Saturday Ascot and Haydock Tips by Dave Stevos
Saturday Ascot and Haydock Tips
Friday’s tips can go straight into the bin. The ground was like glue at Lingfield and while my selections were all proven on heavy ground, they hated whatever those conditions were at Lingfield. It’s a really exciting day of action on Saturday and I can’t wait to see how Tommy’s Oscar goes. The big match between Shishkin and Energumene should be a cracker too although First Flow may well play a big part in that race too. Hopefully our fancies run better than on Friday, check out Dave Stevos’ Saturday Ascot and Haydock tips below.
1.25 Haydock – Supreme Trial (Grade 2)
Just the seven will go to post in this Grade 2 on a day when small fields are the norm. Jonbon is near the head of the market for the Supreme itself and he is short odds to win this. The son of Walk In The Park has won all three starts under rules but you couldn’t read too much into his 2.75L win at Ascot last time. They went an absolute crawl for the majority of the race and while Jonbon quickened up the best after the third last, it remains to be seen how he fares in a more strongly run affair.
We should learn a lot more about him today. Richmond Lake, who is 2/3 over hurdles, won’t hang around and he should ensure that the race is run at a decent clip. He won an ordinary novice last time at Sedgefield but he is unlikely to be able to dominate this far stronger race.
Jonbon isn’t the only horse coming into this race with an unbeaten record. Nick Alexander’s Donny Boy is 3/3 (one P2P) and his two rules wins have come by a combined distance of 22.5L. He hacked up at Newcastle on his hurdling debut and Alexander reckons he has the potential to be the best he has trained. The son of Westerner is a chaser in the making but he could make his mark over timber. He more than deserves his place in this race.
Big Chance Lebowski
However, I was even more taken with Lebowski’s performances when winning his first two hurdle starts. Michael Scudamore’s son of Aizavoski couldn’t win a bumper but jumping has been the making of him. He tracked a really fast pace on his first run over timber at Ffos Las (16f sft), jumping well throughout. When the pace collapsed, he remained hard on the steel and he won doing handstands by 6L. The third home dotted up in a maiden on his next start so there is substance to the form.
He gave his eleven rivals weight and another beating on his last start at Ayr. This time he set his own pace and again, he barely came off the bridle to win by 3L. The runner up, who he was giving a stone to, scored in a maiden next time out. Jonbon is probably the most likely winner but I wouldn’t be shocked if he was turned over. At the prices, Lebowski is well worth chancing each way at 22/1.
Saturday Ascot and Haydock Tips: Lebowski e/w @ 22/1 NB
1.45 Ascot – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Off a rating of 135, Esprit Du Large could go well for Williams and Wedge. This 8yo son of No Risk At All was a hugely promising chaser at one point but he lost his confidence after a crashing fall in the Arkle in 2020. After that mishap he only managed to complete once in his next five starts, the last two coming over hurdles. Willams’ charge was pulled up on his seasonal comeback at Cheltenham in December. However, he finally showed some of that old spark when running a cracker in 2nd behind Honneur D’Ajonc at Exeter last time out.
That effort came off 135 and it will have done his confidence the world of good. He has yet to race at Ascot but his last three wins have come on right handed tracks so he should be fine. Soft ground suits him well and he is on a very dangerous rating if he can even get back to 80% of the ability he showed when beating Nube Negra in a G1 chase at Sandown. Given his patchy record he isn’t one for maximum stakes but if he runs like he is capable of, Esprit Du Large has every chance of hitting the frame at odds of 14/1.
Saturday Ascot and Haydock Tips: Esprit Du Large e/w @ 14/1 (4 Places)
2.00 Haydock – Champion Hurdle Trial (Grade 2)
The Clarence House might be seen by some as the big race of the day, but not for me. The horse I am most looking forward to watching is Tommy’s Oscar. Obviously, I won’t be tipping him up at odds of 4/6 but I’ll be cheering him on. I have backed him at 50/1 for the Champion Hurdle so he’ll need to be winning this if connections are going to go for the big one.
On ratings, he should win fairly easily but racing doesn’t always work out that way. The ground is a slight worry as his last three wins have come on good or good to soft. He has won on soft in the past though and he has won at Haydock over 19f. Fingers crossed he’ll be able to show how talented he is.
12yo Hunters Call is next best in the betting. He ran a cracking race last time in a G2 at Cheltenham, following up his easy handicap win at Bangor (19f sft). That win came off 137 though and Tommy’s Oscar won off 150 at Musselburgh so it is hard to see him causing an upset.
The biggest threat could come from last year’s winner Navajo Pass. He has run three absolute stinkers since beating Buveur D’Air last January. However, the front runner was inexplicably held up last time and I suspect McCain may have just been lining him up for a repeat bid in this. I think Tommy’s Oscar wins but at the prices, I’ll have a small play on Navajo Pass e/w.
Saturday Ascot and Haydock Tips: Navajo Pass e/w @ 14/1
2.20 Ascot – Warfield Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
At double figure odds, Anythingforlove makes most appeal here. Jamie Snowden trains this 7yo daughter of Black Sam Bellamy and she is a very talented horse when she puts it all together. She landed a G2 Hurdle at Sandown last February (20f hvy) and she was put away for the season. Snowden decided to go down the chasing route when she returned to action in October. Those plans were shelved after a couple of underwhelming efforts and connections decided to have a go in a handicap hurdle off 127.
She absolutely hacked up in that 24f contest, her first try at the trip. She dropped back to 20f last time out in a G2 and she ran a lovely race, finishing just 1.25L behind the 144 rated Martello Sky. Skyace was 4.75L behind in 3rd and she is rated 142. I think a rating of 136 underestimates this mare and I don’t think she should be five times the price of the 145 rated Mollys Ollys Wishes, who she gets 1lb from. Going back up in trip is a big plus, Page Fuller has been on board for three of her six wins and the ground should be soft enough. At odds of 10/1, Anythingforlove is definitely worth backing each way.
Saturday Ascot and Haydock Tips: Anythingforlove e/w @ 10/1 NAP
2.35 Haydock – Peter Marsh Handicap Chase (Class 2)
We backed Fortescue for the Welsh National but connections didn’t fancy it and he instead stuck to 3 miles at Kempton. Unsurprisingly, he lacked the speed for that test and he was beat a length into 2nd off 137. Not only did Henry Daly’s charge fail to win, he also got handed a 3lb hike so it was a pretty disastrous decision in hindsight. He is 3lbs out of the weights here so he is effectively racing off 143. However, Hugh Nugent’s 5lb claim means he is only 1lb higher than he was at Kempton.
In my opinion, this son of Shirocco does nothing but stay all day. 26f around here on soft ground should be a lot more to his liking. The testing ground at Haydock will be right up his alley and Hugh Nugent knows him really well and has won twice on him before. Henry Daly has been amongst the winners and while I think Fortescue will likely end up in one of the Nationals in the Spring, this is a nice pot in its own right so hopefully he is trying. At odds of 16/1, he is more than capable of making his presence felt.
Saturday Ascot and Haydock Tips: Fortescue e/w @ 16/1 (4 Places)
2.55 Ascot – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Just the eight go to post in this class 2 handicap and a trip of 21f awaits them. Palmers Hill heads the market after his 19f win here last time out. He has won over this distance in the past and an 8lb rise may not be enough to stop him. Knight In Dubai finished 3rd in that race, 13L behind Palmers Hill. He is 11lbs better off now so he might finish closer but it is hard to see him beating the fav.
Fanion D’Estruval and Killer Clown both won impressively last time out too. The former horse hacked up at Newbury off 152 and he is effectively just 1lb higher here thanks to Lucy Turner’s claim. Killer Clown got a 7lb rise for his 9L win at Wincanton but he has to prove himself off this high a rating.
Golden Whiskey and Amour De Nuit also come into the race on the back of wins at Chepstow and Musselburgh respectively. Golden Whisky is marginally preferred of those two because he is a shade more consistent. However, the bookies are taking no chances in this race and nothing jumps out as being massively overpriced. If a gun was put to my head, I’d probably chance Golden Whisky e/w at 10s but to be honest, I think this race is best watched. No bet.
Saturday Ascot and Haydock Tips: No bet
3.35 Ascot – Clarence House Chase (Grade 1)
There may be only four runners in this Grade 1, but three of them are seriously talented animals. The home challenge is spearheaded by Nicky Henderson’s Shishkin. I am running out of superlatives to describe this absolute monster of a horse. He has never been beaten when completing and he looked better than ever when hacking up at Kempton over Xmas. He had a wind op in the off season and if that has elicited more improvement, God help his rivals. Shishkin is the 4/5 fav and deservedly so.
Energumene is rated 171, just 1lb less than Shishkin. Willie Mullins’ son of Denham Red is another winning machine. He is 7/8 under rules, his only loss coming in a maiden hurdle. His next seven runs all ended in victory, including Grade 1s at Leopardstown and Punchestown. Paul Townend’s mount won a Grade 2 by 8L on his comeback at Cork in December.
However, I am not sure how strong his form is. He beat a stayer in Franco De Port when winning his Leopardstown G1 by 10L. Shishkin beat the same horse 40L at Cheltenham. When he won at Punchestown he also beat a 20f+ horse and the horses he beat last time are no superstars either. This is going to be his first proper race against a top class operator and a course specialist. It is also his first run outside of Ireland for Mullins so he has questions to answer.
Flow No Back Number
We backed First Flow when he ran out a very easy winner of this race last season. The son of Primary loves it at Ascot and he had a perfect prep run when winning a 20f G2 at Huntingdon. Kim Bailey’s stable star is 2/2 over C&D and he left the likes of Politologue, Waiting Patiently and Fanion D’Estruval trailing in his wake when winning this last year. On his day this horse is a strong travelling, accurate jumper and he has a decent turn of foot too.
Unlike his two biggest rivals who will be targeting Cheltenham, this fella has likely been trained specifically for this race. To be honest, I can’t see Shishkin losing this but if he isn’t on his game, I think First Flow could be the one to pick up the pieces. With just four runners and no each way betting, I’m going to play the Shishkin/First Flow reverse forecast. Hopefully all the main protagonists bring their best and the race lives up to the hype.
