Spanish GP 2020 Tips and Preview by James Punt

The 70th anniversary GP last weekend went really well for our F1 tipster James Punt. Not only did he land a race winner bet Max Verstappen (advised 12/1), he also landed 3 of his 4 match bets (3.20, 2.20 and 1.85). James also landed a pole position bet with Bottas advised at 3.75. The focus switches to Barcelona this weekend, check out James Punt’s Spanish GP 2020 tips and preview below…

Spanish GP 2020 Tips and Preview

The 70th Anniversary GP last Weekend was very profitable one, which was welcome after a disappointing start to the season. Hopefully, this marks the start of more good results, a sentiment no doubt shared by the Red Bull team.

Max Verstappen’s commanding victory has raised hopes that he will now be able to mount a challenge to the all-conquering Mercedes behemoth. The truth is that that is unlikely. There was a combination of factors which conspired to severely handicap Mercedes combined with a great strategy call by Red Bull, executed to perfection by Verstappen. That cocktail may have been a one off.

The nature of the Silverstone circuit, with its very fast, long corners puts an enormous strain on the tyres. In the British GP two weeks ago, Mercedes only just got away with a win for Hamilton. He finished with just three tyres while Bottas fell right out of the points. The track was just killing the tyres on the Mercedes, a car that was just too quick for the rubber.

Increased Tyre Pressures

Pirelli had already scheduled a softer range of tyres for the 70th Anniversary race. It was clear from what we saw in the British GP, that they were going to be a challenge to manage. Not only is Silverstone very hard on tyres, the weather was very un-British. It was very hot and sunny which made the track surface tyre meltingly hot. The fact that Pirelli increased the tyre pressures to make the tyres safer was another factor that confused and hurt Mercedes performance.

The softest tyre in the range was effectively useless. It couldn’t keep its performance even for 1 lap. The problem was that Pirelli had allocated eight sets of the soft tyre to each car, three sets of mediums and two of the hard tyre, the best in the range. The teams could barely run the hard and mediums in free practice, so precious where they. Only one team attempted to qualify on the hard tyre, Red Bull with Verstappen. That was something of a gamble. Had he flat spotted them in Q2, he would have had to start on a set of damaged tyres. If the tyre was much slower than the ubiquitous medium, He may have failed to get into Q3.

In the end, he did a clean lap and got through to Q3 without a problem. Mercedes made their first mistake in Q2. They didn’t attempt to qualify on the hard tyre, despite knowing that they were going to struggle on the mediums. It was a rare, but very poor judgement. They hoped that two stops would be enough to get to the end of the race with the tyres intact.

Verstappen’s Tyre Choice The Right One

Come the race and Verstappen dodged another bullet by making a good start on the harder tyre. He made up a place when it would have been easy to drop back. He was able to keep in touch with the Mercedes and very quickly he was catching them, fast. The Mercedes where killing the medium tyres, big blisters making them very slow.

Verstappen then ignored team orders and attacked, took the lead and ran a long first stint. Even when he came out behind Bottas after his first stop, he just drove around him at the next corner. The Mercedes couldn’t even get the hard tyre to run without blistering. In the end, Verstappen won at a canter.

This ‘perfect storm’ of factors is unlikely to be repeated. But, that is not to say that Mercedes doesn’t face another difficult weekend.

For this weekend’s Spanish GP, Pirelli will be suppling the three hardest compounds in its range, the same as we saw for the British GP. Those tyres still gave Mercedes problems, so they are not out of the woods. However, the different nature of the two circuits is likely to be something of a saving grace for Mercedes.

High Energy Circuit In Spain

Silverstone has uniquely fast, sweeping, long duration corners which push the tyres to their limits, and beyond. The Circuit de Catalunya is described as a ‘high energy circuit’ which will be a decent test for the tyres, but it isn’t ‘Silverstone high energy’. The first four corners are pretty tough on the tyres, as is the turn nine. However, after that we have medium and slow speed corners which will not put the same loading into the tyre.

The weather will be very similar to Silverstone with dry, sunny conditions for all three days and temperatures of around 30 degrees. The track in Barcelona historically is very sensitive to even small changes in temperature and cars performance can change quite dramatically from session to session.

We know that Mercedes are not at their best in hot conditions and not just because of tyre wear. At the British GP we had the very high temperatures on the Friday, but the weather cooled down and it was not that hot on race day. Even then they had problems with the same range of tyres will see this weekend.

No Shortage Of Data

At least the Circuit de Catalunya is a track that all the teams have a lot of data to draw on. It is the venue for pre-season testing as well as a race venue. However, the race is traditionally held in April and the testing is in late February, both when ambient and track temperatures are much lower. Conditions will be quite alien to the teams at this track.  The teams have plenty of data for the track but not in the conditions will see this Sunday.

Most teams struggled to some extent with tyre wear on Sunday. The Pink Mercedes had to make a late stop for Hulkenberg as his tyres were about to fail and we saw McLaren struggle at the British GP.

Red Bull on the other hand looked comfortable, both with Alex Albon and Max Verstappen racing without problems. These hot conditions seem to polarise the performance of the two teams. Mercedes are working flat out to find a solution but that is asking a lot in what is just a matter of days. It may be that damage limitation is their only option, be that making extra pit stops or taking off downforce on the car, but it would seem any steps will be defensive and will make the cars slower.

Spanish GP 2020 Tips: The Track

The Circuit de Catalunya is used as a test venue because it features a wide range of corners, fast, medium and slow, as well as two straights to test power. It is a good all-round test of a car’s performance, go well here, and you should have a good car anywhere. We can look at who was fast here in the pre-season tests but that was a long time ago. The cars have evolved quite a bit since then, maybe not in the case of Haas, but most teams have been upgrading their cars race by race. The weather conditions were also very different and the value of any form from the pre-season tests isn’t great.

Mercedes were fastest, surprise, surprise. Red Bull next best and very close. Some observers even had them faster, as Verstappen was just 0.07 off Bottas best time on the final day of testing, but he was also on a harder tyre and backed off on his flying lap, just before he crossed the line. Renault were also very close to the pace with Ricciardo just 0.08 off Bottas but he was on the softer tyre compared to Verstappen, but the same as Bottas.

However, that was testing, notoriously unreliable with so many unknow factors, and add to that the different weather conditions and we have to take those times with a hefty pinch of salt.

The pole position diver has won four of the last six races here and before that, this was always a very strong track for the pole sitter. It is not an easy track for overtaking so a good grid position and start are important. The attrition rate is about average at 3.50 per race.

Spanish GP: Driver and Team Records

It will be no surprise to find that Mercedes have dominated here in the turbo Hybrid era. They have been on pole for the last six years with a front row lockout in five. They have won five of the six races, the only one they didn’t was in 2016. That was the race where Rosberg and Hamilton crashed on the first lap with both retiring on the spot. Max Verstappen, on his very first race in a Red Bull, went on to win.

Lewis Hamilton has won four of the six races since 2014 and been on pole position four times. Valtteri Bottas has one pole position and two second places.

Others with decent circuit form are Verstappen with that one win and he has been third for the last two years. Sebastian Vettel has three podiums and never been worse than fourth. Home favourite, Carlos Sainz, has five consecutive top nine finishes. Daniel Ricciardo has a couple of podiums. Daniil Kvyat has finished in the top ten in his last four races here. Romain Grosjean is another with four top ten finishes and his Haas teammate has been sixth and seventh here in the last two years.

As it is such a good test of a car’s abilities, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Circuit de Catalunya is a car circuit as opposed to a drivers track. We often see a ‘Noah’s Ark’ grid with teammates lining up beside each other on the grid, in order of how good their cars are.

Mercedes to Fill Front Row

This weekend we should see both Mercedes on the front row for the fifth time this year. Red Bull on the second row, but Albon will have to massively up his qualifying form to do so. Racing Point should around the third row but once again, we have to watch out for Renault who might upset the formbook.

Ferrari have traditionally been the second-best car here but this year they won’t be. Sebastian Vettel has lost the plot or just given up. He is blaming the car, the team, the tyres but whatever it is, he is out of the game. Ferrari will provide Vettel with a new chassis this weekend after they found a very small fault on his car, probably caused by hitting a kerb hard.

It was notable that the team added the caveat that it would not have had much impact on performance. That is code for ‘there was nothing wrong with the car, but we are kidding on to the driver that there was’. Vettel has now run out of excuses. Charles Leclerc on the other hand is performing superbly and getting results which the car doesn’t deserve.

Red Bull have had that one win in the turbo hybrid era but also four podiums and they have always been decent here, but perhaps never had the complete package thanks to underpowered cars. It has also been a good circuit for Haas who have scored points in all three of their races here.

Spanish GP: Current Form

On current form, Mercedes remains the best car, but it is a very good car which is struggling in hot conditions, and they are facing another boiling hot race this weekend. Hamilton will be getting a touch anxious, but he has a healthy 30 point lead over Verstappen and perhaps more importantly, a 34 point lead over his teammate.

Red Bull have seemed to have dialled out much of their cars skittishness and it looks more driveable and less on edge. They were not bothered by the hot conditions last week and if Mercedes continue to struggle with the tyres, then Verstappen could win back to back races.

His form figures of R/3/2/2/1 are hard to ignore and he performs well on the track. Albon is doing a good job in the races. He is not afraid to have a go and pass people but qualifying remains a big problem. He is averaging just 9.20 in qualifying while his teammate is 3.80. May be on a track he has driven many times, he will be able to deliver a better performance this Saturday.

Racing Point Underwhelming So Far

Racing Point were expected to be getting podiums and to be right up there, making life hard for Red Bull. So far it hasn’t worked out so well. They are now in fifth place after having 15 points deducted for their illegal appropriation of brake duct designs, but even with those points, they would only just be ahead of McLaren. Sergio Perez will return to the team after his Covid 19 infection, but they are not matching Red Bull and they may not be big fans of the hot weather, with their Mercedes lookalike car.

McLaren have slipped down the current form table after a bright start to the season. They have scored just nine points in the last three races. Carlos Sainz just can’t get a break and is clearly getting frustrated. He has always gone well here so maybe he can get back to scoring points this weekend. The car is better in qualifying than in the race and Sainz was one of the drivers to suffer a tyre failure at the British GP, so maybe it could be another decent Saturday followed by a disappointing race.

Race Day Issues For Renault

Renault, a bit like Racing Point and McLaren, just can’t seem to get it alright on the night. Last weekend was a case in point. Ricciardo was very fast in practice, faster than Red Bull, and a decent fifth in qualifying, but his race just unravelled at every turn and he finished a very poor fourteenth. Ocon only qualified eleventh, had a three place penalty on top, but he finished eighth after a good drive. The car has good performance. They just need to get it right on Saturday and Sunday. If this were a school report, it would say ‘could do better’, a lot better.

Ocon had his best ever F1 result here, finishing fifth in 2017, won a race here in F3 and it is a track he likes a lot. Maybe this weekend he can get qualifying and the race pace he showed last week together and score some good points.

Alpha Tauri are in a class of their own. Not quick enough for the midfield proper but too quick to be a backmarker. Both drivers, Gasly and Kvyat, have had good results here and another point would not surprise, but it was never a great venue for Toro Rosso, as they were known before the name change. To score, they may need a bit of attrition from the cars ahead.

It is a bit of a bun fight at the back with Williams improving in qualifying but not in the race, Haas running short of money and spare parts and Alfa Romeo now the worst qualifying car on the grid. Haas probably have the best package but it will be a surprise if they can continue with their record of scoring in Barcelona every year.

Spanish GP 2020 Tips: Ante Post Recommendations

Even with tyre worries in the very hot conditions, Mercedes still look hard to oppose in qualifying. Historically they lock out the front row here and they are four from five front row lockouts this season. The only exception was the wet qualifying at the Stryian GP.

Being on pole in Barcelona historically means a very strong likelihood of winning the race. This year, in fierce heat, Mercedes Achilles Heel is exposed. It is not a given that they will suffer the same problems as they did at Silverstone last week. The circuit is not as punishing on the tyres, we don’t know if Pirelli are going to up the tyre pressures again and Mercedes will have been working hard to find solutions to the problem, or at least a way to mitigate them.

However, they have to be taken on given that they are working in unfavourable conditions. The only man who looks like a realistic threat is Max Verstappen. He is getting on much better with his Red Bull after a shaky start and Red Bull have no great problems in the hot conditions.

The question is, to take the 6.00 available now, or wait until after qualifying, when Mercedes will be sitting on the front row. Verstappen went off in double figure odds last weekend, so his odds may drift again, but surely not by a great deal. I suggest we go now and if the odds are much bigger on Sunday, go again.

Spanish GP 2020 Tips: 2 points Max Verstappen to win the Spanish GP @ 6.00 with Skybet

It looked like we going to pull a stroke with Ricciardo last week at fancy odds. He was a very convincing third quickest in FP2 and a decent fifth on the grid. His podium odds came in from 67.00 to around 5.00, but his race was appalling. His teammate on the other hand recovered from a poor qualifying and grid penalty to finish 8^th.

Renault are showing that the car has good performance and the potential to score a lot of points.  They are certainly better than sixth place in the constructors table suggests. Both drivers like the track and it performed well in pre-season testing. They have overcome the cooling problems which caused one of their cars to retire in both the opening races, but they are still not quite getting the most out of their package. Driver errors don’t help in a very crowded and competitive midfield but this is a car circuit and as such, Renault should be looking to get a double points finish. Ocon is a weak link in qualifying, averaging 10.6, but being just outside the top 10 would not be a disaster.

Spanish GP 2020 Tips: 2 points Renault to have a double points finish @ 2.40 with Sportingbet

Spanish GP 2020 Tips: 1 point Daniel Ricciardo to finish in the top 6 @ 4.00 with Betfair, Paddy Power

Updates for qualifying and the race will be posted as usual, around 30 minutes before the start of the sessions, on the TXODDS app. Make sure you download it to ensure you don’t miss out on any winning tips!

-JamesPunt