Thursday PDC World Championship Tips – JP
Thursday PDC World Championship Tips
It was yet another profitable night for us on Wednesday with James Punt landing winners at 6.00 and 2.20. We have another thrilling afternoon of darting action ahead of us today. Check out James Punt’s Thursday PDC World Championship tips below.
Raymond Smith vs. Merv King
Merv King has only progressed beyond the fourth round once before in his long career. He won both his matches so far with a 92 average and he is playing OK, but nothing more.
Raymond Smith has been very consistent across all three of his matches, averaging 94.8, 93.2 and 94.8. His all-round game is good, a bit light on 180s but plenty of 140s.
Smith has nothing to fear here. He has exceeded his expectations and is under no pressure. There is talk of winning a tour card, but does he want to move to plague Island to try his hand on the tour?
King is the 1.44 favourite which looks a bit short given his performances so far. Smith is the 2.90 outsider, and he has been the better player of the two. We know King is capable of a lot better, but his form has been very hot and cold of late and it is worth taking a punt on the outsider.
Thursday PDC World Championship tips: 1 point Raymond Smith to win @ 2.90 with Ladbrokes, Hills
Alan Soutar vs. Callan Rydz
The path to this fourth round tie could not have been more different for these two players. Callan Rydz has won his three matches to nil and only had his throw broken twice. He dismantled Nathan Aspinall 4-0 yesterday and while The Asp wasn’t fully fit, he still averaged 95.5. Rydz has a tournament average of 97.4.
Soutar, on the other hand, has needed a deciding set in all three of his matches, survived multiple match darts against him and, let’s be honest, faced a not very good Brazilian, a useless Suljovic and a completely out of form Jose de Sousa. His tournament average is just 89.6 and he can’t keep on getting duff opponents, this is the business end of the World Championship.
They have only met once before, and Rydz won that match 6-5. The market makes Rydz the overwhelming favourite and a best priced 1.29, Soutar can be backed at 4.50.
Riot Could Romp To Victory
The way Rydz has been playing, this could be over very quickly. He has been hugely impressive so far and I can see only two threats. The first would be to fail his Covid test, and the second is that he wakes up and realises he is playing for a place in the quarter final of the biggest tournament in the world, and he is the favourite to win. Rydz is not hugely experienced. He has only played 24 matches in ranked majors and won 14, and in 2021 it is 8 wins from 13. He might just get a bit tight.
Whilst Rydz may be inexperienced at this level, he is more experienced than Soutar who only joined the pro tour in January and who has only played nine ranked major matches, but he has won seven of them. He might just be able to deal with the big occasion better despite not having much experience.
The crowd will be 90% for Rydz and being second match on, the footy boys will have had time to neck a few, so Soutar will get abuse.
Taking everything into account, Rydz is playing so much better than Soutar and while there is a risk that he gets stage fright, he looks the more likely to win and win fairly comfortably.
Thursday PDC World Championship tips: 1 point Rydz to win -2.5 sets @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes, SpreadEx
Thursday PDC World Championship tips: 0.5 point Rydz to win 4-0 @ 5.00 with SpreadEx
Chris Dobey vs. Luke Humphries
Both players are winners in the Covid lottery having gotten byes into the fourth round. They have both only played one match and this will be like starting a new tournament. Luckily both had their first match quite late, and it is only eight days ago for Humphries and seven for Dobey who played the last second round match of the tournament. Both averaged 92 in their openers and both can do a lot better.
Dobey has been one of the heaviest scorers in recent months but has only won four of his last ten matches. It is hard to get a firm grip on his form but his seasonal average, checkout rate and 180s per leg are all better than Humphries, but not by a huge margin.
Dobey Edges H2H
Their H2H record is 4-3 to Dobey and he has won three of their last four matches. In 2021 it is 1-1 but they have never played on stage before. That may be important as Humphries looks the more comfortable up on the big stages. Dobey has won just five of his eleven matches on TV this year. He has reached two major semi-finals but they were back in 2019.
Humphries made the final of the UK Open back in March and he has won 13 of 19 TV matches in 2021. He has won seven of his last ten matches, but his scoring has not been eye catching and he is not in top form.
Hard To Call
This is a hard match to call. Both are player who should be winning more than they do. Humphries is still young and has time on his side, while Dobey has been on the pro tour for six years and has only won two titles. They were both this year and that is a positive.
The bookmakers can’t split them, and you can make a case for both players. I think that Dobey is more likely to play better against Humphries than he would have against MVG but he does get a bit tight on the big occasions. Humphries looks a better stage player, but his form has been short of his best recently. This could be a bit of a grind and It’s hard to see one of them running away with it.
