Saturday Kempton and Haydock Tips – DS
Saturday Kempton and Haydock Tips
We landed a couple of places last week but it was a disappointing return. Tangled landed place money at 10s and so did Able Kane (NB) at 14s. Nothing went right for Bet Me and the galloper Forgivable was ridden for a turn of foot. Again. Barbanera settled almost too well and just missed out on a place. It wasn’t soft enough for Mo Celita and Big Baby Bull missed a place by a short head. Let’s hope for better tomorrow, Saturday Kempton and Haydock (and Ascot) tips are below.
1.15 Haydock – Ascendant Stakes (Listed)
Just six runners in this Listed heat for the 2yos and Naval Power is odds on. He has won 3/3 so far, including a Listed race by 6.5L last time. The horse he beat into 2nd that day is no mug and this son of Teofilo is an exciting prospect. Lion Of War’s reputation took a knock last time in a Newmarket G2 but he looked hugely promising on his first two starts. Maybe he can bounce back and give the fav something to think about. However, just 2 places on offer and no e/w value to be found. No bet.
Saturday Kempton and Haydock Tips: No Bet
1.45 Haydock – Superior Mile Stakes (Group 3)
Maries Diamond is one of those horses that is almost always underestimated by the oddsmakers. This entire is a solid yardstick and on two of his last three starts (in a 9f G3 and 8f Listed) only two horses have finished in front of him. Last time in a 9f G3 at York he was 3rd behind Alflaila and Finest Sound and he had some useful 3yos in behind (Masekela etc.). Three runs ago he chased Alflaila home at Pontefract, the last time he ran over a mile in Listed company, only beat 1.5L.
There was a poor Haydock effort sandwiched between those runs but that was over 10f. His last three wins have come over a mile and he has won over 7f here in the past. Just like last time, he’ll be up against some promising 3yos here and he’ll have to concede weight. However, a few of those 3yos have question marks against them.
Can Tacarib Bay handle stakes company? Will Triple Time need the run? Has Bayside Bay trained on and does he need rain? The fav Reach For The Moon is the most solid of the younger generation but that is reflected in his odds. Marie’s Diamond is as big as 28/1 and hopefully he makes a bold bid and hangs on for the e/w money.
Saturday Kempton and Haydock Tips: Marie’s Diamond e/w @ 28/1
2.05 Kempton – September Stakes (Group 3)
There are some good horses in here coming into the race on the back of below par runs. It’s a retrieval mission for Mostahdaf backers after he flopped at short odds last time at Newmarket. To be fair to Dubai Honour he was up against Baaeed last time but he should have been beating Sir Busker given they were off levels. Solid Stone has run poorly on two of his last three outings but he did win at Chester on his penultimate start.
Third Realm is another enigmatic type. When we backed him to win his Derby Trial I thought the sky was the limit for this lad. However, he has only won a Listed since and he may need soft ground. Joseph O’Brien will be hoping Gear Up can atone for the vetting problems he had with his intended Aussie runners during the week. His 4yo arrives in good form and if he acts on the surface he could go very close.
Interesting Outsider
Of the outsiders, Universal Order makes some appeal. David Simcock’s charge chased Zechariah home at Newbury on his last start (13f gd/fm). 12f is his optimum trip and we know he handles the track as he was beaten a nose here as a 2yo. He won his only other a/w start at Newcastle and there should be plenty of early pace on here which will play to his strengths. Callum Shepherd was on board for his last win, hopefully he can produce him late for place money here at odds of 25/1.
Saturday Kempton and Haydock Tips: Universal Order e/w @ 25/1
2.20 Haydock – Betfair Handicap (Class 2)
A field of 16 3yos will go to post for this valuable 14f handicap. The winner takes home over £50k so hopefully, most of them will be trying. I really fancied Speycaster last time out and he ran a blinder over today’s C&D. He hasn’t been seen since, probably because connections were waiting for easy ground. He has run ok on fast ground before but that last effort on soft was a career best by some way. The conditions may be too quick for him today and at 17/2 I’m happy to let him go unbacked on this occasion.
At a price, Jacovec Tavern could have room for manoeuvre off his current mark of 79. Mick Channon’s son of Sixties Icon got off the mark at the sixth attempt at Ffos Las last time. He absolutely hacked up on his first try at 12f (gd), finally delivering after showing a lot of promise on his second career start at Pontefract (10f gd/fm). In that maiden he was less than a length behind the now 84 rated Chillingham and over 3L ahead of Chimed, since 2nd in a handicap off 79.
This horse scored off 70 last time out with George Bass claiming 5lbs. He can only claim 3lbs here off 79 so today, he is effectively 11lbs higher. Lexington Knight was over 4L behind in 2nd at Ffos Las, a horse that has form that ties in with Sarsons Risk, a 9/1 shot here. This extra 2f could bring about even more improvement from Jacovec Cavern and at 18/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
Saturday Kempton and Haydock Tips: Jacovec Tavern e/w @ 18/1 (5 Places)
2.40 Kempton – London Mile Series Final (Class 2)
The TXODDS silks will be in action here with On A Session. He ran another solid race last time at Chester, his 4th good run on the bounce. It won’t be easy off a mark of 95 but hopefully he can run another nice race and nick some more prize money. The one I am interested in is Fantasy Believer.
Ed Walker’s son of Make Believe was sent off at 11/2 for this race last year. He was in off a pound lower but he was slow from the stalls and couldn’t land a blow. He landed a pair of races at Newbury and Ascot, both at 8f, in June and July before an average effort over 9f at Goodwood when it looked like he wasn’t off a yard.
This horse has a nice pot in him at some stage and I am hoping he’s been targeted at this. He has won three times over this C&D and he was beat a nose here under Kingscote off 85 back in March. Things will need to drop right for him given his racing style and he can’t afford to blow the start. If things go smoothly he is more than capable of going close off 88 and at 14/1, Fantasy Believer is the e/w selection.
Saturday Kempton and Haydock Tips: Fantasy Believer e/w @ 14/1 (4 Places) NB
2.55 Haydock – Old Borough Cup Handicap (Class 2)
Dark Jedi has unfinished business in this race. In 2020 he ran huge to finish a short head behind Euchen Glen on ground plenty soft for him. That rival was in off 101 and Dark Jedi was racing off 92 and the Goldie horse is now 2lbs better off. Dark Jedi is now rated 98, with his last win coming at Ayr back in June (13f gd) off 94. He has run really well on his last three starts off his revised rating, including when beat just a short head by Sir Chauvelin on his last try at 14f (gd).
The last twice he has raced over 12f and this step back up to 14f will suit. He admittedly flopped in the Old Newton Cup over 12f here last season when just 5/1 but conditions were probably too testing for the son of Kodiac. That Musselburgh 2nd proved his current rating isn’t beyond him and with the underrated Duran Fentiman in the plate, Dark Jedi can hopefully go one better than in 2020. At 25/1, he is the e/w pick. May the force be with him…
Saturday Kempton and Haydock Tips: Dark Jedi e/w @ 25/1 (4 Places)
3.10 Ascot – National Racehorse Week Handicap (Class 2)
It’s Ascot, it’s a big pot and it’s a 7f handicap. No prizes for guessing who I am backing here. Ropey Guest has done us plenty of favours when placing at big odds in the past and I am not abandoning him at this stage. He loves it at Ascot and he arrives here off a very competitive mark of 92. He was only beat 1.5L off a pound higher last time out and he is in off the same mark as when we backed him e/w at 40s in the Buckingham Palace at the Royal Meeting.
Regular rider Tom Queally can’t do the weight to ride him here so the evergreen Jimmy Quinn gets the leg up. He is 8/63 when riding for Margarson with a further 16 top 4 finishes. Ropey is drawn right in the middle which will give Quinn options and he should get the furious gallop he requires to show his best. Unfortunately, he isn’t 40/1 today but 16s is more than fair. At those odds, he looks a rock solid e/w bet.
Saturday Kempton and Haydock Tips: Ropey Guest e/w @ 16/1 NAP (5 Places)
3.30 Haydock – Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1)
The feature race this Saturday is the Sprint Cup. This 6f Group 1 is always a cracker and a maximum field of 17 will line up in the stalls. A high draw can be a big advantage here and from stall 17, Castle Star looks a huge price at 28/1. Trained by in form Fozzy Stack, this son of Starspangledbanner has some serious form in the book. He didn’t run that well on his seasonal return but Stack reported the outing was badly needed.
The 3yo should be far sharper now and on his last start over 6f on fast ground he found just Perfect Power too good in the Middle Park. He had Go Bears Go 0.5L behind in 4th and he is over twice the price of that rival today. Ronnie Whelan is over to ride Castle Star and he’ll most likely hold him up and produce him with a late challenge. Maybe this fella will need another run to hit top form but if he is 100% fit tomorrow, I can see him outrunning his odds of 25/1. Can’t see much e/w value in the Lavazza at Ascot so will leave that race alone.
