Saturday Racing ITV Tips and Preview by Dave Stevos
Saturday Racing ITV Tips at Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster
Last weekend saw us turn a small profit thanks to a couple of all-weather winners. Lord Riddiford (advised e/w 15/2) and Forest Of Dean (advised win at 4/1) both obliged but the rest of our selections ran poorly. Margaret’s Legacy found the going too quick and Friends Don’t Ask was outclassed in the Eider. Mellow Ben forced an absolutely furious early pace for Richard Johnson. If a young claimer set those fractions he would have been slated for the ride. Mackenberg drifted in the betting and while he didn’t place, he actually ran a decent race. We have high class action at Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster live on ITV on Saturday. Check out Dave Stevos’ preview and free Saturday Racing ITV Tips below.
1.15 Newbury: Veterans’ Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Some old favourites will battle it out for glory in this 26f Veterans’ Handicap Chase. The ground is good at Newbury and one horse that should relish the conditions is Valadom for Richard Hobson and Paul O’Brien. This horse went over 3 years without a win between 2016 and 2020. However, he has come back to form in the last twelve months. He dotted up in a handicap chase at Catterick in January 2020 (25f sft) and he then followed that with an excellent 2nd behind Benny’s Secret at Musselburgh (22f gd/sft).
Valadom made his seasonal bow this term in France when the ground was far too soft for him. On his return to action in the UK he dotted up in a 20f handicap chase at Newcastle on good ground off 124. He is in off 128 today and while this is undoubtedly a tougher race, he did manage to win a class 2 handicap off 6lb higher in his younger days. 5 of his 6 wins have come on ground with good in the description so the conditions today will be right up his street. He ran well on his only previous visit to Newbury too. At odds of 11/1 Valadom is the each way selection.
Saturday Racing ITV Tips: Valadom e/w @ 11/1 (4 Places W Hill)
Saturday Racing ITV Tips – 1.30 Kelso: Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
The ground is good to soft on the hurdles track at Kelso for this 18f Grade 2 Novice. My Drogo heads the market after he made it 2/2 over timber in an Ascot Grade 2 last time (15.5f sft). The horse he beat into 3rd that day, Soaring Glory, went on to win the Betfair Hurdle so it looks extremely strong form. He does have to carry a penalty for that win though and this looks an equally deep race.
I was impressed by Bareback Jack at Musselburgh (15.5f sft). I really rate the horse he beat, Tommy’s Oscar, who I fancy to run big in the Morebattle. He also had the 144 rated Third Time Lucki 5L behind him in 4th. He made all last time but he doesn’t have to lead. So, if Lucky One tears off in front it shouldn’t inconvenience him too much. The Paul Nicholls horse dotted up last time on bottomless ground. It remains to be seen if he can replicate that in this stronger race on much nicer ground. At odds of 11/2 Bareback Jack appeals most and a small win bet is advised.
Saturday Racing ITV Tips: Bareback Jack win @ 11/2
1.50 Newbury: Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
A field of 14 horses will go to post in this very competitive handicap chase. In the hope that the return to Newbury sparks him back to top form, I think Gala Ball is worth taking a chance on. Philip Hobbs trains this 11yo son of Flemensfirth and he loves it around here. He ran a massive race on his seasonal bow over C&D back in November to finish 2nd off 147. Gala Ball was only a couple of lengths behind Clondaw Castle and he subsequently won again off 3lb higher.
Philip Hobbs’ charge races off a mark of 144 today, 3lb lower than he was in October. He failed to reproduce that level of form on his next two outings at Wincanton but those runs were likely designed to keep him ticking over for a tilt at this big pot. Gala Ball was a fine 2nd in this race in 2019 off 141 and he goes particularly well for Tom O’Brien. Before pulling up under him last time he had form figures of 1211126F with O’Brien in the saddle. His form figures at Newbury are equally impressive (20122221) and at odds of 18/1 he is the e/w selection.
Saturday Racing ITV Tips: Gala Ball e/w @ 18/1 (5 Places)
2.05 Kelso: Bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
The one that looks a shade overpriced now back on nice ground is Weather Front. Trained by Iain Jardine, this 8yo son of Stormy Atlantic has been running well this season. He went really close on good ground off 129 over C&D back in September and he followed that up with a decent effort off 131 when beat just 5L at Cheltenham. He wasn’t disgraced on unsuitable ground when 5th off the same mark there on his next run. There wasn’t much wrong with his 4th at Musselburgh on his last hurdle start and he shaped nicely enough on the all-weather at Newcastle last time out.
It could be argued that the handicapper has this fella in his grasp but I think he is capable of going close off his current rating. He has finished in the first two on five of his ten runs over timber and this will be the first time he has had his optimum conditions since those good efforts over C&D and at Cheltenham. Iain Jardine hasn’t had a winner for a while but he has had a few go close in the past two weeks so his horses are not terribly out of form. With 4 places on offer, Weather Front is well worth chancing e/w at odds of 14/1.
Saturday Racing ITV Tips: Weather Front e/w @ 14/1 NB (4 Places Betfair)
2.20 Doncaster: Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed)
The one that comes into this race under the radar somewhat is Dragon Bones for Ian Williams and Robbie Dunne. This mare mustn’t show much at home because she has gone off at huge odds on both starts so far. However, the track seemingly brings out the best in her because she won a very decent Worcester bumper (gd/sft) on her debut at 50/1 and she was far from disgraced behind Eileendover on her return to action at Market Rasen when 4th, beat 13L on very testing ground.
She was only 5L behind Grangee last time out and that mare won a Grade 2 next time. The form of her debut win worked out well too. The runner up Lord Baddesley won a Novice hurdle at the start of this season and is now rated 121. Midnight River was 2L back in 3rd and she is now rated 141. Israel Champ was 6th, a subsequent Listed winner. The highest rated in this race is just 124 so if Dragon Bones can repeat the level of form she showed in her two bumper runs on her hurdling debut she won’t be too far away. 20/1 looks a huge price and she is the each way pick.
Saturday Racing ITV Tips: Dragon Bones e/w @ 20/1
2.40 Kelso: Bet365 Premier Chase (Listed)
This is another Listed heat and a field of 6 will fight it out for black type over a trip of 23.5f. The field may be small but there are some very classy individuals in it. A neck separated Two For Gold and Aso last time at Warwick (20f sft) and the Venetia Williams horse is now better off at the weights with that rival. However, he has yet to win over this far and Kim Bailey’s charge could have the edge over him again. Cloth Cap hosed up last time at Newbury (26f gd) and he will appreciate the conditions. If he repeats that run he won’t be far away.
Lake View Lad and Definitly Red are both classy operators on their day too. The former landed a Grade 2 at Aintree on his penultimate start but this race is most likely a stepping stone towards the Grand National. Definitly Red has yet to hit form this season but like Lake View Lad, his main target is the National at Aintree. The bookies haven’t taken any chances pricing up this race and it makes no appeal as a betting heat. I’ll be sitting it out.
Saturday Racing ITV Tips: No Bet
2.55 Doncaster: Handicap Chase (Class 2)
There has been another disappointing turnout for this 16.5f handicap chase with just 7 horses going to post. Riko Boy is the market leader but his last two good runs came on soft ground and today’s conditions may not be too his liking. He was well beat on his previous runs on good or better and he could be vulnerable. Ballywood is a former C&D winner and he will enjoy the underfoot conditions. He is having his second run back from a wind-op and he is feasibly handicapped.
One that could go well at double figure odds is Return Ticket. Trained by the shrewd Rebecca Menzies yard, this 9yo has a superb record over fences. In 10 chase starts he has only finished out of the first three twice and both of those efforts came on soft. He was very impressive when winning off 134 at Musselburgh back in November, his second chase win of the season.
20f was too far for him on his last chase start and the ground was soft. Yes, he ran poorly at Newcastle on the all-weather but that test and the surface didn’t suit him. 16f is his best trip over fences and I think there could be more to come from this son of Getaway back on good ground. At odds of 10/1, Return Ticket is the each way selection.
Saturday Racing ITV Tips: Return Ticket e/w @ 10/1
3.15 Kelso: Morebattle Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
We backed Tommy’s Oscar e/w last time out and he ran a blinder to finish 2nd. I think he finished with plenty left in the tank and in hindsight, it looks like it was a prep run for a bigger race. His owner had mentioned the Morebattle as a potential target for the season and he arrives here off a lovely mark of just 133. I said before his last race that I believed this fella was a mid-140s horse and his run did nothing to diminish my opinion of him.
Danny McMenamin was easy enough on him in the closing stages the last day and I don’t think he got to anywhere near the bottom of him. You can be sure that he will be doing his very best to win today. The Hamiltons won this race with the 139 rated Runswick Royal back in 2014 and he went on to run a cracker in a Grade 1 at Aintree. Don’t be surprised if Tommy’s Oscar follows a similar route. He is the each way NAP of the day at odds of 10/1.
Saturday Racing ITV Tips: Tommy’s Oscar e/w @ 10/1 NAP
3.30 Doncaster: Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (Class 2)
With trip, track and ground to suit I am taking a punt on Special Prep in this 26f handicap. Trained by Pauline Robson, this son of Brian Boru is 1/1 at Doncaster. He won a handicap chase at today’s trip by 12L off 116 in January 2019 and he followed that up with another victory at Newcastle off a mark of 128 two months later. Unfortunately, things haven’t quite gone to plan for the 9yo since. He burst a blood vessel on his final start of the 2019 season at Perth and since then he has had just four runs, with three of those coming in Jumpers’ Bumpers at Newcastle.
He is now rated 129, just 1lb higher than when he hosed up in that chase at Newcastle. Jack Tudor’s mount shaped as though he was returning to some sort of form when not beat that far at Newcastle on the flat early last month. It looks to me like they have been preparing him for a crack at this race and they have got him here off a very nice mark. Jack Tudor takes off another 3lbs and at odds of 11/1 with 3 places on offer, Special Prep can hopefully finish the day off on a high note for us.
