Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham Tips Dave Stevos
Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham Tips
Unfortunately our NAP Potters Legend was a non-runner for us earlier and in hindsight, it’s a pity the rest of them weren’t pulled out too. Methodtothemadness didn’t look right and pulled up. Blast Of Koeman did what he does best and unseated at the second. Ernesto travelled and jumped well but it was too soft for him. It is frustrating because the ground is betwixt and between at Cheltenham. It is too slow for the good ground horses and too quick for the mudlarks. Hopefully tomorrow’s selections show up better than today’s, check out Dave Stevos’ Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham preview below.
1.50 Cheltenham – Racing Post Gold Cup (Grade 3)
First up on Saturday is this Grade 3 handicap chase and a field of 15 will go to post. A good few of these ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup here in November, including the winner, Midnight Shadow. He, along with the likes of Lalor, Dostal Phil and Coole Cody should all go well again but the one I am backing today was the 11th home, Deyrann De Carjac.
Trained by Alan King, this fella was having his first run back in the Paddy Power last time out. He was in rear the whole way round and a slow jump three out didn’t help his cause. However, he did stay on pretty well from the second last and he finished 9L behind the winner and 5L behind Dostal Phil in 4th. That run was off 137 and the handicapper has now dropped him to a very dangerous mark of 133.
That means the son of Balko is 11lbs better off with Midnight Shadow and 5lbs better off with Dostal Phil. It was only five runs back that Deyrann De Carjac finished 2L behind Midnight Shadow in a C&D Grade 2 off level weights. He gets 21lbs from him here. King’s horse lost his form afterwards but his last run was a small step back in the right direction. He should come on plenty for that outing fitness wise. If he can build on that, he will outrun his odds of 25/1.
Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham Tips: Deyrann de Carjac e/w @ 25/1 NAP (5 Places)
2.05 Doncaster – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Regular readers will be aware of how highly I rate Tommy’s Oscar. Ann Hamilton’s son of Oscar is a dinger of a horse. He finally showed what he was capable of when winning by 10L off 138 last time out at Haydock (19f gd). This 6yo is a strong traveller, a slick jumper and he has gears. The drop back to 16f on a speed track like Doncaster is a slight worry but I don’t think it’ll be an issue. His last start over 16f was on his seasonal bow (beat 1.5L). He also ran a cracker over the trip when 3rd in the Scottish Champion Hurdle.
The handicapper has hiked him up to 147 for that Haydock win. I thought connections would be stepping him back up in Grade on his next start. The fact they are running in this suggests that they think he is still well handicapped. I fully agree. There is rain forecast at Doncaster and that would be a worry if the race was over 19/20f. However, over the minimum distance, this horse should be fine. Connections eventually plan to go chasing with this lad but if he wins easily tomorrow, it will be fascinating to see where he turns up next.
Sonigino and Takeit Easy, who beat him at Wetherby, are the most obvious dangers but I think Tommy’s Oscar is a much better horse than those two and I am surprised he isn’t the favourite after his commanding Haydock win. Hopefully Geronimo and Lucky One ensure it is a truly run race and if it is, Tommy’s Oscar will be hard to beat at 5/1.
Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham Tips: Tommy’s Oscar win @ 5/1
2.25 Cheltenham – Bristol Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
Just the six go to post for this Grade 2 and the trip is 24f. Blazing Khal, a strong ante-post fancy for the potato race in March, is the market leader for Charles Byrnes and Donal McInerney. Byrnes probably hasn’t had a horse like this since Solwhit. On what we have seen so far, Blazing Khal has the potential to follow in his hoofsteps. He swatted Gelino Bello and front runner Current Mood aside over 21f (gd) here last time. A similar fate could await those two today, despite the swing in the weights.
Barony Legends was a wide margin winner on his hurdling debut at Lingfield (19f sft). However, that form is very questionable and this will be a whole lot harder on different ground. We backed Current Mood the last day and I don’t think she didn’t stay, she just got outpaced. She should be well suited by this extra 3f and while it is hard to see her outstaying Blazing Khal, she could reverse the form with Gelino Bello and nick 2nd. At the prices, Current Mood is worth a small investment e/w at 20/1.
Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham Tips: Current Mood e/w @ 20/1
2.40 Doncaster – Summit Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)
With rain forecast at Doncaster before racing, it is likely to be on the soft side for this Grade 2. That is unfortunate because on decent ground, I would have fancied Knight Salute to go very close here. Milton Harris’ son of Sir Percy has done nothing wrong over timber. He ran out a very impressive winner in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time out. His three hurdle wins have come on genuine good ground though and he was well beat on his two previous runs on the level on easy ground.
We backed Too Friendly on the flat during the summer but he was well beat. He lost his form badly in that sphere but the switch to hurdling has sparked him back to life. He is 2/2 after wins at Stratford and Newcastle, both on good to soft. Dan Skelton’s charge won here on the flat over 10f and he has obvious claims. Porticello will love the ground and he is 2/2 over hurdles too. Soft ground holds no fears for him and I can see why the bookies have made him favourite.
Magistrato finished behind Knight Salute last time at Cheltenham but he is a shorter price than him today. He was 3.25L behind the Harris horse and he is 5lbs better off with him now. Will that be enough to turn the form around? If it was good ground I’d say no but on soft, he probably will. To be honest, nothing looks massively overpriced in this race so I think it is best left alone. I’d love to see Knight Salute win but the rain is off-putting. No bet.
Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham Tips: No bet
3.00 Cheltenham – International Hurdle (Grade 2)
Just the seven will go to post for this 16f G2 and a case can be made for a couple of them. Sceau Royal is the favourite after his excellent effort in the Fighting Fifth (16f gd/sft). Alan King’s admirable 9yo is a very talented horse on his day and he usually gives his running. He has looked as good as ever in three starts this season but the worry is the ground. He is a multiple C&D winner but he has never scored here on ground with soft in the description.
While conditions may be just a shade too slow for Sceau Royal, it probably isn’t soft enough for Song For Someone. The 2020 winner of this race is best when it is properly soft and the more rain that falls, the better his chance will be. Irish raider Ballyadam is in the same boat. His two hurdle wins have come on soft ground and his runs on ground with good in the description were well below his best. He reverts to hurdles after failing to take to chasing and he is best watched.
At double figure odds, perhaps Heaven Help Us can give us a run for our money. This mare ran out a fairytale winner at the festival in March over 21f. She has won on surfaces ranging from heavy to good to soft so at least there will be no ground concerns. This daughter of Yeats is 2/3 at this track and she gets a handy weight allowance from the boys. She should strip fitter for her comeback at Punchestown and at 11/1, she is the each way pick.
Saturday Doncaster and Cheltenham Tips: Heaven Help Us e/w @ 11/1 (3 places Hills)
3.35 Cheltenham – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Nothing jumps out in the 3.15 at Doncaster but I do like one at an attractive price in this concluding handicap hurdle for the mares. We backed Anythingforlove once last season, in a Haydock G2, and it was her only defeat, barring her comeback. Of course, she went on to win at 18/1 in a 20f G2 on her next start and that was it for the season.
This season connections opted to go down the chasing route but that has been aborted. The daughter of Black Sam Bellamy wasn’t the slickest jumper of hurdles so it wasn’t too surprising that she struggled over the bigger obstacles. The return to hurdles looks a good move and I think this mare could prove to be a lot better than her current mark of 127 over timber.
Sandymount Rose chased her home in the G2 she won at Sandown and she placed in a Listed hurdle on her next start. Anythingforlove’s best form has come on soft ground but her half brother Sizing John didn’t mind good to soft and her full sister Deadringerforlove won on similar ground for Harry Fry. Jamie Snowden thinks a lot of this mare and at odds of 16/1, she is the each way selection.
