Saturday Newbury and Ayr Preview and Tips – DS
Saturday Newbury and Ayr Tips
So much for that smidgin of self-belief. I think this is my worst run of form since starting in this game. It would be easy to put up a few shorter Saturday Newbury and Ayr tips today to boost the confidence and try to end this spell. However, I am going to stick to my guns and continue to go big or go home.
On Friday’s selections: Iota’s Angel and Honour Your Dreams both ran well enough but didn’t make the frame. Seantrabh and Illustrating ran absolute stinkers. Chookie Dunedin inexplicably switched to the middle of the track midway through the race. If Sexton had stayed close to the rail, who knows how much closer he’d have finished.
1.20 Ayr – Virgin Bet Handicap (Class 2)
The TXODDS official silks will be in action in this competitive mile handicap. On A Session has been running well all season and hopefully he can produce another solid performance today. Fingers crossed for a good run.
The market leader is the extremely well backed Koy Koy. We backed him at Royal Ascot when of course, he finished unplaced. He has since moved to George Boughey’s and of course, he won off 93 on his next start after the Royal Meeting. He was beaten fair and square off his revised rating of 95 last time and there’s no value left in his price of 4/1.
Consistent
Redarna is an admirable horse who has either won or placed on four of his five starts this season. He’s a horse that needs a strong gallop and a bit of luck but he is a former C&D winner who ought to run his usual solid race again. However, I’m not sure has he much in hand off a rating of 94. The same sentiment applies to Revich off 95. He might need to come down a pound or two to get his head back in front.
One that has shown he is capable of perhaps winning off his current mark is Blenheim Boy. Richard Fahey’s charge will like the slight ease in the ground and he is in off 87. Three runs back at York he was beat just 1.75L off 89 so off 2lbs lower, he looks fairly treated. He raced far too freely behind Shelir last time (Dutch Decoy ahead too) and 10f was too far on his penultimate start. If Oisin Orr can get him to settle, Blenheim Boy has e/w claims at 16/1.
Saturday Newbury and Ayr Tips: Blenheim Boy e/w @ 16/1 (5 Places Hills)
1.40 Newbury – Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3)
A niche distance for this Group 3 of 11 furlongs. We backed Max Vega in the Ebor last time but conditions were too quick. He won here over 12f back in April and he has course form figures of 221. There looks to be a strong pace on here which will play to his strengths but I’d have preferred a bit of rain for him.
Fancy Man is another horse I like and he has form that ties in with Solid Stone. Last season at Windsor (10f gd/fm) he was only beat 0.75L by the Stoute horse but he was getting 7lbs from that rival. He, like Fancy Man, is another horse that likes to get on with things in front and off 2llbs better terms today, you’d have to fancy him to uphold that form. On ratings the top four in the market are well ahead, though Siskany looks a shade short given he hasn’t run for so long. I’m happy to swerve this one. No bet.
Saturday Newbury and Ayr Tips: No bet
1.55 Ayr – Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed)
Another race that doesn’t make much appeal from an e/w perspective. Phantom Flight absolutely hosed up at York last time and he looks an exciting prospect for Horton and McDonald. He has won on good to soft and good to firm so the ground won’t matter and he most definitely has earned his place in this Listed contest.
The biggest danger on paper looks to be Royal Champion. The Varian horses are in great form and this son of Shamardal has already got form in G3 company. He was close up behind Regal Reality (108) and Grocer Jack (116) last time at Windsor (10f gd/sft) and a repeat of that could well be enough.
Marie’s Diamond could outrun his odds of 12/1 but he is going to face competition for the lead from Dark Moon Rising. Those two will likely force a strong pace and will set it up for the closers like the top two and good old Euchen Glen. Stormy Antarctic may not be the horse he was and Forza Orta probably needs further than 10f. Another no bet race.
Saturday Newbury and Ayr Tips: No Bet
2.15 Newbury – World Trophy Stakes (Group 3)
We backed Method earlier this season when he ran a blinder in 3rd at Sandown (5f gd). Martyn Meade’s charge has disappointed the last twice but this is a race that could bring out the best in him. On his penultimate start at this track over 6f he was way too keen early and I am always willing to forgive a below par run at Goodwood, especially in a big field handicap.
On the evidence of Sandown, a strongly run, stiffish 5f is what this horse needs. He did win his Listed race as a 2yo over 6f here but these days, he is better over 5f. On his two runs at the distance he ran 3rd in the Scurry and he chased home the mercurial Winter Power in the G3 Cornwallis at Newmarket. This doesn’t look the strongest of heats, he has a length to find with Mitbaahy on that Sandown run and he had Existent behind him in 4th. At odds of 25/1, Method has the ability to go very close if he brings his best.
Saturday Newbury and Ayr Tips: Method e/w @ 25/1 (4 Places) NAP
2.30 Ayr – Ayr Silver Cup (Class 2)
After watching the Bronze Cup on Friday, the near side and far side are the places to be. The middle part of the track looks slowest so with 25 runners, the strategy here is to back one drawn high and one drawn low (watch the middle stalls finish 1-2-3-4 now!). In stall 5 Bernardo O’Reilly looks a big price at 25s. He is a horse that needs a very strong gallop and this sort of race could really suit him.
Two starts back he ran in a decent handicap off 88 over this C&D on good. He stayed on well to get 3rd, finishing 1.75L behind Snash off 88. He is now 3lbs better off with that rival (8/1 here) and granted a bit of luck in running, I can see him turning the form around. Danny Tudhope, who rode at Ayr, is back on board after a quiet run in a Ffos Las minor handicap and at the prices, he is worth backing e/w.
Higher Draw
If he is fully wound up and ready to go after 80 days off, Full Authority is handicapped to go close from stall 21. On his penultimate start in a hot Epsom (6f gd) handicap he was beat a short head by Mr Wagyu. The winner was in off 94 and he has since won off 100 and is now rated 107. He had the likes of Zargun, Bergerac and Commanche Falls behind.
Full Authority had just one run since, a below par effort at Windsor on good to firm. It was a small field and a muddling race so put a line through it. Ollie Stammers has been booked for the ride today and with his 3lb claim, this fella is just 1lb higher than he was at Epsom. The return to a kinder surface should suit and at odds of 33/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
Saturday Newbury and Ayr Tips: Bernardo O’Reilly e/w @ 25/1; Full Authority e/w @ 33/1 (both 6 places)
2.50 Newbury – Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2)
Just seven runners and not a race I’ll be getting involved in. If there were three places on offer I’d give Rousing Encore another chance as he stayed on very nicely on his last run over 5f. It was a marked change from his usual front running tactics and he seemed to enjoy that style of running. It’ll be interesting to see whether connections stick to the same tactics or will they tell Hanagan to pin his ears back. Either way, I am happy to just watch this one. No bet.
Saturday Newbury and Ayr Tips: No Bet
3.05 Ayr – Firth Of Clyde Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3)
A dozen fillies will go to post in this Group 3 over 6f. We backed Queen Me in the Lowther at York at massive odds and she just failed to get up. It was a superb effort on just her second start and she is the deserved 11/8 fav. Matilda Picotte was behind in 3rd and she has form with some of the best 2yos in Ireland. She’ll be hard to beat if repeating that run.
Maria Branwell has hardly run a bad race this season and 11/1 looks generous about her. She’s hardy, she has experience at a higher level than this and she should be bang there once this isn’t a race too far. Of those at bigger prices, Barefoot Angel makes some appeal. The daughter of Dark Angel made hard work of her novice win at Carlisle but she was still a bit green and she won cosier than the margin suggests.
Excellent Debut
This filly ran a superb race on debut considering she walked out of the gates. Swingalong made all for a 6L win but Barefoot Angel was at least twice as far as that behind the winner at one stage and if she had got away on level terms, she would have finished a lot closer. Swingalong landed the Lowther ahead of Queen Me next time so it is pretty decent form.
Paul Mulrennan takes over from Paul Hanagan in the saddle. Hanagan is at Newbury and stable jockey Oisin Orr prefers Marine Wave (2L behind Barefoot Angel at Ripon). Paul Mulrennan instead gets the leg up and from four rides for this owner, he has two wins and a second. Oisin Orr has had just one ride for her, so maybe she pulled rank rather than Orr having the pick. Either way, I am hoping there is plenty more to come from Barefoot Angel and at 25s, she is worth chancing e/w.
Saturday Newbury and Ayr Tips: Barefoot Angel e/w @ 25/1 (4 places) NB
3.25 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Handicap (Class 2)
One that jumps out as being way overpriced here is Pistoletto. John Ryan’s son of War Front has run really well on his last two starts and his last effort over a mile was excellent. In that Newmarket handicap he finished off really strongly behind Dutch Decoy. In the end he could only manage 4th but he was only 1.25L off the winner and a head bob away from a place in 3rd. When you consider he was denied a clear run 2f out and had to switch, it was a very good effort off 87.
Surprisingly, the assessor left his mark alone for that run. He gets in off the same rating today and Nicola Currie, 4th on him at Ascot on his penultimate start, takes the ride. The three Godolphin horses are clearly dangers but Pistoletto’s run at Newmarket when 2L behind Koy Koy off 91 could be boosted in the opener at Ayr and at 25/1, he can hopefully finish off well for place money.
Saturday Newbury and Ayr Tips: Pistoletto e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)
3.40 Ayr – Ayr Gold Cup (Class 2)
The big one and if we haven’t got a place or a winner on the board by now, this is going to be a very hard race to break the hex in. When I looked at this race last Monday, Motagally was 50/1. When I looked at his form, I couldn’t believe it. He was an excellent 4th in this last year off 98 and his new trainer Scott Dixon has him back for another try off 4lbs lower.
A fine prep run at Doncaster last week should have him spot on but unfortunately, the bird has flown. The Dixon wedge has been applied and he is now into 12/1. Value gone for me but if you are backing him, I wouldn’t put you off.
Classy Operator
On softer ground Vadream would be the pick. I know she ran well on good last time but she is better when there is proper cut in the ground. In the hope that he has been laid out for this race, I am going to take a chance on the classy 8yo Sir Dancealot. This fella was a top quality operator back when trained by David Elsworth. He was a multiple G2 winner in 2018/19 but he had a long spell on the sidelines after finishing 3.5L behind Space Blues in a Goodwood G2 in July 2020.
He made his return in a class 2 handicap at Newcastle (7f) in June, beat 8L off 105. That was likely badly needed and his next run showed plenty of ability remained. Over 6f at Pontefract he ran a huge race, beat just 0.5L off 103 behind Lampang. Bergerac was 0.75L behind off 87 and he re-opposes here off 9lbs worse terms.
My theory is that Paul Mulrennan hopped off that day and said to Butler ‘this lad could go well in the Ayr Gold Cup.’ A couple of quiet runs in G2/handicaps followed but the handicapper hasn’t relented. Even so, on the evidence of that Pontefract run this fella is more than capable of hitting the frame over a strongly run 6f and unsurprisingly, Paul Mulrennan returns to the saddle. At odds of 33/1, Sir Dancealot is the each way selection.
