Sunday Evening Grand Slam of Darts Tips – JP
Sunday Evening Grand Slam of Darts Preview
James Punt’s outright betting preview is here. Check out his Sunday Evening Grand Slam of Darts tips below.
Josh Rock vs. Scott Williams
The two new kids on the block both lost yesterday, both underperformed, both hit sub 90 averages, and both were nervous. Williams had given it the big one, that he was here to shoot the lights out, hit big numbers and so on, but it was a case of all fur coat and no knickers.
Rock failed to take advantage of a poor performance by Ryan Searle while Williams looked every bit the Challenge tour player when averaging 88 in a 2-5 defeat to Luke Humphries. They are both under a bit more pressure here as a defeat is very likely to mean an early trip back home.
They have met twice before, both this year, at Q school and on the euro tour. Rock won both, 6-1 and 6-2. He is the better, more experienced, more consistent player and hopefully he can put yesterday’s disappointment behind him and get closer to his normal game. Williams has lost six of his last ten matches and Rock has to be fancied to win this. He is the 1.33 favourite but given their H2H record he should be looking to win with something in hand.
Sunday Evening Grand Slam of Darts Tips: 1 point Rock to win -2.5 legs @ 2.25 with Betfred, Betfair, SportingIndex
Damon Heta vs. Leonard Gates
I am beginning to regret picking Heta outright. He just seems to underperform in the big events. Luckily for him and us, he gets another go in this one. He faces the American qualifier, Leonard Gates, who was whitewashed by Jonny Clayton. He looked very confused much of the time, never sure what his score was or what he needed.
Heta was well beaten by the in-form Jermaine Wattimena. He won back to back legs to get it back to 2-2 but then missed 3 darts to make it 3-2, missed three more in the next leg and lost the next for a 2-5 defeat which should have been a win if the best doubler in the game could actually hit a double.
Heta will have to go some to lose this one and he is the 1.18 favourite. He lost his opening match in 2020 but bounced back with a 5-1 win over Glen Durrant in the second match. Something similar should be on the cards.
Sunday Evening Grand Slam of Darts Tips: 0.5 point Heta to win 5-1 @ 4.50 with SpreadEx
Ross Smith vs. Nathan Rafferty
European Champion, Ross Smith, lost a deciding leg to Luke Woodhouse and it was a fair result, Woodhouse was the better player. It wasn’t Smith’s finest match, but it wasn’t terrible. Nathan Rafferty lost 2-5 to MVG. No shame in the that but he can do better than his 87 average in the match.
They have never met before so no H2H form to go on. Smith is obviously a more experienced player but, in this event, he has played in two previously and failed to get beyond the group stage. Rafferty has played in one previously and made the second round and did so after losing his first-round match, so he has been here before.
Smith is the 1.36 favourite, Rafferty 3.25. Those odds probably flatter Smith a little or underrate Rafferty a little. There isn’t a huge gulf in their scoring, just consistency. Smith can better at his best more regularly, but their A games are much the same. Rafferty has lost six of his last ten however and he can’t be feeling that confident. I’ll pass on this one.
Sunday Evening Grand Slam of Darts Tips: No Bet
Nathan Aspinall vs. Fallon Sherrock
Sherrock looked thoroughly pissed off after losing 1-5 to Peter Wright last night. Wright was not playing well and Sherrock had plenty of chances to win legs but just couldn’t take them, missing six doubles, and her checkout rate was just 14%. She should have gone 3-1 but was 1-3 instead. She gave up after that.
Aspinall lost 4-5 to Alan Soutar in a scrappy match. Aspinall was almost as bad on the doubles as Sherrock was. He missed 16 for a checkout rate of 20%. He missed nine doubles in the second leg alone and eight in the fifth so his head was spinning and Soutar took advantage.
Doubles Key
I would say that whoever can hit more than 25% of their doubles wins. Aspinall is the 1.09 favourite, Sherrock 8.00. That is a very short price for a player who has lost six of his last ten matches and the last three in a row. It hasn’t been his doubling that has been the problem when losing and I expect him to be able to bounce back and win here but the odds are of no interest.
Sherrock has been in exactly this position before. Last year she lost 1-5 to Peter Wright in the opener but she then beat Mike de Decker 5-0 and Gabriel Clemens 5-3 to reach the knockout stage and then she beat Suljovic to reach the quarter finals. Her problem is that Aspinall is a tougher proposition than De Decker. It was also noticeable that the crowd were not quite on her side last night. No bet.
Sunday Evening Grand Slam of Darts Tips: No Bet
Jonny Clayton vs. Jermaine Wattimena
Clayton had a facile 5-0 win over Leonard Gates and it was job done, the manner was not important. It will be a lot tougher against an in-form Wattimena.
Machine Gun was an easy 5-2 winner against Damon Heta and he averaged 97.5. He has now won nine of his last ten matches and even I cannot fault that. His seasonal win rate is just 56% so he is playing very much at the top of his game. Eventually he will get ahead of himself and freeze, but for now, the game is easy for him.
Their H2H form is good for Wattimena. He is 8-5 against The Ferret and in 2022 2-1, with the Dutchman winning the last two. Clayton has lost five of his last ten and I’m all about recent form and that means, I have to back Jermaine Wattimena. Shocked does not cover it.
Sunday Evening Grand Slam of Darts Tips: 1 point Jermaine Wattimena to win @ 3.75 with BET365
Michael van Gerwen vs. Luke Woodhouse
Woody produced a good performance to beat Ross Smith yesterday, averaging 97, 50% on the doubles and hitting six maximums. Something similar and he could cause MVG problems. The problem is that MVG rarely puts a foot wrong in these group matches. He has won his last 11 and the last defeat was a 4-5 loss to Jonny Clayton in 2018, and MVG averaged 107 that day.
Their H2H record is 5-1 to MVG, but Woodhouse did win their last one, 6-3 last July. Woodhouse has won seven of his last ten matches and so long as he doesn’t get ahead of himself and think about the knockout phase, he should be able to just treat this as an opportunity, not a necessity. His match with Rafferty might be.
MVG is the 1.20 favourite and I’m not quite prepared to oppose him outright, but in a short format, Wood house could ruffle his feathers and win a few legs, make a match of it. It is 15-13 in legs over their last three matches, so maybe Woodhouse can push MVG close.
Sunday Evening Grand Slam of Darts Tips: 1 point Woodhouse to win +2.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfair, BET365
Peter Wright vs. Alan Soutar
An all Scottish affair and a possible group winner decider. Wright was very poor against Sherrock last night and he going to have to raise his game. Soutar was patchy against Aspinall and was helped by The Asp’s poor performance on the outer ring.
Their H2H record is 3-2 to Soutar, all played in the last two years, and he won their only match this year 6-5. Wright hasn’t been at his best, while Soutar has played some good stuff recently, winning eight of his last ten so his confidence is high and he knows he can beat Wright.
Wright is the 1.33 favourite, Soutar 4.00. There is some value in the 4.00 about Soutar, but after getting my arse kicked last night, discretion may be wiser.
Sunday Evening Grand Slam of Darts Tips: 1 point Soutar to win +2.5 legs @ 1.75 with Boylesports
Luke Humphries vs. Ryan Searle
Searle was lucky to get away with another iffy performance against Josh Rock last night. He only averaged 88 but caught Rock on an off night and won 5-4. He has lost five of his last ten matches and he will have seen the irony of playing badly but winning. His pattern of play in recent months is to have played well and lose. It is hard to call Ryan Searle at the moment but opposing him has been profitable.
Luke Humphries didn’t have to do much to beat Scott Williams 5-2. That was his seventh win from his last ten and it must be said that he is playing well with half those matches seeing ton plus averages and he is one of the heaviest scorers in the game these days.
These two are pals, which is a turn off for me betting wise. Searle is 6-5 up but Humphries won the most recent match 10-6 at the European Championships. In 2022 it is 2-2.
Humphries is the 1.57 favourite, but this is a no bet match for me.
