Thursday European Championship Finals Tips

Tonight sees the start of the 2021 European Championship Darts Finals. You can watch the action live on ITV and it promises to be a thrilling tournament. As ever, James Punt will have previews for every match (outright preview here). Check out his Thursday European Championship Finals preview and tips below.

Simon Whitlock vs. William Borland

Two players at the extreme of the experience spectrum. Borland is making his debut while former champion Whitlock is making his eleventh appearance. These two players have met twice, both this season and on consecutive days back in April. Whitlock won the first 6-4, Borland got revenge the next day with a 6-1 win.

This is a big match for both players. Borland is looking to avoid going back to Q school in January and a win here would nudge him into or very close to the top 64. He has won seven of his last ten matches. Like most of the young players he lacks consistency, and it is hard to know what you are going to get.

Simon Whitlock is on the cusp of a return to the top 16 and this is a must win. The Wizard loves this event, making three finals and winning back in 2013. He has won six of his last ten matches, reaching the semi-final of the Gibraltar Darts Trophy before losing a close match with Mensur Suljovic.

Whitlock is the 1.44 favourite with Borland 2.90. Borland is not without a chance, but I expect Whitlock will have prepared well for this match, never mind the tournament. I would want to be getting 3.50 or so before backing Borland. No bet.

Brendan Dolan vs. Kim Huybrechts

Their H2H record shows a 8-3 lead to Huybrechts but they have not met since October 2020 and Dolans standard of play has really taken off since then, while Huybrechts has declined. Dolan has won six of last ten, Huybrechts five.

Huybrechts has lost his last three first round matches in this tournament while Dolan hasn’t qualified since 2015.

Brenda Dolan is the better player these days, but Huybrechts can still be a very dangerous opponent. In his last three matches he has had 108 and 105 averages and that would likely be too much for Dolan.

Dolan is the 1.73 favourite with one bookmaker, quite a lot shorter elsewhere and Huybrechts is the 2.45 outsider. That is tempting on Kim but as with many Dolan matches, I can see this one being close.

Thursday European Championship Finals Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs at 2.00 with Betfair, Paddy Power

Rob Cross vs. Keane Barry

There is no H2H form to go on here as this will be their first meeting. Rob Cross has been in indifferent form lately, failing to string two wins together since early August. He was playing better then, scoring generally in the high nineties and he was heading in the right direction. More recently his scoring has dropped to the low to mid-nineties.

Keane Barry is serving his apprenticeship, and this is his first year on the pro tour after a successful junior career. His scoring is a few points lower than Cross’ but his A game is good enough to beat Cross if he continues to average in the low 90’s. However, he is more likely to hit a sub 90 average than a 95+.

Cross is the 1.41 favourite with Barry available at 3.20. In a first to six format, Barry has a reasonable chance but his A game was more visible in the first half of the year and he has struggled against the big names more recently. Cross is due a win if his recent pattern of win one, lose one continues. Barry can be backed at 1.67 with a +2.5 handicap but there isn’t much value there and this is just one of those outsiders who could win, but probably won’t and are odds of 3.20 enough to take a chance on? Not quite for me.

Luke Humphries vs. Callan Rydz

Humphries is one of our ante post selections to win the title, but this is a big test for him. He has lost all three of his matches vs. Rydz and lost them by a fairly large margin. The total leg score is 15-6 to Rydz. All those matches were at junior level and their last match was two and a half years ago.

Rydz has lost five of his last ten matches, but he showed what he can do in the Gibraltar Darts Trophy when he hit averages of 103.7 and 110.7 before losing to Brendan Dolan in the third round, averaging 92.9. As with most developing young players, the consistency isn’t quite there, but his ability is clear to see. He lacks the experience of Humphries, but Rydz is getting more used to playing on stage and he reached the quarter final at the World Matchplay in the summer.

Humphries is the 1.54 favourite, Rydz 2.60 and if anything, the value lies with Rydz. I have nailed my colours to Humphries mast and will just have to hope he can get past a dangerous opponent.

Jose De Sousa vs. Lewy Williams

Another match with a big name drawn against one of the lesser known, young players. Williams is in decent form, winning six of his last ten matches when you include his development tour matches. At senior level it is still 6-4 and he has taken down a number of big names in 2021. He Beat Ratajski 6-3 in the Hungarian Darts Trophy, averaging a shade under 99 but then lost 2-6 to Adam Gawlas in the third round, averaging 89.9. Classic form of a talented youngster.

Since winning his tour card in January, Williams has beaten such players as Van Gerwen, Van den Bergh, Aspinall, Gurney, Ratajski and a certain Jose de Sousa, so he can take his chances and he has that something about him that makes you take notice.

De Sousa has been off the boil for a while now. Even his run to the semi-final of the Hungarian Darts Trophy was marked by unusually light scoring. His seasonal average is 98.6 but in his last ten matches, not including the double in matches from last week, is just 92.3. Williams seasonal average is 92.0.

These two have met in a ranking major before, the 2020 UK Open and again it was Williams who won and again by the same 6-4 score line.

With De Sousa’s recent form being a bit off and with Williams 2-0 H2H form against De Sousa, we have an outsider who you can argue must have a good chance, rather than just a chance.

Thursday European Championship Finals Tip: 1 point Lewy Williams to win @ 3.60 with Ladbrokes

Thursday European Championship Finals Tip: 0.5 point Williams to win 6-4 @ 12.00 with Betfred

Peter Wright vs. Florian Hempel

Hempel is not a youngster, but he is another player in his first year on the pro tour, facing one of the established stars of the sport. They met last month at the Hungarian Darts Trophy, and it was Snakebite who won 6-3. He is by far the heavier scorer with a seasonal average of 98.5 to Hempel’s 90.0. 

Hempel has won five of his last ten matches, as has Wright. However, Wright has been up against some great performances. Wright has put in three under par performances in last ten non double in matches but even those would be around Hempel’s normal level. Clearly it is likely that Hempel will need his A game and even that may not be enough.

Wright is the 1.25 favourite, Hempel 4.50 and hopefully Wright will make his way into the second round. He has only lost two first round matches in this event from nine starts.

Mensur Suljovic vs. Adam Hunt

Mensur has a healthy 4-0 H2H record against Hunt and a total leg score of 29-9. They haven’t played for just over two years but Hunt won’t relish facing the big Austrian in Austria.

Suljovic’s comeback is going well, if with the expected lack of consistency. He is still lacking a bit of match fitness, but a World Cup final and a euro tour final after a four month lay off is encouraging.

Hunt loses more matches than he wins and has a seasonal average of just 89 and in his last six matches, just 85.

This should be a straight forward win for The Gentle.

Thursday European Championship Finals Tip: 1 point Suljovic to win -2.5 legs @ 2.10 with Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Betfair

Thursday European Championship Finals Tip: 0.5 point Suljovic to win 6-2 @ 6.50 with SpreadEx

Joe Cullen vs. Ted Evetts

Cullen has won both their previous meetings and won them very easily, 6-1 and 6-2 in a match two months ago. Evetts has won five of his last ten pro tour matches, while Cullen has lost six of his last ten as his excellent early season form has tailed off. He is still playing some very good darts, but his consistency has been poor.

 Evetts has a good A game, but it just doesn’t get out enough. He has too many low scoring matches to get many good runs going at senior level and his game has regressed in the last two years. He really needs a win here to help his chances of avoiding the dreaded return to Q school. That brings its own pressure and I expect Cullen to progress to the second round. Cullen is the 1.33 favourite, Evetts 3.60.

Thursday European Championship Finals Tip: 1 point Cullen to win -2.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfair, Paddy Power

-JamesPunt