Saturday Newmarket and Haydock Tips Dave Stevos
Saturday Newmarket and Haydock Preview and Tips
Pogo ran a super race for us earlier but he was our only place at 18/1. We had three non-runners but the other two that did run were shocking. Hopefully we can get a winner on the board tomorrow. Check out Dave Stevos Saturday Newmarket and Haydock tips below.
1.50 Newmarket – Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2)
A fairly disappointing turnout for this 8f G2 with just seven declared. Masekela heads the market for Murphy and Balding. Rated 107, the son of El Kabeir is 2/4 so far. His wins came on debut at Goodwood (6f sft) and over 7f at Newbury (7f gd). On his penultimate start he was short headed by Native Trail on the July Course here in a G2, arguably the best form on offer. His pedigree suggests that this extra furlong should be fine and he is a worthy favourite.
The unexposed one in here is Coroebus. Charlie Appleby has had a brilliant season with his juveniles and this son of Dubawi justified market support when winning easily on debut on the July Course. The runner up, Saga, boosted the form by beating a subsequent winner on his next outing. This is a big step up in class though and he looks short enough at 5/2.
We were on Royal Patronage at 28s last time out but he is shorter today. He has looked top class on his last two starts and whatever wins will have to pass him. The trip is an unknown but he wasn’t stopping over 7f at York. With just two places on offer this is not a betting race for me. I think Royal Patronage is the one to beat but at the odds, I’ll just watch. No bet.
Saturday Newmarket and Haydock Tips: No bet
2.05 Haydock – Betway Handicap (Class 2)
Another seven runner field and another race where I’ll be keeping the powder dry. Noble Peace is favourite for Appleby and Farragher. With his jockey’s 5lb claim he is effectively 2lb lower than when winning narrowly last time at Thirsk. Nugget is a consistent sort and should run his race. It is hard to argue he is well handicapped though. Cruyff Turn is in the same boat but he does have solid course form in the book. However, nothing looks especially overpriced or well treated and this is another no bet race.
Saturday Newmarket and Haydock Tips: No Bet
2.25 Newmarket – Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1)
Irish raider Sacred Bridge is a warm order for this 6f G2 for the 2yos. Trained by Ger Lyons, this filly is 4/4 so far. She has already scored at Listed and Group 3 level and the daughter of Bated Breath has the assistance of Colin Keane in the plate. At the Curragh last time she destroyed the field, winning by nearly 4L. She looked a bit special and she is going to have plenty of supporters at around 15/8.
Sandrine is rated 3lbs inferior to the jolly and she is 3/4 with her sole loss coming last time behind Zain Claudette. There was a length between them that day and I think the Ismael Mohammed filly is capable of upholding that form. Flotus was visually very impressive last time when winning a Listed heat at Ripon. However, she has a lot to find with Sandrine who she has finished well behind on both occasions they have met.
Dreamer Overpriced
Another one that has form that ties in with Sandrine and Zain Claudette is Desert Dreamer. This daughter of Oasis Dream has run some cracking races in defeat this season. Since her debut win over 5f here she followed up in a Novice over today’s C&D. beating Dashing Rat. She probably lacked experience when she was well beat in the Queen Mary at Ascot but she has left that form behind. On her next outing she ran a blinder in a Listed heat on the July Course (6f gd/fm), going down by a neck.
Stuart Williams stepped back up to G2 company next time and she finished 1.75L behind Sandrine. At Ascot on her penultimate start she was only a nose behind Zain Claudette (6f gd/fm). While that gap increased to 3L at York, Desert Dreamer’s saddle slipped. This filly is unbeaten on the Rowley Course and the application of a tongue tie suggests she could be even better than she has shown so far. With a number of bookies paying 4 places, Desert Dreamer is the e/w pick at 14/1.
Saturday Newmarket and Haydock Tips: Desert Dreamer e/w @ 14/1 NAP (4 places)
2.40 Haydock – Betway Handicap (Class 2)
A field of 10 will go to post for this 5f handicap and it is a trappy affair. As is the case with the earlier handicap, a few of these do not look well treated off their current ratings. The one that could go well off a mark of 103 is the top weight, Royal Crusade. He hails from the all-conquering Charlie Appleby yard and Adam Farragher claims 5lbs.
This son of Shamardal has been racing over further this season. He has shaped as though this trip would suit more than once and he has shown plenty of early dash on his last two outings. His last win came in Deauville last September when he beat Glen Shiel in a Group 2 (6f gd). He has had five runs in pattern company since over 6f/7f without troubling the judge. With his pilot’s claim he is effectively in off 98 on his handicap debut and on last season’s form, he could be chucked in. At odds of 9/1, Royal Crusade is the e/w pick.
Saturday Newmarket and Haydock Tips: Royal Crusade e/w @ 9/1 (4 Places)
3.00 Newmarket – Middle Park Stakes (Group 1)
Quite a few of these are closely matched on form. The favourite is Perfect Power and he is bidding to make it two G1 wins on the spin after his Deauville victory last time (6f gd/sft). The son of Ardaad beat Go Bears Go by a head over 5f two starts back at Ascot (gd/fm). On similar ground there will probably be little between them again.
Go Bears Go was beat 1L last time at the Curragh in a G1 but the ground was probably to blame. He was still only a head behind the runner up Dr Zempf and back on faster ground he could reverse that form. However, the one I am taking a chance on is Twilight Jet for Michael O’Callaghan and Leigh Roche. This son of Twilight Son has run massive races the last twice. He ran a blinder at York when 2L behind Lusail and 0.75L behind Gis A Sub.
He followed that up with another good effort over 7f at Doncaster when beat just 1.5L behind Bayside Boy and Reach For The Moon (Lusail behind in 4th). The extra furlong probably just stretched him and the drop back to 6f today will suit. He has just 1.25L to find with Dr Zempf on their Listed run at the Curragh (6f gd) and 2L to find with Castle Star. If he repeats the form of his last run he should outperform his current odds of 25/1. I think he is more than capable of running into a place.
Saturday Newmarket and Haydock Tips: Twilight Jet e/w @ 25/1 NB
3.35 Newmarket – Cambridgeshire Handicap (Class 2)
We hit the bullseye with Majestic Dawn in this race a year ago at 40/1. He is back to defend his crown but he is 10lbs higher and the ground may be a shade on the quick side. A high draw is usually a big plus in this contest and almost all of the market leaders are drawn favourably. One that has a nice starting berth and who could go well at a much bigger price is Epic Endeavour for William Muir and Chris Grassick. They also run Data Protection who will be ridden by Alan Persse. Nicola Currie has been on board for that horse’s last three wins so it is very interesting that she is on Epic Endeavour instead today.
Currie has a fine record for these connections. She has had 10 rides for Muir and Grassick resulting in four wins and three places. Currie was 9/51 with 14 top 4s for Muir before he teamed up with Grassick so she is a jockey they clearly like to use when they fancy one of their horses. Epic Endeavour sneaks in off a mark of 90 thanks to a 4lb penalty he got for winning a three runner race at Carlisle last time (8f gd/fm). That should have boosted his confidence after a few below par efforts and he has previously gone close off this rating.
Solid Form
On his second outing this season Epic Endeavour was 2nd off 90 at Windsor (8f gd). He finished 0.75L in front of Majestic Dawn and he is just 1lb worse off with him now so theoretically, there should be nothing between them here. As far as tactics go, this 4yo son of Epaulette likes to go forward and has made all for two of his four wins. He hasn’t raced beyond a mile yet but he kept on strongly last time over 8f and his pedigree offers encouragement for this distance.
His dam is by Generous and his half-brother has won over hurdles. His sire Epaulette is starting to get going after an average start and 34% of his progeny have won from 7f-9f, compared to just 23% over 5-6f. Epic Endeavour is drawn in stall 20 which is fine and hopefully he doesn’t act the maggot behind the stalls like he has on a couple of occasions this season. If everything goes smoothly he is capable of being competitive off a mark of 90 and at 100/1, hopefully he gives us a good run for our money.
