Saturday Newmarket July Festival Tips – DS
Saturday Newmarket July Festival Tips
We didn’t get a winner on Friday but it was a decent day overall. Phantom Flight (16s), Adaay To Remember (20s NAP) and Sam Cooke (advised NB 20s returned 33s) all placed for us ensuring a profit. The race wasn’t run to suit Tagline and the same applies to Primo Bacio. It is a very busy day tomorrow. We have the Saturday Newmarket July Festival, York and Ascot on ITV and Dave Stevos has tips for all three meetings. Check them out below.
1.45 York – John Smith’s Handicap (Class 2)
Scottish Summit is a horse we have backed in the last two Lincoln Handicaps. He failed to fire in both but he is a very talented horse when on song and he is not handicapped out of this off 94. Only three runs ago he absolutely bolted up off 89 at Newcastle and he wasn’t disgraced in two runs since. Kevin Stott, who rode at Newcastle, is back on board here and if he reproduces the form he showed on his last visit to the Knavesmire, he won’t be far away today.
The son of Shamardal ran in a handicap here (8f gd/fm) off 95 last July. He ran a huge race, beat just 0.5L off top weight in 3rd. His last two runs at Ripon (7f) and Redcar (10f) were not at his optimum trip. A mile on fast ground at York should be much more to his liking. He isn’t getting any younger admittedly but if he repeats what he produced at Newcastle in May, he can run into a place at least at odds of 16/1.
Saturday York Tips: Scottish Summit e/w @ 16/1
2.05 Newmarket – Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2)
We have backed Miss Carol Ann already this season. I had high hopes for her but unfortunately, she hasn’t lived up to expectations. She wasn’t disgraced in a G3 on her comeback, beat just 4.75L over 7f. I thought the drop to Listed company next time might do the trick but she was beaten even further. Now, connections drop in class again and that has to be a worry. Her mark of 93 looks high considering her achievements to date. Odds of 13/2 are not big enough to tempt.
Kidwah heads the market and she remains undefeated after two starts. It was an ordinary race she won last time but she did it well and she could have room for manoeuvre off her opening mark of 88. However, the bookies haven’t missed her and to be honest, neither of the outsiders make much appeal. I’ll give this race a miss, no bet.
Saturday Newmarket July Festival Tips: No bet
2.20 York – John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes (Group 3)
Three runners and a race that makes as much appeal as a pint of Guinness that has been left sitting in the summer sun for an hour. No bet.
Saturday York Tips: No Bet
2.40 Newmarket – Bet365 Mile Handicap (Class 2)
Off a mark of 86, Positive Impact could be well treated. Trained by the Crisfords, you couldn’t read much into his facile win in a match last time. However, there is substance to the form of two of his previous placed efforts. At Thirsk (8f gd) on his debut in May Positive Impact ran a lovely race to finish 3rd, 2.5L behind Noble Anthem. The runner up hasn’t raced since but the winner has and he was a handicap winner off 85 on his last start.
Next time on his second start at Leicester (8f gd/fm) the son of Shamardal went even closer. This time he finished 3rd, 0.5L behind Chasing Aphrodite. He was a head behind the runner up, Knight of Honour, and he has since won his Novice and gone very close in a handicap off 87 (now rated 91). The 4th home, Tathbeet, was 2L behind our selection and he scored in a Windsor novice next time out.
He just failed to beat Bay Of Honour on his next start back at Thirsk (8f gd), going down by a short head. He was getting 7lbs from the winner and he is 1lb better off with him today. The Appleby horse is 7/2 and Positive Impact is as big as 12/1. On that form he looks hugely overpriced and Jamie Spencer is a very interesting booking on this prominent racer. At odds of 12/1, Positive Impact looks worth chancing e/w in an open race.
Saturday Newmarket July Festival Tips: Positive Impact e/w @ 12/1
3.00 Ascot – Betfred Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
Venturous is a horse that owes us nothing having won for us at York at 40s last season. He is a tricky sort that can play up in the stalls but when he gets a proper pace to aim at, he is a quality horse. His last win came in a conditions race at Newcastle where he beat Judicial and his next three runs were below par. However, he was only beaten 3L last time off 95 at Doncaster and he shaped as though he was returning to form.
Tom Queally rode for the first time that day and he seemed to get a good tune out of him. The stiffer 5f at Ascot should play to his strengths and on paper, this race looks like it will be run at a proper gallop with Mountain Peak, Corazon and Digital all potential early pace setters. It is a worry that he hasn’t produced his best on three previous visits to Ascot but the last one was in 2020 and he is a better horse now than he was back then. He is 1lb lower than he was for his last win and at odds of 20/1, Venturous is worth chancing e/w.
Saturday Ascot Tips: Venturous e/w @ 20/1 (7 Places W Hill) NB
3.15 Newmarket – Superlative Stakes (Group 2)
A bitterly disappointing turnout for this Juvenile G2. It is the only time there has been less than six runners since 2002. It is a competitive looking heat and the three unbeaten colts are at the head of the market. Lion Of War looked special at Newcastle last time and he could be the one to beat. I’m not backing him at 2/1 though and with just two places on offer, this is unfortunately another no bet race.
Saturday Newmarket July Festival Tips: No Bet
3.35 Ascot – Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2)
Another relatively small field with just seven runners but thankfully, a fair few bookies are paying three places. We backed Chindit in the Lockinge earlier this year and he got place money at 20s. He finished 3rd behind Real World and Baaeed, arguably the two best milers in Britain. He didn’t quite match that form behind those two over this C&D last time but he drops in class here and without his two old rivals to take him on, connections will be fancying their chances.
Modern News has come up short in Listed/G3 company the last twice. He hasn’t lost much caste in defeat and he only has a nose to find with My Oberon from last time out. The Haggas horse just prevailed in a thrilling finish but it is the horse that finished 3rd that interests me today. Neil Callan is riding out of his skin and he gets the leg up on Perotto again here.
Trained by Marcus Tregoning, this 107 rated son of New Bay often runs well without winning. His last triumph came over this C&D in last season’s Britannia where he scored by 0.5L off 99. Since then, he has been highly tried and he picked up Black Type at Salisbury last August. Callan rode him more aggressively last time and he only went down by 0.75L to My Oberon and Modern News. Those two horses are 7/2 and 5/1, Perotto is 11/1. At those odds and with three places on offer, he is the e/w pick.
Saturday Ascot Tips: Perotto e/w @ 11/1 (3 places)
3.50 Newmarket – Bunbury Cup Handicap (Class 2)
Will today finally be the day that Ropey Guest gets a big win? I certainly hope so. He is 16/1 for today’s race and with Callum Hutchinson claiming 5lbs, hopefully that will be enough to get his head in front. We backed him last time out at Ascot and he ran an absolutely massive race to finish 2nd off 92, beat just 1L. Now, with his jockey’s claim he is effectively off 87 and if he can repeat the form he showed at Ascot, it is hard to see him out of the frame.
In his younger days it seemed like this fella needed cut in the ground. His three runs this term have dispelled that worry and he was only beat 6L in this race last season off 98 on good to firm. Now, he is back for a repeat bid off 11lbs lower when his pilot’s claim is considered and if Hutchinson can avoid traffic issues, Ropey Guest has rock solid e/w claims at 16/1.
Saturday Newmarket July Festival Tips: Ropey Guest e/w @ 16/1 NAP (5 Places)
4.05 York – John Smith’s Cup Handicap (Class 2)
Another big field handicap, this time with 22 runners. 10.5f is the trip and it looks an extremely competitive contest. At huge odds, Chichester is an interesting contender for Keith Dalgleish and Callum Rodriguez. By Dansili, this horse is at his best on rattling quick ground. It took a while for the 5yo to get his first win, an 8f handicap at Newcastle off 77 on his first run back last season.
His next win came at Carlisle off 85 in June over a mile on quick ground. He then ran a blinder in an 8f handicap here off 88, staying on late to be beat less than 4L. However, he showed his true ability four starts later at Ayr when absolutely destroying the field by 6L off 88 (10f gd/fm). He was hiked up to 100 for that win and then he was handed another 4lbs for a fine 3rd in a Listed heat at Lingfield on his seasonal comeback.
This fella never featured in a G3 at Newmarket or in a 12f handicap at Ascot on his last two starts but the return to 10f is a big plus today. Another cause for optimism is the return of the visor for the first time this season. He wore one when winning at Ayr so hopefully it sparks him back to form. If it does, he will outrun his odds of 50/1.
Saturday York Tips: Chichester e/w @ 50/1 (6 places)
4.25 Newmarket – Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1)
The big one and what a renewal it is. Perfect Power, an impressive winner of the Commonwealth Games Cup last time, is the 3/1 fav for Fahey and Soumillon. He is in against some top quality older sprinters here and it will be fascinating to see if he is up to the task. Aussie sprinters are flavour of the month at the moment and they rely on Platinum Jubilee 3rd, Artorius.
He too is officially a 3yo but due to the fact he was born in the Southern Hemisphere, he carries 6lbs more than Perfect Power. He is a fast horse but he has only managed to win two races, both back in early 2021. Definite place claims but would I be wading in on a horse that is 2/12 in a race of this nature at just 5/1? No chance.
The two horses that finished in front of Artorius at Ascot were Naval Crown and Creative Force. The Godolphin pair re-oppose and they should both be bang there if they can run to that level again. Flaming Rib chased Perfect Power home in the Commonwealth and he is a reliable, consistent animal. He doesn’t know how to run a bad race and he represents a bit of e/w value at 11/1.
Shock On The Cards?
These big G1 sprints can often throw up shock results. Are any of the outsiders up to the task? We backed Double Or Bubble at Ascot in the Platinum Jubilee and while she finished 11th, she was only beaten 3L behind Naval Crown. She only has 1.25L to find with Happy Romance, 0.5L with Alcohol Free and 2.75L with the Australian raider on that Ascot form. When you consider it was her first ever run at the highest level and also in a field that big, it was a superb effort.
This track should play more to her strengths and I am hoping she learnt plenty from her last run. Chris Wall has reported that she came out of Ascot in fine fettle and that she worked nicely last week. The faster the ground, the better and Jack Mitchell knows her inside out. Winning is a big ask but this filly definitely has place claims. At odds of 66/1, Double Or Bubble is the e/w selection.
Saturday Newmarket July Festival Tips: Double Or Bubble e/w @ 66/1 (4 places)
4.40 York – City Walls Stakes (Listed)
Our old friend Mondammej takes a big drop in class here. A slow start cost him any chance at Newcastle last time. The form of his close 4th at Haydock would probably be enough to take this race but he is no banker to repeat it. On the plus side, he has run well at this track before and he has been placed on his two previous Listed starts. 14/1 is pretty tempting but I am going to go for a Hail Mary at much bigger odds.
Chocquinto is a horse I have had personal experience with. Just over a year ago at Down Royal he beat a horse I am involved with off just 62 (5f gd/fm). The form of that race has worked out ridiculously well. Arnhem was a neck back in 3rd off 74 and he was subsequently beat 0.75L in the Bold Lad. That’s Mad was back in 7th off 73 and he went on to win the Rockingham off 82 (Arnhem 3rd/Chocquinto 6th).
Quick Ground Crucial
The key to Chocquinto in my view is rattling fast ground. He has form figures off 131 on good to firm and it was quick at Cork when he ran the race of his life behind Geocentric in a Listed contest. He was beat 1.25L for the win by the 104 Lyons horse and he was conceding 4lbs to her (and 7lbs to the 99 rated runner up). The 109 rated Gustavus Weston was a half length behind.
The horse he beat at Tipperary the last time he won was Moss Tucker. He was racing off 89 that day (Chocquinto off 70) and he won two of his next three starts and is now rated 98. That last win came in a conditions race at Tipperary and he had our selection 6L behind but crucially, the ground was soft. York should suit him well, the ground looks perfect and Hilary McLoughlin has won with two of her last three runners. At odds of 80/1, hopefully Chocquinto can improve again and sneak some more black type.
