Saturday Night European Championship Finals Tips

Saturday’s afternoon session went pretty well for James Punt’s followers. Joe Cullen -3.5 (2.10) and Danny Noppert (2.00) both obliged with wins. Hopefully we are in for more of the same tonight. Check out James Punt’s Saturday Night European Championship tips below.

Nathan Aspinall vs. Damon Heta

Heta won their only previous match, a 6-3 result in a player’s championship last November.

A win is a win and that is about all you can say about Aspinall’s match against Merv King. He won 6-4 but only averaged 90.67 and he has won five of his last ten. He has been playing better than that recently and hopefully The Asp ups his game this evening.

Damon Heta beat Gabriel Clemens 6-3 with a decent display and a 94.1 average. The Heat has only won four of his last ten matches, so he is low on confidence.

In terms of playing best of 19 leg matches on TV, Aspinall has played 20 and won 0, Heta played 5 and won 2. More experience for Aspinall, but nothing outstanding.

The betting sees Aspinall the 1.80 favourite with Heta 2.15. It is hard to argue with those and it isn’t an easy match to call.

Both players are decent maximum hitters, Heta the better of the two over the season but in three of Aspinall last five matches he has been hitting 180’s at a rate of one very two legs. Heta’s seasonal average is one every three legs and with the bookies reckoning that this match should stretch to around 17 legs, and I don’t disagree with that, we should see ten or more.

Saturday Night European Championship Tip: 1 point over 9.5 180’s @ 1.91 with SportingIndex

Gerwyn Price vs. Adam Gawlas

Both players are in good form, Price winning nine of his last ten, Gawlas seven (at senior level). Price beat Edhouse 6-2 and averaged 104 last night and looked in ominously good nick. Gawlas averaged 88.7 (his seasonal average) in a 6-4 win over Joe Murnan. He wasn’t shy of getting the crowd going and he seems to be growing in confidence on the big stage.

There is a world of difference between the two in terms of experience. Price has played 60 first to ten leg format matches on TV and won an impressive 42, and the last ten in a row. Gawlas hasn’t played a single one. He has only played five televised singles matches and won one.

This would seem to be a case of not who wins, but by how much does Price win by. He is the 1.11 favourite to win, and he has to overcome a -5.5 leg handicap if you want to get him at odds against.

It is not a good betting match.

Michael van Gerwen vs. James Wade

This will be their 60th meeting and to date MVG has won 41, Wade 17 and one match drawn. They have twice this year both in the Premier League with one win each. In televised first to ten format matches, MVG leads 7-2.

 Van Gerwen has won eight of his last ten matches and had a ton plus average in his last four non double in format matches. He is bang in form scoring wise.

James Wade has won six of his last ten including an underwhelming 6-5 win over Adam Neale-Smith last night. His seasonal average is 95.8 compared to 98.8 for MVG. The problem for Wade is that he has been playing below his seasonal average recently, MVG above. Wade often wins games because of his excellent finishing but Van Gerwen isn’t that far off Wade in that department.

It looks likely that Van Gerwen will have the fire power to beat James Wade. It would seem Wades best chance is to try and stick with him and try and put some pressure on Van Gerwen, then the Dutchman might crack as has become a bit of a problem for him this year. That will be easier said than done.

Van Gerwen is the 1.36 favourite, too short these days, but Wade hasn’t been playing well enough to make 3.40 about Wade attractive.

MVG should be able to cover the handicap and win with something in hand.

Saturday Night European Championship Tip: 1 point Van Gerwen to win -2.5 legs @ 1.83 with Ladbrokes, Betfair, SportingIndex

Saturday Night European Championship Tip: 0.5 point Van Gerwen to win 10-6 @ 7.50 with SpreadEx, Unibet

Mensur Suljovic vs. Florian Hempel

Hempel dumped out our number 1 selection Peter Wright in the first round. Snakebite was messing about, changing his darts mid leg, lacked confidence and Hempel was able take advantage and won 6-3, despite averaging just 86.9.

This match has been left to be the finale of the day, with a full house in full voice and all for Suljovic. They have not met before, but their stats for the last 12 months are not wildly different. Suljovic averages 94.1, Hempel 90.0 and they are both checking out at 38%.

Suljovic’s form since his return after four months out has been inconsistent. Excellent at times, especially at the world cup, with a couple of big ton plus averages, but there have also been some poor performances. He has played 12 singles matches without the double in format, won eight and had six sub 91 averages. It is very hard to say what we will get tonight. Another low scoring match and Hempel is in with a chance.

Cocky

The German is a bit cocky, and he’ll take any opportunities he gets. If he can cope with a large hostile crowd, and that will be new to him, and raise his game a bit, an upset is not out of the question. He wasn’t expected to beat Peter Wright and this is just a bonus for him, there is very little pressure on him.

Suljovic has much more experience, playing 37 best of 19 matches on TV and winning 24. A large % of his defeats came against MVG. Hempel has not played any first to ten matches, has only played once on TV and only eight matches on a stage. It could be that the occasion and the crowd get to Hempel. Suljovic could just grind him down. The one worry for Suljovic, well another one after inconsistency, is his poor record in this event. He has only won two of five second round matches.

No Certainty

Suljovic really should win but he is no stick on. It is a big ask to think that Hempel can beat Suljovic and the crowd, in a new format and on the unfamiliar stage surroundings. Will we get a surprise, or a drubbing?

Suljovic is the 1.50 favourite, Hempel 2.75. That seems very short odds for Hempel. He is promising, he’s had a couple of ton plus averages in his last 13 matches, but also five sub 90’s.

I will go with Suljovic’s experience being enough here. A bit like Joe Cullen only averaging 89 against Borland and winning 10-5 earlier.

Saturday Night European Championship Tip: 1 point Suljovic to win -2.5 legs @ 2.00 with Betfair, Paddy Power

-JamesPunt