Saturday World Grand Prix Darts Preview and Tips – JP
Saturday World Grand Prix Darts Tips
James Punt got back on track with two lovely winners on Friday night. It could have been 3/3 only for MVG producing some sensational darts. Now we move into the semi final stage, James Punt’s Saturday World Grand Prix darts tips are below.
Gerwyn Price vs. Nathan Aspinall
It is 11-8 to Price in their previous matches, 1-1 in 2022 and 3-2 to Aspinall in TV tournaments. Aspinall says he likes playing Price as they both play at a brisk pace, and it is easier for him to find his rhythm. That may explain their close H2H record.
Price has played two Grand Prix semi-finals in 2021 and 2020 and won both, 4-2 and 4-3. This will be Aspinall’s first.
Price has been better at getting into the game on the starting doubles with 68% of first visits hit to Aspinall’s 53% so advantage there to the Welshman. It has been a bit of a 180 drought for Price with just six so far at a rate of 0.17 per leg. That is well down on his seasonal rate. The Asp hasn’t been much better with 12 hit at 0.21 per leg, again, below his seasonal average. If both have not been firing then we can go for unders for total 180s.
Saturday World Grand Prix darts tip: 1 point under 10.5 180s @ 2.00 with Ladbrokes
A short match would help. So far Price has had the easier job, needing just 35 legs to get here while Aspinall has had to play 56. Price has only had the one tough match and he finished that in style, winning the last two sets 3-0 against Cullen. It has been harder work for Aspinall, losing 22 legs while Price has lost just 10.
In the eight years when semi-finals have been best of seven sets, the most common score has been 4-1 (43.75%) followed by 4-3 (25%), 4-2 (18.75%) and 4-0 (12.5%). Price has won both his semi-finals 4-2 and 4-3.
Price Only Pushed Once
We have only seen Price pushed once here so far. He was 1-2 down to Cullen and in danger. His response was two superb sets, winning both 3-0. Aspinall has been taken to a decider in all three matches and he has found a way to win. Noppert should have beaten him, Lukeman was flattered by the 3-2 score line and Michael Smith is a bit of a bye in this event.
Price looks the better player and Aspinall is likely to be tested severely once again.
Price is the 1.44 favourite which is a bit short given their H2H record, but if he finds those gears we saw against Cullen, Aspinall could be toast, anybody would be toast. The Iceman is on a great run of form, winning 13 of his last 14 matches.
More than half the matches played so far have required a deciding set, but don’t think this will be another. Price has played 15 ranked major semi-finals and won 11, Aspinall 4 and won just one.
Saturday World Grand Prix darts tip: 1 point Price to win 4-2 @ 5.50 with Betfred
Michael van Gerwen vs. Peter Wright
Our number 1 ante post selection, Peter Wright, is the 2.20 outsider to win this, with Van Gerwen the 1.73 favourite. They have met no less than 94 times with MVG winning 69, Wright 23 with 3 drawn. That’s three wins for MVG for every win for Wright.
In 2022 it is worse for Wright having lost all five with a total leg score of 32-9. MVG likes to bully Wright and after a couple of years when Wright was much closer to MVG in their H2H’s, winning six from eleven played in 2020 and 2021, he has returned to beating him up.
Wright Average Going Downhill
Wright has played worse in each of his three matches played so far. Starting with a 94.3 average, to a 90.0 and an 84.5 last night. MVG on the other hand has improved match by match with match averages of 89.4, 94.3 and 99.3.
Since 2014 when the semi-finals became best of seven, MVG has played five, won the lot and only dropped more than one set once. He has won two 2-0 and two 4-1 with the other 4-2. Wright has only played one semi-final in this event and won it 4-3.
It doesn’t look good for Snakebite. I had hoped that MVG would have slipped up in the early rounds but Anderson wasn’t up to the job, despite getting chances, Bunting took him to a deciding set, but was never really looking like the winner and Van Gerwen has now settled into the tournament.
Snakebite Needs Best Form
We haven’t seen Wrights best form which suggests it isn’t around this week, and if he is to win, he will need it. The longer match format makes it less likely MVG will panic which we have seen him do at times this year. He can get tight on the big doubles and in a short match things can get away from him quickly. Here he has time to regroup. His check out % has improved with each match played and that suggests his confidence has grown at a similar rate.
There is no disgrace in bailing out on an ante post bet, and this looks like a good time to take covering action and at least recoup the 2 point stake.
