Saturday Aintree and Sandown Tips by Dave Stevos
Saturday Aintree and Sandown Tips
It was poor enough fare on Friday but at least we nicked some place money with Zyon (16s 1/5 odds) and Uallrightharry (22s NAP). The King’s Writ needed the run this time and blew up. The ground was too soft for Fairway Freddy. At Sandown, the clerk of the course said the chase course was good, good to soft in places but it was a lot more testing than that so I’m blaming him! It is a superb day of racing tomorrow with The Tingle Creek and Becher Chase the highlights. Check out Dave Stevos’ Saturday Aintree and Sandown tips below.
1.30 Aintree – Juvenile Hurdle (listed)
We backed Addosh last time out when he unseated at Cheltenham. He still had something left in the tank but this soft ground is a worry for him today. One horse who should be at home on the easy surface is Aliomaana for Milton Harris and Harry Reed. This daughter of Raven’s Pass drops in class after an excellent effort in a Cheltenham Grade 2 (16.5f gd). She was only beat 3.75L in 5th behind her stablemate Knight Salute and he is a more than useful yardstick.
This filly’s sole win came on the only occasion she raced on easy ground. It came by nearly 30L at Perth and it could well be that she will be a lot more effective on soft. Her dam is related to a number of horses that like cut in the ground, including Galway Festival regular Baraweez. This doesn’t look a strong race for the grade and while White Pepper is probably the one to beat, at the prices I’d prefer to be on Aliomaana each way at 18/1.
Saturday Aintree and Sandown Tips: Aliomaana e/w @ 18/1
1.50 Sandown – Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
The ground is more testing than the description at Sandown and that has to be a worry for Third Time Lucki. He landed chases at Cheltenham the last twice, both on good ground. The form is rock solid but he seems to be a 15/20lb better horse on that ground than he is on soft. There isn’t much more rain forecast but I doubt he’ll relish the conditions if it is anything like Friday. Edwardstone, on the other hand, enjoys an ease and he made amends for a mishap on his chasing debut when winning at Warwick two weeks ago. If I had to pick between the top two, I’d have to side with him.
Only a short head separated War Lord and Minella Drama last time out. There is likely to be very little between them again here. Il Ridoto was impressive when winning a handicap off 131 last time at Newbury. This represents a big step up in class though and he is probably best watched.
Stolen Silver and Do Your Job are both talented horses and they cannot be discounted. The former beat Edwardstone in a Grade 2 over hurdles on heavy and Do Your Job was 13L ahead of Third Time Lucki in a Grade 1 at Aintree in April. I think Stolen Silver will like the ground better than Do Your Job tomorrow though and with Betfred again paying 3 places, he worth a small interest e/w.
Saturday Ainc Sandown Tips: Stolen Silver e/w @ 14/1 (3 places Betfred)
2.05 Aintree – Many Clouds Chase (Grade 2)
Eight are due to go to post for this 25f Grade 2, hopefully they all hold their ground. The big talking point is the presence of two time Grand National hero Tiger Roll. He is the second highest rated in the field with a mark of 165. It looked like he was finished last season but he bounced back with a terrific win in the X-Country at Cheltenham. You’d think that is his objective again this season and connections are probably hoping to get a few pounds back from the assessor today.
Native River was sent off at 9/4 for this last season on his reappearance but he only finished 3rd. He is 3/1 this time but you’d think he’ll improve massively for the run. Protektorat heads the market at 2s for Skelton and Bridget Andrews. He lost no caste in defeat in the Paddy Power last time (20f gd) but is 25f on soft ground going to suit? He handles soft ground over shorter but his two runs beyond 20f on easy ground resulted in heavy defeats. Skelton’s charge has to prove he stays so 2/1 does not tempt in the slightest. 7/2 about Imperial Aura also looks far too short given his recent displays.
Side With Sam
The one I’ll side with is Sam Brown for Honeyball and Coleman. This horse won first time up two seasons ago at Lingfield (23f hvy). That was followed by a Grade 2 win at Haydock (20f hvy) before he produced a poor run at Ascot. He ran just twice last term and on his comeback he was only 3L behind Imperial Aura at Carlisle (20f hvy). He is 10lbs better off with him now and over this longer distance, he could reverse the form. At odds of 14/1, Sam Brown is the each way selection.
Saturday Aintree and Sandown Tips: Sam Brown e/w @ 14/1
2.25 Sandown – Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1)
Only five run in the Tingle Creek and Chacun Pour Soi is the headline act. Willie Mullins’ prolific son of Policy Maker is back after a 221 day break since his easy win at Punchestown. The 9yo has won seven of his nine starts for Mullins and he was 4/5 last season. His sole defeat came on his only trip across the Irish Sea at Cheltenham in the Champion Chase. His stamina gave out coming up the hill and he could only manage 3rd behind Put The Kettle On and Nube Negra. Chacun’s only other defeat came first time up in 2019 so he might be worth taking on.
Nube Negra re-opposes here and he was arguably an unlucky loser at Cheltenham. He didn’t give his true running behind Chacun next time at Punchestown when beat 25L. It was a lot more like it at Cheltenham on his return three weeks ago when he hammered Politologue by 6L. It was an extremely impressive performance and there could still be more improvement to come from the 7yo son of Dink.
Hitman Interesting At A Price
Greanteen also ran in the Champion Chase and he was close behind Nube Negra and Chacun in 4th. The big worry for him is soft ground as his very best form is on good. Captain Guinness has a lot to find on the ratings and Rachael Blackmore will need to work some magic if he is to hit the frame. At odds of 14/1, Hitman could surprise with a big run. He burned favourite backers big time when going down at Exeter in a G2 on his return. However, it was a super effort to be beat a length behind Eldorado Allen and he was miles clear of Greanteen.
Hitman was runner up in the Grade 2 Novice behind Allmankind on this card last season. Given the quality of that effort, I’d have thought that the Tingle Creek was always going to be his early season target. He’ll strip fitter with that Exeter run under his belt and soft ground is absolutely fine for him. With a rating of 154 he has to improve a chunk but he is still only a 5yo and if the first time tongue tie elicits a bit more improvement, he could put it up to the higher rated ones. At 14/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
Saturday Aintree and Sandown Tips: Hitman e/w @ 14/1
2.40 Aintree – Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
We backed Vieux Lion Rouge in this last season and he dotted up. Martin Pipe’s charge loves these fences and the ground has come right for him. The 12yo is a year older now but he is only 5lbs higher than he was for that 24L romp last season. This is a real horses for courses race and with a nice prep run under his belt, he looks almost certain to hit the frame again at 10/1. Pipe also runs a trio of French imports at the foot of the weights but Vieux surely represents his best chance.
I love Snow Falcon as a horse and Henry Brooke knows this course well. He partnered Highland Lodge to victory in this race in 2015 but I just worry that the trip on soft ground might just stretch his stamina. The one I like at big odds off a mark of 150 is Top Ville Ben. We backed him on his return at Wetherby when he drifted like a barge and ran accordingly. That race clearly wasn’t the plan and this bold jumping front runner could be very well suited by this course.
Well Handicapped
He is now down to a mark of 150, 4lbs lower than he was when giving Didero Vallis a spanking by 8L in a G3 handicap at Wetherby (24f sft). Phil Kirby’s charge hasn’t run in a handicap since and he just hasn’t been up to Grade 2 level. The 10yo son of Beneficial has run poorly on his last three starts but this return to handicaps and a proper jumping test could spark him back to form. With 7 places on offer from William Hill, he is worth backing at 20/1. If you can get double figure odds about Vieux Lion Rouge, he is worth an e/w bet too.
Saturday Aintree and Sandown Tips: Vieux Lion Rouge e/w @ 10/1; Top Ville Ben e/w @ 20/1 (both 7 places)
3.00 Sandown – London National Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Another marathon trip, this time 29f for the London National. The Mighty Don is an infuriating horse but one day he’ll put it all together and win a big one. He ran a cracker behind Yala Enki last time out at Cheltenham off 137 (27f gd). As is his way, he made a couple of bad mistakes but he stayed on strongly and he was only beat 1.25L. The ground is probably a touch too soft for him today so I am not putting him up. I will probably have a small bet on him at 14s because I’d be absolutely sick if he won and I’d nothing on him.
The most solid looking one in here is Christmas In April. Colin Tizzard’s horses have rediscovered their form and this son of Crillon ran a grand race on his return at Carlisle (26f sft). He was badly out of sorts in the middle part of last season and his handicap mark dropped to 129. He landed a 26f heat at Newton Abbott on his final run and he is in off 6lbs higher today.
Brendan Powell’s mount has bags of stamina and he won over this trip at Exeter in 2020. That came on heavy ground and he has also won on good so there are no ground concerns for him today. Surely he’ll come on for his comeback effort and he proved last time this mark is not beyond him. 8/1 looks a fair price about Christmas In April and he is the e/w pick.
Saturday Aintree and Sandown Tips: Christmas In April e/w @ 8/1 (4 places Hills)
3.15 Aintree – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Lucinda Russell is in flying form this season and Aurora Thunder is an interesting contender for her here. This 7yo daughter of Malinas ran a lovely race last time at Musselburgh off 119 (24f sft). The trip stretches her stamina and she did well to finish 4L behind Morraman in 2nd. This mare is at her best at 20f on soft so conditions look perfect today. Her two career wins came at Ayr at that distance and her career form figures at 20f to 21f on soft/heavy ground read 231221.
It isn’t surprising that connections have been trying her over further. She is related to a couple of stout stayers at 24f but she just doesn’t get the distance. The drop back to 20f is a massive positive for her and while it’s hard to argue that she is well treated, if she produces her best form she is capable of hitting the frame. One thing that this mare does need is a decent pace to aim at and in a competitive race like this, she should get it. At odds of 28/1, hopefully Aurora Thunder can stay on strong and late to reward e/w support.
Saturday Aintree and Sandown Tips: Aurora Thunder e/w @ 28/1 NAP (4 places)
3.35 Sandown – Handicap Hurdle (Listed)
The last live race on ITV4 is this tricky looking Listed 16f handicap hurdle. Thibault did us a favour last season when finishing 2nd at 80/1 at Ascot. As Zyon showed on Friday, Adam West has his horses in good form and this fella bumped into a Graded horse in a handicap at Haydock last time out. He was beat 10L behind Tommy’s Oscar off 125 but he finished ahead of the rest and the handicapper still generously dropped him to 123. That effort came over 19f on good ground but this horse handles easier conditions too.
It was heavy when he last won off 116 at Hereford and he showed he has a bit of toe when subsequently landing a jumper’s bumper at Lingfield over today’s trip. He is now 1lb lower than he was when finishing 2nd in that good Ascot handicap and 4lbs lower than when 2nd on his return to action at Fontwell in October (17f gd/sft). With Jack Tudor’s claim he is effectively in off 120 and he is more than capable of being competitive off that rating. Off bottom weight, Thibault can outrun his odds of 20/1.
