Saturday European Championship Finals Tips

James Punt landed another couple of nice winners on Friday night. Noppert (2.16) and Aspinall -1.5 (2.10) both got the job done and hopefully we can get a few more on the board today during the two sessions. Check out James Punt’s Saturday European Championship Finals Tips below.

Joe Cullen vs. William Borland

It was a big win for Big Willie when he beat Simon Whitlock 6-3 on Thursday night. He was clearly over the moon, and it moved him to a provisional 64th on the OOM. A win this afternoon and he would be comfortably into the top 60 and further away from a return to Q school.

 Joe Cullen had no problems beating Ted Evetts 6-0 in his first-round match. He has only won four of his last ten matches and while he has put in some very good performances in those ten matches, there have been some duff ones as well. He is hard to call in other words.

Borland only averaged 87 vs. Whitlock and a repeat of that is unlikely to be enough. He has won seven of his last ten and has put in better performances but three of last six averages have been 87.

Joe Cullen is the 1.30 Favourite and William Borland the 3.75 outsider. They have met once before, and Cullen was the 6-4 winner. Borland has beaten Whitlock, Suljovic and Danny Noppert in his last six matches, so he can’t be easily dismissed. However, this is a very big match for him, it is a best of 19 leg format, and he has only played one long match format match in a televised major, losing 5-10 to Jelle Klassen in the 2020 UK Open. It took Cullen eight, first to ten matches, before he won one. His overall record in televised first to 10 leg matches is played 29 and won 8, so not great, but he has a lot more experience and that should be enough.

Odds of 1.30 make little appeal but I’ll take a chance on Cullen to cover the handicap.

Saturday European Championship Finals Tips: 1 point Joe Cullen to win -3.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfair, Betvictor, SpreadEx

Brendan Dolan vs. Rob Cross

These two have played six times with Dolan winning four. They have played three times in 2021 and it is 2-1 to Dolan. Rob Cross did win their last meeting, winning 6-1 in June. They have never met on stage before.

Rob Cross will be trying to do something he hasn’t done since 2^nd August and win back-to-back matches. He beat Keane Barry 6-3 in the first round. It was a poor match with both players averaging in the mid-eighties. Cross has won eight of his last fifteen first to ten format matches and he has lost six of his last ten televised matches.

Brendan Dolan beat Kim Huybrechts 6-2 in the first round. It was a good performance, averaging 95.95, very much in line with his seasonal average of 95.7. Dolan has won seven of his last ten matches and six of his last ten televised matches. More concerning is that he has won just three of his last 10 first to ten legs format matches.

Dolan is the 1.91 favourite, Cross 2.00. That looks about right to me. Cross is unlikely to be as poor as he was in the first round and Dolan is not as bankable on stage as he is on the floor. In a match where it is hard to call a clear favourite should we expect a close match? The have had one 6-5 match on the floor, otherwise their matches have been quite one sided so there are no hints there. This is a no bet match for me.

Luke Humphries vs. Jose de Sousa

The H2H stats make grim reading for Humphries, trailing 1-5 to The Special One and losing both their 2021 matches, including a 1-8 drubbing in a player’s championship final.

However, what will give him hope is that De Sousa’s recent form is well short of how he was playing in the spring and summer. He was averaging nearly 100 back then but in his last ten non double in format matches he is averaging 91.7. He has visibly looked off his game and he has revealed that he suffered a reaction to his second Covid jab which left his muscles feeling sore. He says that he is feeling much better now, almost back to normal, but we shall see. He was poor when beating Lewy Williams 6-4 in the first round and arguably lucky to get through. It was another sub 90 average.

Luke Humphries beat Callan Rydz 6-5 in the first round. He averaged 94.3 and while wasn’t at his best, he showed a good fighting spirit to get over the line. This is a good opportunity for Humphries to improve on his poor H2H record against De Sousa. Humphries is playing better than De Sousa has been, but Cool Hand is the bookies outsider and he is worth a flutter at the odds.

Saturday European Championship Finals Tips: 1 point Luke Humphries to win @ 2.38 with Betfred, Betfair, Betvictor

Ryan Searle vs. Danny Noppert

Both players were very impressive in the first-round matches. Searle averaged 101.9 when coming from behind to beat Michael Smith 6-5 and Noppert averaged 102 when dispatching Ratajski 6-2. Their H2H stats are 4-0 to Danny Noppert who is now the provisional number 16 in the rankings. He is scoring well and full of confidence. That is an irresistible combination.

Searle is still improving, and he too is playing well, winning seven of his last ten and having good tournament runs. He won his second pro tour title in August, and he has kept that good run of form going.

We have here two in-form, high scoring players and it is a hard one to call on paper. The H2H record points you towards Noppert and just his general demeanour says, back me. The market disagrees and makes Searle the marginal favourite. Searle has played five first to ten matches and won one. Three of those were in 2021 at the UK open and all three finished with 10-7 score lines. Noppert has won both their TV matches and he is the selection to make it three.

Saturday European Championship Finals Tips: 1 point Danny Noppert to win @ 2.00 with Hills, Ladbrokes

Saturday European Championship Finals Tips: 0.5 point Noppert to win 10-7 @ 10.00 with Unibet

-James Punt