigeen Lotus e/w @ 11/1 NB
Cork Sunday: 1.25pm – Hilly Way Chase (Grade 2)
The feature at Cork on Sunday is the 16.5f Hilly Way Chase. This Grade 2 contest revolves around the highly exciting Chacun Pour Soi. Viewed by many as a potential successor to Altior, this 8yo son of Policy Maker was electrifying when winning his first Grade 1 start at Punchestown in 2019. He was beat on his next start by A Plus Tard at Leopardstown over Xmas. However, he got back to form on his next start at the same track in February when lowering the colours of Min. He has yet to encounter heavy ground though and his sole defeat at the top table came on the softest ground he has run on.
One horse that will be delighted with the testing ground is Sizing Pottsie. This 6yo flopped on his seasonal return at Down Royal (19f yld) but the trip and ground were both wrong. It was much more like it back on heavy at Punchestown last time when he made a bold bid in a Grade 2 heat, just getting reeled in late on by Felix Desjy. Jessie Harrington’s charge has form figures of 1142 on ground with heavy in the description, including a 12L Grade 3 win at Navan. If Chacun Pour Soi isn’t at his best, Sizing Pottsie could be the one to benefit. At odds of 20/1 a small each way bet is the recommendation.
Punchestown and Cork Sunday: Sizing Pottsie e/w @ 20/1
Punchestown: 1.40pm – John Durkan Chase (Grade 1)
It is very refreshing to see such a competitive field for this year’s John Durkan Chase. Min was 8/11 when winning this last year but he is 9/4 this time around. That shows just how hot a race it is and you could quite honestly make a case for half a dozen of them. I think Min could be vulnerable on his seasonal bow, especially on such testing ground. He has won both his previous runs on heavy but they were in much easier races than this.
Chris’s Dream is unbeaten in two runs on heavy and he ran a cracker last time in the Irish Champion Chase. He was well beat in the Gold Cup last year but the ground was too lively for him. Today’s surface will be right up his street but 20f is a slight worry. His Grade 2 win at Gowran came over the distance last season though, so he shouldn’t be too inconvenienced.
Ground Concerns For Allaho
The main hope for the younger generation looks to be Allaho. This fella ran a cracker in the RSA back in March when beat just 2L by Champ. He has never raced on ground as soft as this though and that has to rate as a worry. The 6yo has mostly been campaigned at 3 miles too and his very best form has come over that distance. He might get away with the trip on this testing ground. However, on his first run back he is probably best watched.
Battleoverdoyen was highly touted last season but he didn’t fulfil the potential he showed early on. A fall at Leopardstown (when beaten) was followed by a distant 4th in the RSA (22L behind Allaho). He is another one who has produced his best form on ground better than today’s. He produced a career best on yielding on his return to action at Down Royal (19.5f) but will he back it up?
Can Samcro Strike?
Samcro, one of the most hyped horses of his generation, silenced a lot of his doubters (including me) when winning at the Festival. He prevailed by a nose from Melon in a thriller and it looks as though 20f on testing ground are his optimum conditions. He clearly needed his comeback run when 6L behind Battleoverdoyen at Down Royal and much better can be expected today. Samcro is 3/4 on ground with heavy in the description, the sole defeat coming against Faugheen. Of those at single figure odds, he probably looks the most solid.
His old foe Melon is another one that cannot be discounted. He has yet to win at beyond 2 miles but that effort at Cheltenham showed he gets the trip. He has won first time up twice before so he can go well fresh and he has some top class hurdles form on testing ground. Melon has never won at Punchestown though and he will need to be at his very best to get involved at the business end.
Flyer An Interesting Outsider
Tornado Flyer is the outsider of the field but he has a couple of things going for him. He will love the ground for a start and unlike 4 of his rivals, he has had a recent run. Willie Mullins’ charge was beat 4L in a handicap at this track three weeks ago (19.5f hvy) and if Daly Tiger runs well in the Hilly Way it would provide a big boost to the form (Tornado Flyer was conceding 17lb). Le Richebourg returns from a mammoth absence and he would surely prefer better ground.
I think Tornado Flyer could be worth a small bet at huge odds. He has 9L to find with Samcro and Melon on their RSA form but he could get closer on this ground. Of those at shorter odds, Samcro and Chris’s Dream appeal most and if Min turns up in peak form he is obviously a player too. However, instead of lumping on one of the shorter ones I’ll be having a small interest in Tornado Flyer at 40/1. Hopefully the race lives up to its billing!
Punchestown and Cork Sunday Tips: Tornado Flyer e/w @ 40/1
Cork 1.55pm – Mares’ Novice Chase (Grade 3)
Just 7 mares will go to post for this Grade 3 novices’ chase. Western Victory heads the market for Declan Queally and she ran really well behind Shattered Love in a Listed heat at Clonmel last time. Her best rules form has come on better ground than today’s though and she could be vulnerable to some less exposed sorts.
Sapphire Lady bounced back from a miserable run of form at the tail end of last season on her seasonal comeback. She scored easily in a mares’ chase on yielding but like the favourite, heavy ground may not play to her strengths. Mount Ida, Jeremy’s Flame and Heaven Help us are others with claims but this doesn’t appeal as a betting heat. I’ll just sit back and watch this one, no bet.
Punchestown and Cork Sunday Tips: No Bet
Punchestown 2.10pm – Handicap Hurdle (0-116)
The next live race from Punchestown on ITV4 is an 18 runner handicap hurdle. The one I fancy at a massive price here is Hidden Dilemma. This 7yo mare is a two time winner over hurdles, both in the UK. Her last win came off 103 at Carlisle (20f hvy) in December 2018 and she won by 11L that day. She hasn’t had any chances on heavy ground since, though she did run well back in February off 110 behind Skewiff at Carlisle (21f sft). She does need to bounce back from a below par run at Navan on her return but she had excuses.
It was her first run of the season so it was likely needed and the trip of 16f was inadequate. She should be fitter now with that run under her belt and her yard is in flying form. The Crawfords have had a winner (8/1) and 4 places (25/1, 16/1, 40/1,15/2) from their last 11 runners and this is their only Irish runner today. The return to heavy ground will suit, the step back up to 20f is another positive and at odds of 50/1 Hidden Dilemma is the each way pick.
Punchestown and Cork Sunday Tips: Hidden Dilemma e/w @ 50/1 (5 Places)
Cork 2.30pm – Stayers’ Novice Hurdle (Grade 3)
Another small field for this Grade 3 novice hurdle with just 7 horses taking their chances. It looks a very tight affair with very little between the top 4 horses in the betting. The bookies are taking no chances and I have no strong opinion on this contest. Sayce Gold is the most intriguing runner but at just 9/4 he doesn’t really tempt me. This is definitely a race worth watching with a view to the future but with just 2 places on offer each way, I won’t be having a bet.
Punchestown and Cork Sunday Tips: No Bet
Kelso 2.45pm – Paris Pike Novices’ Chase (Class 3)
The first of two races from Kelso on ITV4 this Sunday is this Class 3 Novices’ Chase. On what could be a good day for Sandy Thomson, I think Elf De Re wins this. He is rated 134 and he made his chasing debut in a red hot heat at Carlisle (16f gd/sft) back in October. Protektorat won that race before going on to score by 17L in a class 2 heat at Cheltenham.
The runner up Malystic went on to score by 11L in another Novice. Elf De Re finished 19L behind the winner and 12L behind Malystic, but he paid the price for trying to beat the Skelton horse. If he was ridden differently he wouldn’t have won, but he almost certainly would have finished closer.
He ran poorly on his last outing at Carlisle over 20f but the ground was bottomless. His best form has come on soft or good to soft and this step up in trip on much better ground should play to his strengths. He has placed form on heavy in the book over 22.5f and the extra furlong should pose no problems. Mahlervous and Mighty Thunder look the biggest threats but at odds of 9/2, Elf De Re is the pick.
Kelso Sunday Tips: Elf De Re win @ 9/2
Cork 3.00pm – Handicap Hurdle (0-123)
14 will go to post for this tricky looking handicap hurdle. At big odds I think Bal De Rio could surprise with a big run here. Trained by Denis Hogan, this 7yo son of Vertigineux has often been the bridesmaid but never the bride over hurdles. He has won 4 on the flat but I think he has a good chance of landing that elusive first win over timber today. He races off a mark of 117 today and Charlie Hart takes off 7lb. Amazingly, this will be just his second handicap run over timber. The last one came in Dec 2017 when he was beat 2L by Octagon off 115.
Connections have campaigned him in novice and maiden hurdles since he moved to Ireland. He has gone very close on more than one occasion and his best two efforts arguably came over 2 miles on heavy ground. He was beat a head by the now 133 rated Andalusa at Clonmel (hvy) and he was beat 1L by Fakir (now rated 131) at Limerick. Back on heavy ground at 16f over timber Bal De Rio is capable of playing a big part in this race. He has finished in the first 3 in 12 of his 16 hurdle runs and at odds of 25/1 he is well worth backing each way.
Punchestown and Cork Sunday Tips: Bal De Rio e/w @ 25/1 NAP (4 Places)
Kelso 3.20pm – Kelso Borders National (Class 3)
Sandy Thomson has farmed this race in recent years. Old favourites Neptune Equester and Harry The Viking won it twice each between 2014-2018 and Caventara was in the process of running a big race when falling last year. This year he relies on Duc De Grissay and this 7yo looks to have a lot in his favour. Firstly, he gets in off a mark of 118 and he carries just 10st 4lbs on his back. That is a big help in a 4 mile marathon like this and he proved that he handled ground with good in the description when staying on well for 4th on his prep run at Sedgefield (29f gd). He looks by far the most likely winner but he has already attracted market support and he is into 11/2 already.
One that could sneak into the frame at a bigger price is Dino Boy. Trained by Iain Jardine, this 7yo son of Diamond Boy was a 3 mile winner on soft for Nigel Twiston-Davies last term. He is 4lb wrong at the weights today off a mark of 114 but that is only 4lb higher than his last winning mark. Heavy ground was to blame for his poor run last time and he will be much more at home on the good to soft at Kelso. The question is whether he stays the 4 mile trip but he looked like a stayer on a couple of his runs last term and if you are looking for an each way interest, Dino Boy fits the bill at odds of 22/1.
