Sunday 2023 PDC World Championship Tips – DS
Sunday 2023 PDC World Championship Preview
James Punt has been on a decent run the last few days and he landed another correct score winner on Friday night. We are into the quarter finals stage now and James has looked at all four of today’s matches. Check out his Sunday 2023 PDC World Championship tips below.
Dimitri van den Bergh vs. Jonny Clayton
Both players have played very much to their 2022 season levels. Dimitri’s tournament average is bang on his 12 month average of 94.4, Jonny Clayton’s a fraction better at 97.0 compared to a 12 month average of 96.6.
It is fair to say that Clayton has been the more impressive in terms of the matches he has played. He beat Josh Rock in the last round, 4-3, in a high-quality match. Van den Bergh beat Kim Huybrechts 4-0 and he has dropped just the one set in the tournament so far, against Ratajski. The Polish Eagle was his only opponent to have averaged over 90 against him (92.3), so he has not been properly tested yet.
Their H2H form is 7-5 to Van den Bergh. In 2022 it was 2-1 to Clayton and on TV 1-1. Not a lot between them in past form or indeed tournament form, only that Clayton has faced tougher opposition.
Never Past The Quarter Finals
Van den Bergh has played in two previous World Championship quarter finals and lost both, 4-5 and 3-5. Clayton have never got this far before, but he has plenty of big match experience. He has played nine ranked major quarter finals and won six. He has played in 12 non-ranked TV tournament quarter finals and won 9.
Clayton is the 1.63 favourite with Van den Bergh at 2.30. That looks fair enough. In 2022 all their matches were close. 3-2 to Van den Bergh in the Grand Prix (Dimitri’s favourite event), 6-4 to Clayton on the European Tour and 10-9 to Clayton in the Masters. There is little between the two the two in terms of vital stats and both players should be able to win sets. Dimitri’s two defeats at this stage both went over 7.5 sets, and another would be no surprise.
Sunday 2023 PDC World Championship tips: 1 point over 7.5 sets @ 1.95 with SportingIndex
Sunday 2023 PDC World Championship tips: 0.5 point Clayton to win 5-4 @ 7.00 with SpreadEx
Michael Smith vs. Stephen Bunting
Smith remains in top form, winning nine of his last ten matches. He has played in three previous World Championship quarter finals, winning two and winning a total of 14 sets from a possible 15. His tournament average is 98.3, better than his 12 month average of 96.9.
Stephen Bunting has a tournament average of 97.6, better than his 12 month average of 95.0. He has won seven of his last ten matches. He has played in two World Championship quarter finals, losing 4-5 to Barney in 2015 and beating Ratajski 5-3 two years ago.
Their H2H record is a little surprising. Bunting leads 8-5, 1-0 in 2022 and he has won all three of their TV matches. It should be pointed out that they have not met on TV since 2016.
Bunting Hard To Fault
Before the start of the tournament I would have been happy if I knew that Smith would be facing Bunting in the quarter final. However, Bunting has been hard to fault so far, and this looks like being a tough match for Smith, as it is for Bunting.
Bunting has put in two high scoring performances in his last two matches, keeping up his form and last year he averaged 101 when beating Ratajski. Smith, on a roll after winning his first major, looks a bit more relaxed than we have seen in the past. He likes set play and he looks in a good frame of mind.
Mental Strength
At this stage of the biggest tournament of the year, mental strength is key. Not panicking if things are going against you, not getting ahead of yourself if winning by a couple of sets. The winner will be the one that can keep focused on each leg of match, riding out the troughs and being patient.
In the past, I would have put both players fairly low in the mental strength rankings, despite their great experience. Now that Smith has got that major monkey of his back, I expect that he will be more relaxed. Bunting has not wobbled yet, he won at this stage two years ago and gave Price a run for his money in the semi-final. It would be easy to just say that Bunting will fold before Smith, but he has looked solid so far.
Gifted Players
The market has Smith as the 1.33 favourite and Bunting 3.50. They are two of the most gifted players around, know each other well, and the H2H record tells us that Bunting will not be intimidated by playing Smith. This is not a mismatch, but Bunting is going to have work harder than he did against the disappointing Humphries in the last round. That said, he handled a ton plus averaging Dave Chisnall in the third round.
Smith showed good mental strength to come from 1-3 down to beat Martin Schindler 4-3 in the third round. In years gone by, he may not have been able to do that.
I have to make Smith the favourite but his odds of 1.33 look too short. I would not be surprised to see a close match, which hopefully Smith can edge.
Sunday 2023 PDC World Championship tips: 2 points over 7.5 sets @ 2.20 with BET365
Gerwyn Price vs. Gabriel Clemens
Price has not really started yet, or at least, he will hope that that he hasn’t started yet. His tournament average is just 93.6. That compares poorly with a 12 month average of 97.3. We know that he is a player who has gears, who can start slowly but suddenly engage that next gear, and the next one and peak at the right time, but it must be said that his form so far is best described as flat. Compare his form in this to his Grand Slam form. He hit five consecutive ton plus averages and was 102.4 at the Slam, and he lost his quarter final match.
On the plus side, he has only dropped two sets so far, but he hasn’t had to do much more than he had to win against some disappointing opponents. Price has played in the quarters here for the last three years. He beat Glen Durrant 5-1, beat Daryl Gurney 5-4 and last year lost 4-5 to Michael Smith. He has won seven of his last ten matches, but his form can only be said to be OK so far.
German Record Breaker
Gabriel Clemens is the first German to make a World Championship quarter final. It is a big deal in a country desperate for darting success. He will be getting a lot of attention and will be aware of the magnitude of this match. Clemens is a phlegmatic character and won’t be overly bothered by any antics that Price may employ.
The Big Man is averaging 95.6 so far, above his 12 month average of 92.3. That may be down to him having gotten over a problem with his wrist which had been giving him some pain, but whatever it is, he is playing well, but not scarily so.
Their H2H record is a worry for Clemens with 0-4 to Price. All four matches were played in 2019 -2020, two were on TV and their last 16 match at the UK Open went to a deciding leg (9-10).
Price A Worthy Fav?
If you were pricing this match up only from what you have seen in this tournament, the odds would be close, but perhaps Clemens would be the marginal favourite. But then you factor in the fact that Price has won it before, has played three quarter finals, is 4-0 in the H2H’s, is the world number 1, the more accomplished performer and you have to make the Welshman favourite.
Price is the 1.22 favourite and Clemens 5.00. Price just looks too short given what we have seen from him so far. If he finds his Grand Slam form, then its goodbye Clemens. If he continues to play flat, Clemens is in the match. That is the choice to be made. Do you believe that Price has been sand bagging, holding back his best, or is he just off the boil?
He has been talking about taking up Rugby again, so that he can do something ‘he likes doing’. He has put on some weight and says that he has been spending too much time on his property business. That sounds like someone who is not in the best place going into the business end of the biggest event of the year.
Lack Of Experience
Clemens’ big problem is a lack of big match experience. He hasn’t even won a senior PDC title never mind being a regular in major quarter finals. It would be understandable if he got on stage and shit himself. It is a good draw for Price. He always looked very likely to reach the quarter final and to me, only Danny Noppert in this quarter looked a proper threat.
To be facing Clemens is a bit of a bonus, but if Price thinks he can just coast through another match, he might get himself embroiled (why to darts commentators always go on about players getting embroiled?) in a sticky match. If he doesn’t find his gears, then Clemens could make this lot closer than the bookmakers think.
We have backed Price to win the quarter, but I have not liked what I have seen from him so far. What to do? Hope he pulls his finger out and starts playing nearer his 12 month average, or put something on Clemens?
Sunday 2023 PDC World Championship tips: 0.5 point Gabriel Clemens to win @ 5.00 with BET365, Boylesports, Betfair
Michael van Gerwen vs. Chris Dobey
MVG has awarded himself the title already. He is the best and everyone knows it. Based on what we have seen so far, it’s hard to disagree. He is averaging 103.2, better than his 12 month average of 99.3, which is the highest 12 month average in the game. He has dropped three sets and he hasn’t been perfect, but he has never been under any serious pressure. He is in top form, winning nine of his last ten matches.
MVG has played in eight world championship quarter finals and won seven. The only blot was his 0-5 hammering by Dave Chisnall. That was a freak result and Dobey doesn’t have the sort of game to ‘do a Chizzy’. Half of his QF wins have been 5-1 or 5-2 and something similar would be no surprise.
Dobey On Form
Chris Dobey is in good form, winning seven of his last ten matches. His tournament average is 94.7, very much in line with his 12 month average of 95.0. He has improved round by round and averaged 102.1 when beating Rob Cross in the last round. Dobey has never got this far in a World Championship before, but he has played in six ranked major quarter finals, winning three, the latest being at this year European Championship. He has never made a final and you have to think that he is going to be nervous. Much more so than MVG.
Their H2H record is a comprehensive 11-1 to MVG, but Dobey’s only win was in the last match they played at the European Championship which Dobey won 6-5. He did that despite checking out at just 28.5% but he caught Van Gerwen on an off day and Dobey was out of the blocks much better that day, with a first 9 dart average of 108 compared to MVG’s 92.5.
Determined MVG
I doubt that narrow win over the minimum distance is going to put the fear of God into Van Gerwen. It just might make him a bit more determined to put Dobey back in his box. They have twice met in a sets based format and MVG won both, 4-0 and 3-1, both at the Grand Prix. Both were big matches, a semi-final and a quarter final, and it was one way traffic in both.
Michael van Gerwen is the 1.18 favourite with Dobey 5.50. If this was just purely down to darting prowess, we could have a reasonably close match, but it will also be about mental strength over a longer format. Dobey is not known for his mental strength. That is why he has won just two floor titles in eight years and MVG has won 29 ranking majors, including three World Championships.
