Saturday Afternoon Grand Slam Of Darts Preview

These Saturday Afternoon Grand Slam of Darts group stage matches are played in a best of nine leg format. A very short format which does not favour the ‘better’ players. There is no time to play yourself into the game and the pressure is on the big names to perform from the first dart. The lesser-known players have less pressure, many are not worrying about defending ranking points and so on. The top two players make it through to the knockout phase and leg difference is important.

Locking back at recent years, we see examples of fancied players losing group matches and getting knocked out. Joe Cullen and Gabriel Clemens failed to get out of their group last year, thanks to Adam Hunt having a leg difference of -3 to their -4. Cullen played MVG in the last match and let his opportunity slip through his fingers with a bit of brain fade. Peter Wright was knocked out in the group phase, punished for two poor performances, but those apart, there were not many surprises.

Previous Years

In 2019 all the seeds made it through with only Ryan Harrington reaching the knockout stage and Robert Thornton likewise at the expense of Van den Bergh. 2018 Saw an early surprise when Jonny Clayton beat MVG (yes, it was a surprise back then), but MVG still qualified and got his revenge in the knockout stage. Two BDO players, Harms and Unterbuchner, came through the group phase. Gerwyn Price went on to win the title, his first major, which was something of a surprise, but he was already knocking on the door, having reached five televised quarter finals and a semi that season, a form line not unlike Krzysztof Ratajski’s this year.

In 2017 Simon Whitlock lost all three group matches, helping Barry van Peer reach the knockout stage, but all the seeds got through. Two seeds fell in the group stage in 2016, Adrian Lewis lost all three matches and Mensur Suljovic failed to recover from losing his first match to the then BDO player, Danny Noppert.

In the last five years only three seeds have failed to get through the group stage and the favourite has won their group 62.5% of the time. The message is clear, don’t go mad looking for surprises. There will be some, but the favourite tends to do just fine most of the time.

First round Group matches – Afternoon Session

Stephen Bunting vs. Ryan Joyce

Both players have won seven of their last ten matches, both came through the qualifying tournament last week and Bunting won their only previous match 6-3. There is not a lot to go on here. Bunting is the 1.67 favourite with Joyce 2.38. Those odds look about right. There might be a bit of value in Joyce, he tends to be a little underrated, but Bunting is having a decent season, winning a players championship title, and reaching two major semi-finals. Joyce lost to Clayton and Price in deciding legs last year. This could go the same way.

Saturday Afternoon Grand Slam Tips: 1 point over 7.5 legs @ 1.80 with Boylesports

Krzysztof Ratajski vs. Martin Schindler

This could be the match of the day. Ratajski is in top form and is a realistic contender for the title, but he is up against a resurgent Schindler who has been very impressive himself recently.

These two have met five times and Ratajski has won four. However, Schindler won their only match this year and he thrashed Ratajski 6-1, despite the Pole averaging 100 in that match (106 for the German). Schindler can be a very heavy scorer, he hits a lot of maximums (ranked 13th for 180’s per leg in the last 12 months) and he has more than a punchers chance.

Ratajski comes here having won the final players championship of the season and then went on to win his three qualifying matches, making it ten wins in a row. He is the form player of the tournament, never mind this match.

Ratajski is the 1.50 favourite and Schindler 2.75. Much like the opening match, there is some value in the outsiders odds, but Ratajski’s form is strong and he will be hard to beat. Also like the opening match, betting the overs is the way to go.

Saturday Afternoon Grand Slam Tips: 1 point over 7.5 legs @ 1.83 with Boylesports

Merv King vs. Bradley Brooks

The first meeting between the veteran King and the 2020 World Youth Champion, Bradley Brookes. Obviously King has a ton more experience on the TV stage and we last saw him reach the quarter finals of the World Series of Darts finals, where he averaged 115 .6 in a 6-0 demolition of James Wade in the first round. He lost 5-10 to MVG in the quarter but he was on fire in the first two rounds, winning both 6-0. He then played in PC28, lost 5-6 in the first round and withdrew. I do not know why. Illness or injury, whatever, but it is enough to make me swerve this match.

King is the 1.37 favourite which is fair enough if he is fully fit, but the uncertainty is enough to pass over the match. There are plenty of other opportunities. No bet.

James Wade vs. Jim Williams

Wade reached the quarter final of PC30 last week to end a run of six straight defeats. Even that run of four wins was confusing. A 107 average against Jelle Klassen, a 97 against Scott Williams but then 92, 90, 91. His averages have been all over the place, as have his results. Wade is a hard player to predict at the best of times but he is a mystery right now.

Jim Williams is no stranger to this event having played twice before, failing to get out of the group stage. He comes here having won five of his last ten matches, but he won the Challenge Tour OOM and with it an entry to this, the World Championship and a two year tour card. Everything is rosy in his garden in other words.

Getting involved in a first to five leg match, with James Wade in indeterminate form, is not a good betting medium. No bet.

Rob Cross vs. Boris Krčmar

The resurgent Cross is the 1.36 favourite to beat Krčmar for the fourth time in four matches. They have met twice in 2021 with Cross winning 6-0 and 6-5. That’s not much help as a correct score guide.

Krčmar has won five of his last ten and four of those were at the qualifying event for this tournament. That he qualified was a major surprise. He had lost his last five in a row going into that qualifier, but he did play well. All four wins saw 95+ averages and only Dirk van Duijvenbode took him to a deciding leg.

Cross is our number 1 selection to win this title. He is the better player, he is in great form and has a good H2H record over Krčmar. If the big Croatian brings his qualifying form, he can give Cross a match but playing well on the floor is one thing, on a TV stage another. So far Krčmar has played four televised matches and lost the lot, although he did average 107 against Michael Smith in last years players championship finals and lost 5-6.

Krčmar can be backed at 1.62 getting a +2.5 leg handicap which is reasonable but having backed Cross to win the tournament, that is enough interest in the match for me. No bet.

Jonny Clayton vs. Rusty-Jake Rodriguez

There are a lot of Rusty-Jake fans out there saying that he is a player to watch out for. He won the European Development Tour OOM this year, picking up five titles, a two year tour card and entries for this and Ally Pally. He is under no pressure whatsoever and can just go for it and get experience at the top level, on TV. Rusty has played in quite a few players championship events this year and picked up wins against players such as Dave Chisnall, Chris Dobey, Gabriel Clemens, Damon Heta, Van den Bergh, Van Duijvenbode and James Wade. His only major appearance was at this years UK Open were he lost 1-6 to Boris Koltsov.

Rusty-Jake has to play his first big TV match against arguably the best player in the world, so this is a big step up in class and environment. Clayton we know all about and he is the 1.25 favourite.

Rusty-Jake has a very strong A-game and if he can find that on the big stage, he can give Clayton a fright, but Clayton is used to playing against players averaging over the ton and beating them, Rusty-Jake isn’t. This may be one of those matches were everyone talks up the outsider, but the favourite does what favourites should do and win comfortably.

Saturday Afternoon Grand Slam Tips: 1 point Jonny Clayton to win -2.5 legs @ 2.10 with Paddy Power, Betfair

Gerwyn Price vs. Nathan Rafferty

Another short priced Welsh favourite. Price is just 1.14 to win this and its easy to see why. Rafferty got here as the runner up in the UK Development OOM. The winner, Bradley Brooks, had already qualified as the World Youth Champion. Rafferty’s seasonal average is 83.9 and in his last 50 matches he has had two 95 plus averages, which is the minimum if you want to live with the World Champion.

Gerwyn Price might be getting a bit frustrated with his lack of progress in terms of winning more majors, but his standard of play is still very good. His seasonal average is 99.4. That is 15.5 points higher than Rafferty’s. That is a huge difference.

The chances of Rafferty bringing his A-game and Price his D-game are remote. Price has won this tournament in two of the last three years and he will want his trophy back. I don’t expect a lacklustre effort from Price.

Last year we had eight group stage mis-matches and four went to six legs, two were white washes and two went to a deciding leg. One of those that went to a decider was Price vs. vs. Suzuki. Price looked like he was trying to be kind to the lady and wasn’t trying too hard. I doubt he will make the same mistake.

Saturday Afternoon Grand Slam Tips: 1 point under 6.5 legs @ 2.48 with Unibet

Chris Dobey vs. Rowby-John Rodriguez

Late call up man, Chris Dobey, will be looking to grab this chance with both hands. He is in great form and a first match win will settle him in nicely. Dobey has won seven of his last ten matches, but lost the last three. He won players championship 28 in magnificent style, won his next two matches well, but then had a couple of iffy matches before losing his first qualifying match for this event, 3-5 to William O’Connor. He averaged 97 in that match, so it was a good effort.

Rowby-John will be the second Rodriguez of the afternoon session. If his brother wins his match earlier, expect Rowby-John to be busting a gut to match his sibling. Rowby-John qualifies for being runner up in the World Cup of Darts but his from on the pro tour isn’t in the same league as Dobey. At the recent Super Series, Dobey won a title, Rodriguez won two matches. Dobey’s seasonal average is 97.5, Rodriguez’ pro tour average 89.9. The Austrian does raise his game at pro-tour level and he likes the big stage.

Quality A-Game

Rowby-John does have an excellent A game, in 10% of his last 50 matches he has hit a ton plus average. He brought it when he last played Dobey, PC20 in July, and Dobey still won 6-4. They have met five times and it is 3-2 to Dobey so he is not nailed on.

This is all about who can bring their best form. Rowby-John certainly has more than a punchers chance but if Dobey can bring his game form PC28, then he wins.

Dobey is the 1.44 favourite, Rodriguez 3.00. It is a hard match to call. Rodriguez is a dangerous opponent but not that consistent. He has played in two previous GSOD and won two of his six matches. The last was back in 2015 and he should be a better player now.

Dobey should win but he may have to work hard for it.

Saturday Afternoon Grand Slam Tips: 1 over 7.5 legs @ 1.91 with Boylesports 

-JamesPunt