Saturday Newmarket and York Racing Tips Dave Stevos
Saturday Newmarket and York Racing Tips
We had a pretty decent day on Friday but it could have been so much better. Dusty Foley was poor on Jouska and she should have placed. He wasn’t great on Magical Lagoon either. Albion Square ran well but he just faded late on. Fast Attack won for us at 16s, Farhan placed at 18s and Alexander James drifted from 50s to 80s and also placed. Let’s hope for more of the same tomorrow. Check out Dave Stevos’ Saturday Newmarket and York racing tips below.
1.45 Newmarket – Zetland Stakes (Group 3)
After a nice sunny day at Newmarket on Friday the ground will be close to good now. Only those horses that need it soft will be inconvenienced and there will be no excuses for the rest of them. It is a tricky opener from a betting perspective and Godolphin hold a strong hand. Buick prefers Hafit, a Listed runner up last time who won his maiden here over 7f. Doyle rides 6L Novice winner Goldspur. That win came on soft, so perhaps the drying conditions persuaded Buick to stay on Hafit.
The next two in the betting are Irish raiders Bluegrass and Unconquerable. Aidan O’Brien trains the former and Ryan Moore rides. He is impeccably bred, out of a superb sprinter in Quiet Reflection. Connections will be banking on her sire Galileo injecting the required stamina for this 10f trip. Donnacha trains Unconquerable and he is more exposed than some of these. This trip might suit and he’ll have the assistance of Frankie in the saddle.
Trip Could Suit The Duke
The winner will probably come from the top four in the market but one that could sneak into the money at a price is Dukebox. Trained by Richard Hannon, this fella won his first two starts at Kempton (5f) and Newbury (6f gd/sft). The Newbury form looks solid and things just didn’t go to plan when he stepped into G2 company on his next outing at the Curragh (6f gd).
Last time out at Haydock (8f gd/fm) it was better. He got a bit outpaced by Triple Time and Hafit 3f out but he kept on nicely in the last furlong and he was only 3L behind Hafit at the finish. His New Approach dam stayed 10f and on the evidence of his last effort, this distance may well suit him. He is rated 96 so he doesn’t need to improve a huge amount to get involved on the figures (Hafit 103, Unconquerable 100) and at odds of 22/1 he is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.
Saturday Newmarket and York Tip: Dukebox e/w @ 22/1
2.02 York – Rockingham Stakes (Listed)
A decent sized field of 14 young sprinters will line up in this 6f Listed heat. Conditions were tough at York on Friday and there will still be some cut in the ground today. Quite a few of these are proven on easy ground but the one I like at a decent each way price is fast ground debut winner Sandbeck. Owned and bred by David Armstrong, this daughter of Ardad is from a family that I have a lot of time for. His dam is unraced but she is a half sister to Pendleton (top rating 100) and Holmeswood (top rating 97).
Both of those horses handled an ease in the ground. Interestingly, both of them have won at York. Sandbeck was sent off at 18/1 on debut but she showed a willing attitude to get up late and deny the long time leader. Yes, that horse is only rated 71 but he had the benefit of three previous outings. Given that it was Sandbeck’s first ever run, the performance probably deserves to be marked up a bit.
Judging from her dam’s pedigree, she should be even better suited by today’s ground. Her sire Ardad has a 25% strike rate with his runners on soft ground and given that this filly has already won on good to firm, she won’t mind if the ground does dry out a bit. Local trainer Tim Fitzgerald has booked Silvestre De Sousa for the ride. He is 1/2 for the yard and 1/6 (3 top 4s) for the owner. She’ll need to improve a fair bit to figure here but she is proven at 6f already. Hopefully she can stay on late to nick some black type at odds of 33/1.
Saturday Newmarket and York Tip: Sandbeck e/w @ 33/1 (4 Places)
2.20 Newmarket – Autumn Stakes (Group 3)
The one to beat in this G3 is Coroebus for Buick, Appleby and Godolphin. The Boys in blue had a nice double on Friday with Al Suhail and Siskany and this fella looks to hold outstanding claims. A winner here on debut, he found just Royal Patronage too good last time out (8f gd/fm). It looked like he had that race wrapped up 1f out but he tired late on and Royal Patronage just got up in the dying strides. I don’t think his stamina gave out, I just think Buick got his timing wrong. He certainly won’t be hitting the front as soon this afternoon. He deserves to be odds on but I don’t think he is bulletproof.
A few of his rivals have interesting profiles. Imperial Fighter is held on a line through Royal Patronage but he should be better suited by a mile. Hopefully Oisin Murphy stays off the sauce on Friday and is able to take the ride. United Nations was a rare first time out winner for Aidan O’Brien at Naas (7f gd). The son of Galileo made all and on pedigree another furlong shouldn’t pose any problems.
Alflaila Overpriced
The one that could be overpriced in this contest is Alflaila. This son of Dark Angel is a model of consistency. He has yet to run a bad race and he was a close 4th in a Listed heat last time. Owen Burrows’ charge has a couple of pieces of form that make him of interest here. That Listed run worked out very well as the winner went on to finish 2nd in a G1 at Longchamp on Arc weekend. Ribhi was 5th and he took a class 2 conditions race on his next outing.
Alflaila was 1.5L behind Harrow in a strong Nursery at York on his penultimate start. The winner was in off 85 and Alflaila was conceding 3lbs to him. Harrow won the big sales race at Donny next time and is now rated 101 after finishing 3rd in a G3. Alflaila has more experience than the market leaders and he should be suited by a mile. He is more than entitled to his place in this field and he could nick a place at odds of 22/1.
Saturday Newmarket and York Tip: Alflaila e/w @ 22/1
2.37 York – Coral Handicap (Class 2)
Next up on ITV is this 10.5f Class 2 handicap and eleven go to post. It looks a wide open heat and a case could be made for plenty. We backed Pythagoras earlier this season when he ran poorly at Ascot. He ran no sort of race and after another poor effort at Sandown, he was given a couple of months off. Richard Fahey’s charge returned to action at Doncaster four weeks ago. He was always in rear and you would think he should come on for that run.
He now steps back up to 10f, the distance he shaped so well at earlier this season behind Hurricane Lane and Wirko. The soft ground will suit the son of Zoffany and the handicapper has given him a chance by dropping him to 96. Paul Hanagan, on board for his Listed win at Pontefract last season, returns to the plate. He teamed up with Fahey for a nice winner at York on Friday. Everything looks right for Pythagoras today and at odds of 16/1, hopefully he bounces back to his best.
Saturday Newmarket and York Tip: Pythagoras e/w @ 16/1
2.55 Newmarket – Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1)
The Dewhurst is always a fascinating race and this renewal is no different. The unbeaten Native Trail is odds on to make it 4/4. He lowered the colours of Point Lonsdale in emphatic fashion at the Curragh last time (7f gd). His maiden win over Royal Patronage has been franked and he also landed a G2 at Newmarket on the July course. He is the real deal and it’ll take a special performance to beat him.
Straight Answer is also unbeaten after two runs. Ger Lyons’ son of Kodiac won a sift ground maiden at the Curragh (6f) and then he obliterated a decent field in a Listed heat at Fairyhouse (6f gd/fm). He has lots of potential but this is a whole lot harder. Glounthane is the only other unbeaten horse in this race. He has had just one run and it was a winning one at the Curragh. Another son of Kodiac, he beat Castle Star by a head and the Stack horse has gone on to be placed in G1 company. That win was 175 days ago though and his long absence is a worry.
Dhabab Has E/w Claims
I am very surprised to see Dhabab priced up at as big as 20/1. He hasn’t done much wrong in his four starts so far. He won on debut at Leicester and then he ran a cracker in the Coventry behind Berkshire Shadow. John Gosden’s inmate was denied a clear run and he was arguably an unlucky loser. His next start came here on the July course in the G2 won by Native Trail (7f gd/fm). He was ridden too aggressively by Frankie that day. However, he still finished just 1.5L behind the winner.
Things didn’t go to plan in a G2 last time at Newbury and that is probably the reason he is such a big price. However, the drop back to 6f probably wasn’t in his favour. If he was coming into this race on the back of his 3rd behind Native Trail, he wouldn’t be 18/1. In my opinion he has some of the best form and if Frankie can get him settled and produce him late on, he could go close. At odds of 18/1, Dhabab is the each way selection.
Saturday Newmarket and York Tip: Dhabab e/w @ 18/1
3.15 York – Coral Sprint Trophy (Class 2)
A big 22 runner sprint is the penultimate live race of the day from York, a perfect curtain raiser for the Cesarewitch. Only one winner since 2013 has been drawn higher than stall 9 and when the ground is soft, a low draw is a positive. The gallant Gulliver has won this race for the last two years. In 2019 he scored off 100 from stall 5, last year he won off 102 from stall 6. O’Meara has got him back for the hat-trick bid off the same mark he won it off last season. However, this time, the draw gods have not been kind. Gulliver is drawn in stall 21 so if he does win, it’ll be a massive performance.
The one I’ll be backing from a lovely draw in stall 4 is Snazzy Jazzy for Lawrence Mullaney and Phil Dennis. This horse was a very useful performer for Clive Cox. A six time winner, he moved to Mullaney at the start of this season and he has shown just glimpses of his previous form. However, his two best efforts for his new connections came at this track and the handicapper has dropped him to an extremely dangerous mark.
Well Treated
Snazzy is in off a mark of 96 today. Less than 3 months ago he was beat just 3L in a hot handicap at York over 5.5f off 101. He also shaped very well when beat the same distance by Tis Marvellous over 5f at Ascot (gd/sft) previously. In July he ran a cracker in a Listed contest over 5f at this track when he finished a good 4th behind subsequent G1 winner Winter Power.
Last time at Ascot he was slowly away over 5f and he never landed a blow. However, I think he can be forgiven that run. He will be much more suited by 6f on soft on the Knavesmire. If he can reproduce the form of those two recent course runs, or that Ascot effort behind Tis Marvellous, this horse is more than capable of going very close today. At odds of 33/1, Snazzy Jazzy looks a cracking e/w bet.
Saturday Newmarket and York Tip: Snazzy Jazzy e/w @ 33/1 NB (6 Places)
3.35 Newmarket – Cesarewitch Handicap (Class 2)
Last but not least, we have the 2021 Cesarewitch Handicap. This 18f marathon is a race I like and last year we went close with Takarengo at 66/1. Tom Mullins’ son of Battle Of Marengo just got mown down late on by Great White Shark on the soft ground and I think he’ll be better suited by the underhoof conditions this time. He was kept busy over timber after that excellent run but he isn’t as good over hurdles as he is on the flat. After a poor run at Punchestown in April he was turned out for a few months and he has had two prep runs for his repeat bid in this.
On his return to action he landed a nice little handicap at Clonmel off 84 (16.5f gd). It looked as though he needed every inch of the trip and the extra couple of furlongs here won’t worry him, especially on nice ground. Mullins kept him ticking over with an outing over 12f at the Curragh 2 weeks ago. He was well beat but as I said on the day, he was unlikely to be trying with this race looming on the horizon.
That means he is in off 88 today, just 7lbs higher than he was last year. John Egan is back on board again and he is drawn high, which isn’t a disadvantage. This horse will be trying for his life today and while it might seem crazy to say this about a horse with so many runs, he is unexposed at 16f plus trips on the flat, especially on decent ground. I think 33/1 is a huge price and with extra places on offer, Takarengo is the e/w NAP of the day.
