Saturday Wetherby and Ascot Preview and Tips – DS
Saturday Wetherby and Ascot Tips
Last Sunday didn’t go to plan at either Aintree or Limerick. The only bright spot was that our 16/1 NAP Wave Of The Sea grabbed a place. The Navigator wasn’t suited by the run of the race as they went a crawl. Captain Tom Cat wasn’t good enough and Kaizer and Forza Milan were well beat. Hopefully things go better this weekend, Saturday Wetherby and Ascot tips are below.
1.30 Ascot – Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3)
A four runner field for the opening live race at Ascot. Will this be a recurring theme throughout the season? Hopefully not, but four of the eight races today have six runners or less so it isn’t ideal for each way players like ourselves. Goshen heads the market for this race for the Moores. The enigmatic son of Authorized is fit from the flat and if he puts it all together he should win.
Paul Nicholls’ horses are in good form and Samarrive should be thereabouts if fit for his seasonal return. Cobbler’s Dream wears the Croco Bay colours and like the Nicholls’ horse, he gets a big chunk of weight from the favourite. He ran a cracker at Cheltenham in March and he looks an interesting chasing prospect.
Gowel Road has the advantage of experience over fences but he didn’t jump well at Perth when well beaten. I’d like to see the Case horse win but with just the four runners, I haven’t got a strong enough opinion to justify a bet.
Saturday Wetherby and Ascot Tips: No Bet
1.50 Wetherby – Novices’ Hurdle (Class 3)
Another class 3 contest, this one a 19.5f novice hurdle. Joe Dadancer is the 11/4 fav for Pauling and Woods. The son of Califet fell at the final fence on his only P2P start at Lisronagh when he had an 11L lead. The winner of that race hasn’t been seen since and the 3rd was well beaten on his next start. The form doesn’t look great so this horse must be working well at home judging by how strong he is in the market.
However, I’d rather side with one at bigger odds that has already shown some decent form and for me, Hurricane Bay looks overpriced at odds of around 20/1. Lucy Wadham has a fine record with her runners at Wetherby. A return of 7 wins and 23 top 4s from 50 runners for a 60% frame hitting strike rate is not to be sneezed at and this horse has already produced a couple of decent runs under rules.
Best Effort
This son of Malinas had four runs in bumpers, finishing 5th twice and 3rd twice. His best effort came on his last start at Stratford (16f gd) in March when he was beat just 3L for the win by Lightfoot Lady. In that race he was up with the pace from the outset and it wasn’t that he didn’t stay, he just kept galloping at the one pace.
This gelding’s dam won over 20f over hurdles and on the evidence of that last run, this step up in trip should suit this horse. Bryony Frost has been on board for all four previous runs and she keeps the ride here.
The one worry is the form of Lucy Wadham. She hasn’t had many run to form yet this season but she’s only had four runners in the past two weeks so hopefully Hurricane Bay can end the quiet spell. On pedigree the forecast rain shouldn’t pose any problems so at odds of 20/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
Saturday Wetherby and Ascot Tips: Hurricane Bay e/w @ 20/1
2.05 Ascot – Bateaux London Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Ten are due to go to post for this 16f handicap hurdle. Six of the ten runners are priced up between 7/2 and 9/1 and that kind of illustrates just what type of a race this is. Trappy, open and one that would probably be best left alone in normal circumstances. However, with opportunities for betting few and far between today, I’m going to take a chance on Magistrato in the hope that first time up is the time to catch him.
On his first start of last season and first start for Paul Nicholls, this son of Kapgarde hacked up at Chepstow. It was a very promising display and he ran a cracker behind G1 winner Knight Salute on his next outing in a Cheltenham G2. However, he then ran three poor races at Chepstow (G1), Wincanton (hcap hurdle) and Ascot (hcap hurdle), the last one resulting in a 9.75L 6th off 120.
Wind Op
Magistrato had a wind op in the off season so that might explain why his form tailed off. He now sports a hood and tongue tie combo for the first time and he gets in off a mark of 119. If he can get back to the level of form he showed when beat 3L by Knight Salute, he is surely chucked in off that mark. His yard is on form, Lorcan Williams has 5 wins and 7 2nds from just 34 rides for this owner and at 14/1, an e/w interest on Magistrato is advised.
Saturday Wetherby and Ascot Tips: Magistrato e/w @ 14/1 NB
2.25 Wetherby – Mares’ Hurdle (Listed)
With the rain that is forecast in the morning, it’ll likely be soft for this Listed mares’ race. With only five runners, I’m afraid that this is another no bet race. Molly Ollys Wishes won’t mind the ground and she is versatile trip wise. She won this last year and she is 11/8 to repeat the dose. See The Sea would be of interest on quick ground but I’m happy to just watch on this occasion. No bet.
Saturday Wetherby and Ascot Tips: No Bet
2.40 Ascot – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Class 1)
Another relatively small field and very little e/w value to be found. Of the nine runners, seven are single figure odds and one of the outsiders ran at Wetherby on Friday so finding one at big odds that might go well is not an option. The Daly Tiger is the only horse at double figure odds but all his best recent form is on testing ground and he is probably best watched on his first start for his new trainer Laura Morgan.
Monsieur Lecoq is a cliff horse of mine. I can never seem to get him on the right day though and he is a very frustrating horse at times. At 17/2, Thyme White could hit the frame for Nicholls and Williams. Similarly to Magistrato, he is having his first run back of the season and he has form figures of 212 on his seasonal reappearances.
His jumping let him down on his last start at Aintree in April when he fell three out. Previous to that he was beat 2.75L over today’s C&D off 142 and he is in off the same rating today. Lorcan Williams has finished 2nd on three of his four rides for The Stewart Family, hopefully he can go one better on Thyme White today at odds of 17/2.
Saturday Wetherby and Ascot Tips: Thyme White e/w @ 17/2
3.00 Wetherby – Bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2)
Another disappointing turnout with just six declared for this Grade 2. It is a quality field and Sporting John is a warm order to make a winning return to action. The former Grade 1 winner over fences was last sighted hacking up in a Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick in January. With a rating of 154 he should be winning this but Philip Hobbs has had had just 1 winner from 19 runners in the last fortnight.
Indefatigable is an admirable mare and it is great to see her back for another season. Now a 9yo, Paul Webber’s stable star is fit from a spin on the flat and she won this race in great style last year. Proschema disappointed on his return at Chepstow and he chased Indefatigable home in this in 2021. They’ve obviously targeted this race again and he ought to be thereabouts. Neither of those horses would want much rain to fall though.
Thomas Darby will likely be targeted at the race he won at Newbury in November of last year so I’d imagine he’ll improve for this run. Threeunderthrufive could be a danger if repeating the form he showed when winning successive G2 Chases at Doncaster and Warwick last Winter. He is a good hurdler too and he can’t be discounted. However, the bookies aren’t taking any chances and this is another race best left alone.
Saturday Wetherby and Ascot Tips: No bet
3.15 Ascot – Bateaux London Gold Cup (Class 1)
A cracking contest. Annsam did us a couple of favours last season and he is a horse I hold in very high regard. He has a serious engine, as he illustrated when winning for us over this C&D last December. I’m not sure why he ran so poorly next time at Kempton when pulled up but he soon bounced back with two excellent runs over timber, a 3rd back at Kempton and then a win at Newbury. I think this 7yo son of Black Sam Bellamy has the potential to be a 150 horse over fences and if he is fit and well, a big run at 9/1 would come as no surprise.
At huge odds, Up The Straight is a horse that looks a tad overpriced on his first rules start at 24f. Richard Rowe’s charge is a solid horse on his day. He probably hasn’t yet fulfilled his maximum potential and he can be a bit quirky at times. However, he has loads of ability and today he has a race fitness edge on a good number of his rivals.
Respectable Return
On his seasonal return he ran a respectable race over 21f at Fontwell. He looked to have the race won but his lack of fitness probably told and he blew up in the last furlong. This son of Arcadio has often shaped as though 24f would suit and he needed every inch of the 20f trip at Sandown to get up and beat Jacamar last April.
In March 2021 he was 2nd in a Listed novice handicap chase off 135 and he is 3lbs lower today. Richard Rowe has always spoke highly about this lad and it’ll be fascinating to see if this new trip brings about another bit of improvement. I think it will and at odds of 20/1, Up The Straight is the each way selection.
Saturday Wetherby and Ascot Tips: Up The Straight e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NAP
3.35 Wetherby – Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2)
Just five runners in the day’s feature, the G2 Charlie Hall Chase. Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame are the headline acts here. They were two of last season’s most exciting novice chasers and they now move into the senior ranks. When they met at Aintree, Ahoy Senor won decisively but when they faced off at Kempton on Boxing Day, it was the Nicholls’ horse that emerged victorious. The bookies can’t split them and either can I.
It is pretty hard to see past the two main protagonists. Eldorado Allen is a horse I like but he has plenty to prove after his last two runs. Paint The Dream and Sam Brown would both love to see loads of rain. The Honeyball horse is proven at this trip but he likes to dominate and that may not be possible with Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame in opposition.
O’Brien Flying
In the hope that the top two maybe cut each other’s throats up front, I’m going to take a small chance on Paint The Dream. Fergal O’Brien’s horses are flying and this horse will be delighted to see the forecast rain. It was far too quick for him last time out but a repeat of his Aintree G1 4th behind Fakir D’oudairies could see him at least in contention for 3rd.
The furthest he has raced over is 22.5f and that resulted in a 7L win and the last time he had soft ground he won a G3 handicap off 147 by 15L. Now he steps up to 24f for the first time under rules and while he could have found himself in an easier race, at least he blew away the cobwebs at Chepstow three weeks ago. I should probably be leaving this race alone but I think 33/1 is a touch too big and at those odds, Paint The Dream is worth a small interest e/w.
