Thursday World Grand Prix Darts Preview and Tips – JP
Thursday World Grand Prix Darts Tips
It all went Pete Tong for James Punt on Wednesday. His winning run came to an abrupt halt, but at least his headline ante-post tip Peter Wright snuck through. He is determined to bounce back tonight, get James’ Thursday World Grand Prix darts tips below.
Martin Lukeman vs. Ross Smith
Martin Lukeman started the year with one mission. To keep his tour card. After a great year on the ET, he has achieved that and more. He is inside the top 50 and in with a chance of another £10k if he wins tonight.
His win rate in 2022 is 63% but it must be said that more recently he has been losing too many matches, 12 of his last 20. Winning back-to-back has been a rarity and on that basis, he is due to lose this one. He beat James Wade 2-1 in a low quality first round match with both players struggling to check out. It was a match that could have gone either way, but Wade missed his chance and Lukeman took his.
Slow Start
Ross Smith had a slow start against Andrew Gilding, losing the first set 0-3, before he started to find his game, winning 2-1 in the end. It wasn’t a great match either and way short of the kind of stuff we have seen from him recently. Going off the boil, or just a bit tight on the big stage?
Neither player is a proven big TV stage player. Smith made the UK Open quarter finals in 2019 but otherwise, he has had early exits in the big ones. They have not met each other yet, so no H2H form to go on. Smith has been playing better darts than Lukeman of late as he has hit a patch of his A game. If he is still in it, he should win this, but he is a streaky player and can come off his peak form as easily as hitting it. Lukeman isn’t a very consistent player and hard to call as a result.
Smith lost out to Chizzy here at this stage last year (2-3) but he won’t have many better chances to make a quarter final than this, if he can find his range on the treble 20. In the three months leading up to this event, nobody in the tournament was hitting 180s at a better rate than Smudger. Smith is the 1.67 favourite, Lukeman 2.38. He is 1.50 to hit the most 180s and there is no value in his odds for either market.
Thursday World Grand Prix darts tips: No Bet
Daryl Gurney vs. Madars Razma
Superchin got the Rob Cross monkey off his back with a 2-1 win. That will relax him, and he has a good chance here to make the quarter final for the fourth time. He knows the ropes in this tournament and finds himself up against the lowest scorer in the event.
Razma beat Ryan Searle 2-1. Searle crumbled in the final set and his checkout rate was a very poor 18%. It is unlikely that Gurney will be so generous here. Gurney is not in good form, losing five of his last ten matches and Razma has won seven of his last ten on the pro tour, albeit with a lower average, checkout % and 180s per leg than Gurney.
First Meeting
No h2h Form to go on here either which is strange, but with his greater experience and better scoring, Gurney should justify odds of 1.50. Is it any great value? No.
To give a bit more interest in the two opening games I’ll back Smith and Gurney to hit the most 180s in their matches. Over the last three months, of the 32 players in the tournament, Smith had been hitting them at 0.37 per leg, Lukeman 0.21. Gurney may not be the big 180 beast he was a few years ago, but he was hitting them at 0.26 per leg, compared to Razma’s 0.11.
Thursday World Grand Prix darts tips: 1 point double Smith and Gurney to hit the most 180s @ 2.10 Betfred, SpreadEx
Gerwyn Price vs. Joe Cullen
At last, two players with some H2H form to go on. They have met 19 times and Price has won 10, to Cullen’s nine, surprisingly close. In 2022 it is 3-3, in the Premier League 2-2, but Price has won their last three in a row, including a 10-8 win at the recent World Series of Darts finals.
Price is in top form, winning 11 of his last 12 and scoring heavily. He breezed past Martin Schindler in the first round, 2-0 and dropping just one leg without getting out of first gear. It wasn’t a great performance, but it didn’t need to be as Schindler was just 8% on the checkouts.
Cullen played far better when beating Damon Heta 2-1. He averaged 91.6 and was 50% on the checkouts. It was close match with both players winning six legs and averaging 91. More of the same and Cullen can continue to be a problem for Price.
Surprising H2H
Their H2H record was a bit of a surprise. The fact that four of their matches were in this year’s PL may flatter Cullen as Price is a lesser player in the PL, he just doesn’t get on with it at all. Both are recent tournament winners, both are in good form (Cullen has won seven of his last ten), but Price has that recent TV stage win over Cullen.
Cullen hasn’t got a great tournament record, having reached just one quarter final in the last six years, while Price has reached at least the quarter final in three of the last four, winning the title in 2020 and he was runner up last year.
I fancy Price to be too good for Cullen, but Cullen is playing well enough to get something out of the game. All four of last night’s matches went to a deciding set which is unusual. Tonight’s matches may be a bit shorter. Half of Price’s last 16 matches have ended 3-1 and something similar looks possible.
Thursday World Grand Prix darts tips: 1 point Gerwyn Price to win 3-1 @ 4.00 with Betfred
Nathan Aspinall vs. Danny Noppert
Two players who are very similar in terms of scoring and win rates. Both have seasonal averages of 95, both have a seasonal win rate of 73% and both have won six of their last ten matches. Noppert has been the more consistent performer of late, averaging in the 90s for his last 19 matches coming into this event, whereas Aspinall tends to slip into the 80s more often.
Their H2H record is 6-4 to Aspinall. Noppert won their only match this year and in their last two meetings in a major it is 2-0 to Aspinall, but both were very close. They met in this event in 2019, also in the second round, and The Asp won 3-2. In last year’s European Championship quarter final, he won 10-9. Another close match looks likely, but Noppert gets the nod due to his consistency.
