Saturday Racing Tips For Newbury and Leopardstown
Saturday Racing Tips and Preview by Dave Stevos
On an extremely busy day on Friday we didn’t fare too badly. Coded Message won for us at 10/1 while Rouge Vif and Solomn Grundy also picked up place money at decent odds, as did The Two Amigos. However, Carnspindle and Bigmartre never figured while Lord Bryan also disappointed. Virginia Chick probably didn’t stay, while Simply Ned missed out on place money in 4th. The action comes from Leopardstown again on Saturday and ITV4 are also showing a few live races from Newbury. Check out Dave Stevos’ Saturday racing tips below…
Saturday Racing Tips: 1.25 Leopardstown – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
The first live race on RTE2 on Saturday is this tricky looking 10 runner Beginners’ Chase. A few pretty useful sorts will take each other on here, including the dual Grade 1 placed hurdler Allaho. He was 3rd behind Minella Indo at Cheltenham (beat 9L) and he closed the gap to that horse 2L at Punchestown. That is the best form on offer in this race, the problem is it all came at 3 miles and this trip may be a bit sharp for him.
At odds of 4/1 Allaho could be worth taking on and Canardier will definitely be suited by this trip. He has placed handicap festival form at this distance and his sole win over hurdles came over 21f at Cheltenham. Canardier was in the process of running a huge race on his chase debut at Navan when falling 2 out. Keith Donoghue had a double handful and he just knuckled on landing after jumping the fence. His jumping up to that point was fine and he is worth giving another chance to at 4/1.
SATURDAY RACING TIPS RTE2 LEOPARDSTOWN: CANARDIER WIN @ 4/1 NAP
Saturday Racing Tips: 1.50 Newbury – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
A field of 12 will go to post for this 20.5f handicap hurdle and the ground at Newbury is soft. One that looks potentially very well handicapped if returning to form is Limited Reserve. This 7yo son of Court Cave is without a win for almost 3 years. In his defence, he spent almost 18 months on the side lines but since his return he has not rediscovered his old spark. However, he has raced mainly on decent ground and conditions on Saturday will be more to his liking.
His last two wins came on heavy ground off 125 and 133 and he is racing off 127 here. Jack Tudor, fresh from his Welsh Grand National success for this owner/trainer combo takes the ride. He claims another 7lb off Limited Reserve’s back so he is effectively running off just 120. He was well beaten last time at Hereford, but just like his comeback run he may just have needed it. If he is fully fit now he is certainly handicapped to run a big race with ground and trip to suit. At odds of 25/1 Limited Reserve is worth chancing each way.
ITV4 RACING TIPS NEWBURY: LIMITED RESERVE E/W @ 25/1 NB
RTE2 Racing: 2.00 Leopardstown – Frank Ward Memorial Hurdle (Grade 1)
Only 7 will line up at the start for this 3 mile Grade 1 hurdle and Bacardys is the one to beat on current form. Apples Jade has to bounce back from a string of below par efforts and the jury is out on whether she is the same mare this season. Penhill will enjoy stepping back up to 3 miles, while the old boy Unowhatimeanharry will fancy his chances of hitting the frame too.
The exasperating Killultagh Vic is kept over hurdles, a wise move given his jumping issues. He has the ability to win a race like this, his concentration lets him down though. Dommage Pour Toi reverts from chasing and this trip could suit him. His trainer is in great form too but it is hard to see him beating the leading lights in this. With just 7 runners I think this is a race best watched and I won’t be having a bet.
RTE2 RACING TIPS LEOPARDSTOWN: NO BET
Racing Preview: 2.25pm Newbury – Handicap Chase (Class 3)
I think it’s fair to say that you won’t see many weaker races than this live on ITV4 on a Saturday. Ten will go to post for this 26f handicap chase and both stamina and an affinity for soft ground will be imperative. I am going to take a chance on one at big odds here for very small stakes. Goodnight Charlie is a temperamental but talented mare who has bombed out on both runs so far this term. She only knows one way and that is to go hard from the front early. Trained by Caroline Fryer, this daughter of Midnight Legend gets on very well with Bridget Andrews.
Andrews has been on board for her 5 of her 6 wins under rules and she is back in the plate today. She got the fractions right the last time she rode, back in April at Cheltenham when Goodnight Charlie won by 6L (26f gd). This mare has won twice on soft so conditions will be fine, it all just depends whether she is on a going day. If she is in the mood she could make all of these go and she is a very tentative e/w pick at odds of 25/1.
ITV4 RACING TIPS NEWBURY: GOODNIGHT CHARLIE E/W @ 25/1
Saturday Racing Tips: 2.35 Leopardstown – Handicap Hurdle (80-116)
A massive field of 28 will go to post for this trappy 20.5f handicap hurdle and it is wide open. One that could go well at a price is last year’s 4th Youngnedofthehill. He races off a mark of 94, 4lb lower than he was last season. He was in good form at Ballinrobe in August and September, stringing three placed efforts together on yielding, good and soft ground.
The son of King’s Theatre’s only win came on good ground, but he handles soft and 20f is probably his best trip nowadays. He stayed on well for 2nd on his last start at Ballinrobe on soft (18.5f), shaping as though another 1.5f would suit. JJ Slevin rides for the first time and he will need to produce this strong traveller late. With 6 places available, Youngnedofthehill is the each way pick at odds of 25/1.
SATURDAY RACING TIPS LEOPARDSTOWN: YOUNGNEDOFTHEHILL E/W @ 25/1 (6 PLACES)
ITV4 Racing: 3.00PM Newbury – Challow Hurdle (Grade 1)
Thyme Hill is a warm order for this 20.5f Grade 1 and he looks a worthy odds on favourite. His form is rock solid and he is the top rated for a reason. He has already scored in a pair of Grade 2s over hurdles and he was placed in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March. He jumps well, he has the champion jockey on board and he is the one to beat.
The unknown quantity in this race is Éclair Surf. A French bred son of Califet, he was snapped up for £140k after his easy P2P win. It was more of the same on his rules debut at Exeter last month on his rules debut (21.5f sft). He made all for a comfortable 3L win, never looking in danger. Adam Wedge only gave him two flicks with the whip and he jumped really nicely throughout the race. If the market leader fluffs his lines this gelding could be the one to benefit. At odds of 18/1 he looks worth a small each way bet.
ITV4 RACING TIPS: ECLAIR SURF E/W @ 18/1
RTE2 Racing Preview: 3.10pm Leopardstown – Savills Chase (Grade 1)
This year’s Savills chase looks an absolute belter. Nine will go to post and it is a field that oozes class and quality. Kemboy is the market leader for his new owners on his return to action. Last year’s winner will be looking to repeat the trick and then make amends for his unseat in the Gold Cup. The way he won at Aintree and Punchestown subsequently cemented his place as one of the top chasers and he has won all 6 of his last completed starts. The handicapper reckons he is 8lb better than his closest rivals and it is hard to disagree.
The one nagging worry is that this is his first run of the season. He had a pipe opener last year before his win and he needed a run on his return in 2018. Presenting Percy’s legion of fans will be hoping he makes race fitness count. He only made the track twice last term but this year’s preparations have gone smoother. He ran a nice race on his return over an inadequate trip when 3rd to Min at Punchestown last time. The ground looks ideal, as does the trip, and if he is going to deliver the performance his supporters believe him to be capable of, today could be the day.
Road Entitled To Respect
Road To Respect is the main hope for Gigginstown and he won this race in 2017. He was 3rd to Kemboy last season and he had a perfect prep run at Down Royal. The son of Gamut beat Clan Des Obeaux easily by 5L and that form looks half decent now! In five starts at Leopardstown he has never finished out of the first three and he looks sure to go well. However, the suspicion remains that he may need a few to misfire to get his head in front.
Monalee was runner up behind Kemboy in this last season, a short head in front of Road To Respect. This son of Milan has come up short repeatedly at this level over 3 miles but he does have a Grade 1 win over 21f at this track. He was desperately disappointing on his return at Clonmel though, and that made it two poor runs in a row. Odds of around 16/1 look about right for this fella, though his yard is flying and he has the ability to get into the money if he is at his very best.
Jett Unexposed At The Trip
At absolutely monstrous odds I think Jett could surprise with a good run. Discounted by the bookies at odds of 50/1, he is a better horse than that price suggests. Up until October of this year, only one of his 25 chase starts came at 3 miles and he fell pretty early on in the Paddy Power Chase in 2018. After a below par run on his return over 20f at Gowran, Jessie Harrington stepped him back up in trip in a Grade 3 at Punchestown (25f yld).
Jett looked like he relished the new distance and got up in the dying strides to score by a head. He beat Alpha Des Obeaux that day, conceding 7lbs to him. He is rated 159 so it was a seriously solid effort. Jett again caught the eye back down to 20f last time, faring best of the rest behind Douvan at Clonmel. He stayed on well for 2nd and finished 8L ahead of Monalee in 3rd. I can see him confirming that form over 3 miles and he could sneak into the frame at 50/1. He is the each way suggestion in what should be a real Christmas cracker at Leopardstown.
LEOPARDSTOWN RACING TIPS: JETT E/W @ 50/1
Saturday Racing Tips: 3.35 Newbury – Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Another class 3 handicap chase closes the show on ITV4 on Saturday and 11 will go to post (22.5f). It isn’t the easiest of races to read, but at double figure odds Big Nasty could run well. A son of Black Sam Bellamy, this 6yo shaped nicely on his chase/handicap debut at Ayr in October. He dropped back in trip to 20f for that race after a couple of novice hurdle runs at 24f.
Racing off 119 at Ayr (20f sft), he found only one too good in Chateau Robin. He let the form down next time, but the 3rd home subsequently won a minor chase in Ireland and is 11/4 for a Novice in Limerick today at 3.25. Big Nasty got a 1lb hike for that Ayr effort to 120, but he has to race off 125 here. Even though he is 5lb wrong at the weights I think he could still run a nice race on ground he will enjoy. The extra couple of furlongs and stiffer track could suit Martin Keighley’s charge too. Odds of 20/1 look generous and he is the each way selection.
