Tuesday 2023 PDC World Championship Tips – JP
Tuesday 2023 PDC World Championship Preview
The darts are back after a Xmas break and so is James Punt. He finished up with a lovely 3.60 winner on the final day of action. Check out his Tuesday 2023 PDC World Championship preview below.
Dimitri van den Bergh vs. Krzysztof Ratajski
There is not much between these two in terms of scoring, nor current form. Van den Bergh is coming back to form after losing his way a bit when changing his darts supplier and darts. He has had a new look-a-like set made up and is effectively playing with his old darts. Sadly, he is sticking with his new shirt.
Van den Bergh has won five of his last ten matches, Ratajski six. Van den Bergh’s seasonal average is 95.6 and Ratajski 94.6. Neither has been at their best in 2022 but both have shown hints of a return to better form. Dimitri has played in five previous 3rd round matches and won three, Ratajski has played two and won one.
Dimitri Dominant on TV
Their H2H record shows a 9-4 lead to Van den Bergh, in 2022 it’s 3-1 to the Belgian and on TV, 3-0. That might just give Dancing Dimitri the edge. Neither are full of confidence and the knowledge that he has had the better of the Pole more often than not, and always on TV, could be enough to get his head in the right place.
Van den Bergh is the 1.55 favourite with Ratajski 2.75. Van den Bergh deserves to be favourite, more based on their H2H form rather than recent form and the odds on the Belgian are a little too short given that he has lost five of his last ten matches.
I doubt that either player is going dominate the match and wrap it up quickly and an overs on the sets is in order. However, at 1.67 over 5.5 sets, the odds are bang on. Dimitri van den Bergh is a much bigger 180 hitter but he is just 1.67 to win and hit the most 180s and it is hard to find much value here, but I’ll take Van den Bergh to win it 4-2.
Tuesday 2023 PDC World Championship Tip: 0.5 point Dimitri van den Bergh to win 4-2 @ 4.80 with Ladbrokes
Nathan Aspinall vs. Josh Rock
One of the more anticipated matches of the third round. Rock has not kicked off yet but has won his first two matches with his C game. That is a good thing, but he is going to need find the A game at some point and it may be as soon as this match. He is on debut and he will be nervous.
There are a lot of expectations on his shoulders, and he doesn’t have much experience to draw on. He has only played ten matches on TV and won five, including one against Nathan Aspinall, a 6-5 win the first round of the European Championship.
Experience Edge
Aspinall on the other hand is an experienced player, a major winner with a lot more experience of playing on TV and on this stage. It was only last month that Aspinall was runner up in the Grand Slam and in October, runner up the Grand Prix. His TV form has generally been good but he did fall at the first fence in the European Championship and Players Championship.
His 3-1 win over Boris Krčmar means that he has made it into the tournament proper this time. Aspinall is a two time World Championship semi-finalist, but he has lost at this stage for the last two years. He has played 16 matches on this stage and won 12. Only once has his average been under 90 and that was in his very first match. Since then, he has hit ten 95+ averages, so we should expect something similar here.
Longer Format
Rock won their only match so far, that narrow first round win at the European Championship. That was a short first to six legs format, whereas that is first to four sets. The longer format should suit the better player, but who is the better player? The rankings say Aspinall but that is just because Rock has only been playing for the last year.
From a pure form point of view, there is not much in it, but Rock just edges it in my book. That is tempered by the fact that Aspinall will be more at home on this stage and with the longer format.
The market has Rock as the 1.67 favourite with The Asp a 2.30 shot. I would have wanted to see a bit more from Rock to justify those odds against a top player like Aspinall. The Asp likes a tussle on this stage, and he will enjoy the pace of the game.
Tuesday 2023 PDC World Championship Tip: 1 point Nathan Aspinall to win @ 2.30 with Betfred, SpreadEx, BET365
Jonny Clayton vs. Brendan Dolan
These two have met on seven occasions, never on stage, and it is Brendan Dolan who leads 4-3. Most of their H2H form is a bit stale and they only met once in 2022, which was won by Dolan.
Clayton does not have a good World Championship record. He has never gone beyond the 4th round and only once won a 3rd round match. That sole win was a 4-0 win over Gabriel Clemens last year but his other three third round matches he lost 1-4, 0-4 and 3-4. He won his second round match in a very convincing fashion, beating Danny van Trijp 3-0 and averaging 99.6. The Ferret has won seven of his last ten matches and he is hitting some better form after an average sort of season.
Underrated
Brendan Dolan is universally underrated, but his best form is on the floor and his win rate in 2022 is a worrying 49.5%, a career low. Losing his first eight matches of the season in a row wasn’t a great start, but he reached a players championship quarter final in March, a semi-final in April and a Euro Tour quarter final in May. Dolan reached the final of PC 21 in July, beating Jonny Clayton 8-5. He hasn’t done much since that final and most recently he has lost six of his last ten.
This looks like a simple pick up for Clayton and the market has made him the 1.23 favourite and Dolan 4.50. However, that H2H record should serve as a caution. In Clayton’s favour, Dolan has a poor World Championship record. He has played in 14 but only won a single 3rd round match, in the 2019 championship. There is no value in the outright market here.
The fact that this is a stage match plays into Clayton’s hands. Dolan isn’t the player he is on the floor while Clayton’s best form is on stage. Clayton beat Clemens 4-0 at this stage last year and given their recent form, it would be no surprise to see him winning to nil once again.
