Thursday Night Grand Slam of Darts Tips – JP
Thursday Night Grand Slam of Darts Preview
It was another decent night for James Punt on Wednesday with two winners from three bets. Let’s hope for more of the same this evening. Check out James Punt’s Thursday night Grand Slam of Darts preview below.
Nathan Aspinall vs. Jermaine Wattimena
Aspinall topped Group 4 by leg difference from Alan Soutar. The Asp lost his opening match against Soutar but wins over Sherrock and a disinterested Peter Wright were enough to get him through. Aspinall has lost six of his last ten matches and the usually very consistent player is not at his best, averaging just 93 across his three group matches.
Jermaine Wattimena came into the tournament in good form and continued that good form with a 97 average and a 5-2 win over Damon Heta. However, since then he has reverted to type, losing 0-5 to Jonny Clayton. He secured his place in the knockout phase with a 5-1 win over an out of his depth Leonard Gates. He has won eight of his last ten matches. Two sub 90 averages in a row suggest that his run of good form has come to an end. He has played nine TV matches in the last twelve months, winning four.
Asp Dominant in H2H
Their H2H record is a comprehensive 6-0 to Aspinall, although three of those matches went to a deciding leg. They have met three times in 2022 and Aspinall won 6-5, 6-2 and 6-5. The 6-2 win was a stage match on the Euro Tour but they have never met in TV tournament.
This would look to be a straightforward win for The Asp, but which Wattimena will turn up. The one that was banging in ton plus averages in the qualifying tournament, or the one that hit sub 90 averages in his last two matches? The one who could make it close, or the one that gets easily beaten? It is interesting that his five defeats have all been heavy ones. 2-6, 0-3, 5-10, 1-6 and 0-5.
Aspinall is the 1.34 favourite to win, which is a bit short for someone not at the top of his game, but a 6-0 H2H record suggests he will win and when Wattimena loses he has been losing big on TV. In his last five first to 10 format matches on TV he lost all five, 9-10, 4-10, 6-10, 4-10 and 5-10.
Thursday night Grand Slam of Darts Tips: 1 point Aspinall to win -2.5 legs @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes
Thursday night Grand Slam of Darts Tips: 0.5 point Aspinall to win 10-4 @ 11.00 with Unibet
Jonny Clayton vs. Alan Soutar
Soutar came agonisingly close to winning Group E, but a raft of missed match darts against Peter Wright saw that chance slip through his fingers. He has won seven of his last ten matches, including three ton plus averages, but he was not playing to that level in the group matches, averaging 92.
There were also three sub 90 averages so we are not looking at a consistent player. Soots’ TV experience is limited, this is only his second year on tour. He has played 14 TV matches and won 9. He seems to enjoy his TV matches, despite getting barracked by English football fans.
Ferret Below Par
Jonny Clayton has been below par so far, averaging just 89 across his three group matches, and he has lost five of his last ten matches. He is rarely in poor form for very long and he has the ability to win with his B game, but it is hard to get too enthusiastic about his chances of a long run.
Their H2H record is 2-0 to Clayton, both floor matches with wins of 6-1 and 6-5, both last year. Clayton is the 1.30 favourite, Soutar 3.60 and the odds for Clayton are too short given his recent form. The odds on Soutar are good enough to take a chance on.
Thursday night Grand Slam of Darts Tips: 1 point Alan Soutar to win @ 3.60 with SpreadEx
Michael van Gerwen vs. Josh Rock
A mouth-watering clash between the old master and the young pretender.
Van Gerwen won his group as usual, but he did suffer one defeat, a 4-5 loss to the in-form Ross Smith. He still averaged 102 across his three matches and has won seven of his last ten. He is scoring very well, and it just shows how hard it is to dominate these days as he is averaging in the high 90’s but still losing matches. It really is very hard to find anything wrong with his game, but the overall standard is just getting higher.
Josh Rock is one of those players raising the standards. He already has the 11th highest seasonal average (96.19 compared to 98.3 for MVG). Not bad for a player who only got his tour card in January. Like MVG, Rock has won seven of his last ten and he too lost one of his group matches. He was out of sorts in a 4-5 loss to Ryan Searle but recovered with averages of 96.6 and 99.2 when beating Scott Williams and Luke Humphries respectively.
First Clash
These two have not yet played each other and no doubt Van Gerwen will want to put some manners on the youngster. He likes to supress threats early on, but Rock doesn’t seem to care who he plays, he just wants to win.
MVG has so much more experience of playing on the big TV stages and that has to be an advantage. Rock has played just six matches in televised majors and won three. His most recent one outside of this one, was in the European Championship when he beat Aspinall 6-5 and only just lost out to Michael Smith 8-10 (and he averaged 101.7 in that match).
I doubt either player is going to be able to dominate and we could have another cracker here, having been treated to three 10-8 matches last night. MVG is the 1.45 favourite, Rock 2.80, and the market is paying Rock due respect. He may well win, but MVG is going to be very hard to beat and I will sit on the fence and go for a long match.
Thursday night Grand Slam of Darts Tips: 1 point over 16.5 legs @ 1.91 with Hills, Boylesports
Luke Humphries vs. Ross Smith
While people are rightly getting very excited about Josh Rock, perhaps the hottest property in darts right now is Ross Smith. It is hard to think that he was a 151.00 shot to win the European Championship, such is the standard of his play.
He beat MVG 5-4 in his last match, averaging 107.9. His seasonal stats are nothing to write home about, but his recent form is very hot and his confidence never higher. He has won seven of his last ten and he has not suffered any mental let down after his first major title win last month.
Luke Humphries is another young player who is on the rise, joining the elite level player but still looking for his first TV title. Humphries has won six of his ten matches and he rarely averages less than 95. 74% of his last 50 matches have seen averages above 95.
Close H2H
Their H2H record is 3-2 to Humphries but two of those were Home Tour matches. They have not met this year and Humphries can expect a much improved version of Smith tonight.
Both players are big 180 hitters, both hitting at a seasonal 32% and Smith hit a record breaking nine against MVG at a rate of 1 per leg or 100%. He did something very similar against Stephen Bunting recently hitting eight in a 4-6 defeat. Humphries has only hit 5 maximums so far in this tournament and didn’t hit a single one in his defeat by Rock. That was a shock as he hit ten against him when losing the final of PC28.
Maximums
So far Humphries 180 per leg rate is 24% and for Smith a whopping 56%. It is unlikely that he can hit them at the kind of rate that he did against MVG, but it is part of his game which has been very strong in the last month or two.
Humphries is the 1.70 favourite and Smith 2.20. There is a bit of value in Smith’s odds and this looks to be a bit of a coin toss, but I prefer to play in the 180 markets and hope that Humphries picks up his rate.
The bookies expect the match to be around 16 -17 legs and even with a conservative view of their 180 hitting abilities, over 11.5 looks realistic.
