Tuesday Evening Grand Slam Of Darts

Monday night saw some shock results at the Grand Slam of Darts. We at least came away with one winner, Jim Williams to hit the most 180s at 2.38. James Punt is back for more punishment tonight. Check out his Tuesday Evening Grand Slam of Darts preview and predictions below:

Tuesday Evening Grand Slam Preview

This might just be my worst ever performance in tipping a darts event. It doesn’t matter what I do, the opposite happens. Maybe it will be better when we get to the knockout stage. Once more unto the breach……

Michael Smith vs. Joe Davis

Surely this one has to go the way of Smith? Mind you, if I back Smith, Davis will have found a miracle cure for his tennis elbow, will come out and shoot a 120 average and win 5-0.

Smith is averaging 99 so far 41.67% on the doubles and is 0.31 180’s per leg. Good solid stuff.

Davis is just going through the motions, doing what he has to do to get his prizemoney. His injury means he can’t throw properly. He is averaging 70, has hit 100% of his doubles (1 from 1) and not hit a 180.

This isn’t a match, and most bookmakers are offering no more than a perfunctory 1.01 on Smith to win. You can get 1.03 in a place and that’s better than the banks will give you.

Smith will top the group and likely face Joe Cullen in the knockout stage.

Joe Cullen vs. Lisa Ashton

Both Cullen and Ashton were crushed by MVG in their respective group matches. Ashton lost 0-5, Cullen 2-5. It wasn’t a bad performance by Cullen and just getting two legs against a player averaging 115 is good.

Lisa Ashton also lost her match against John Henderson, 2-5, despite Henderson averaging just 91.6. She is averaging 88.5, checking out at 40% and hitting 180’s at 0.17 per leg. She is playing a bit better than her 12 month stats suggest she should, but not by much.

Cullen is averaging 98, checking out at 41% and hitting 180’s at a very healthy 0.67 per leg. He is playing better than his 12 months stats, especially the 180’s, but this is over just two short matches. Cullen is eleventh for 180’s per year in the last 12 months so he should prevail in that department and is the 1.40 favourite to do so.

Cullen is just 1.17 to win and he should do so long as he doesn’t take it for granted that he will. Ashton’s absolute best TV average was 100 in the first round of this year’s UK Open when she beat Arron Beeney 6-2, back in the days when I could pick a winner. However, Cullen is a different proposition to Beeney and even a ton may not be enough.

Michael van Gerwen vs. John Henderson

Yet another match with a very short priced favourite. MVG is 1.17 to beat Henderson for the twelfth time in fourteen matches. Hendo famously beat MVG in the World Grand Prix in 2017. That is the double in format which does allow for more surprises. They have met twice in 2021 and MVG won both 4-1 and 6-1.

Over his two matches so far, MVG is averaging 110, checking out at 50% and hitting the maximums at 0.41 per leg.

Henderson is averaging 90, checking out at 45% and hitting 180’s at 0.17 per leg.

It is another mis-match and pretty pointless from a betting perspective.

Mensur Suljovic vs. Matt Campbell

This is the proverbial banana skin for Mensur. We have not seen the best of Campbell in his opening two matches, but we saw last night, that a player who is out of the tournament (technically Campbell is not, but he needs a miracle) was able to find their A-game. Schindler beating Price 5-4 being the one. The German was a different player with no pressure on him.

Suljovic has averaged 95.7 across his two matches, checked out at 55% and hitting 180’s at 0.29 per leg. His two matches saw a good performance to beat Luke Humphries 5-3 with both players averaging over a ton, followed by a messy match against De Sousa which took a while to get going and just as long to finish. Neither player played well but De Sousa fell over the line first.

Matt Campbell remains a dangerous opponent despite averaging just 85 across his first two matches. He is capable of much better and Mensur will need to be careful here. He is the 1.40 favourite with Campbell a 3.30 shot.

We have backed Mensur for the tournament outright, and he needs the win for his run to continue. That is enough interest in this match for me.

Peter Wright vs. Mike de Decker

De Decker is already eliminated and has little to play for here. Even a 5-0 win would be unlikely to elevate him to third and an extra £3.5k. Will he ‘do a Schindler’ and rain on Wright’s parade?

Peter Wright has not played well so far as his run of poor form continues. He is averaging just 94, well below his 12 month average but very much in line with his form of the last month or so. His doubling has been very poor, just 25% across his two matches, and he must do better or he is going to give De Decker chances.

De Decker was smashed up by Fallon Sherrock in his last match. It was a 0-5 whitewash where he could only average 75. I imagine he will want to prove that he can do a lot better than that, as he did in the qualifying tournament. He does have a very good A-game, it is just a matter of finding it. He hasn’t had any success vs. Snakey before, losing all four previous matches and losing badly, 24-8 in total legs. That form is quite old so may be not a great guide.

Wright Too Short

Wright is the 1.22 favourite, not worth touching with a bargepole. De Decker can be backed at 4.90 which is tempting, despite him winning just one leg so far. The Belgian is no mug and a lot better than he showed against Sherrock. Wright is the one under pressure here and if he struggles on the doubles again, he could be in bother. However, Decker has hit just one double from five attempts himself so his confidence in that department is poor.

Wright’s doubling is hiding the fact that his scoring has been good and he has hit 8 maximums at a rate of 0.5 per leg, well above his seasonal average rate.

Gabriel Clemens vs. Fallon Sherrock

Sherrock was making the headlines again after thrashing De Decker 5-0 in the last match. Back-to-back 180’s to open the match was a knockout blow for the Belgian and he didn’t recover or regroup and was pummelled. The crowd of course was going mad, and De Decker just wanted it all to end ASAP. Now it is Clemens turn to take his chances against Fallon and the crowd.

Sherrock is averaging 96 across her two matches, a 90.5 and a 101.5, is checking out at 33% and hitting the 180’s at 0.54 per leg. For Clemens he is averaging 97, checking out at 40% and 180’s at 0.40 per leg. Solid stats for Clemens and if he can start well and keep the crowd quiet, he can justify odds of 1.47 to win.

The crowd factor is the thing that makes Sherrock’s games harder to call. If she gets her nose in front and hits a few 180’s Clemens will have the whole place on his back while Sherrock gets a real buzz from the adulation. Her record on stage vs. the men is played 11, won 5, drew 1 and lost 5. Looking at it from that perspective, odds of 2.90 are generous. With my luck this week, the opposite will happen to whatever I picked so no bet for me.

Gary Anderson vs. Raymond van Barneveld

The old timers slugging it out to see who joins Michael Smith in the knockout rounds. Anderson has never failed to make the knockout rounds and he is the favourite to do so again. Anderson is the 1.83 favourite and Barney a 2.10 shot.

Gary Anderson has not impressed so far. He wasn’t really trying against the injured Davis but he was easily beaten by Michael Smith 2-5. Barney on the other hand took Smith to a decider. Barney is playing OK but his doubling has been good, 50% in both matches. Anderson, not so good on the doubles, 23% and 40%. In his last 50 matches his check out rate has been 33% or below in 40% of those matches, and that is the danger zone. Barney hasn’t been much better over his last 50 matches, 36% at 33% or worse, but it has been pretty good in the last 10 matches.

Their H2H record is 23-13 to Anderson but they haven’t played for over three years. This makes no appeal for betting purposes. No Bet.

I will place just one bet tonight, no doubt it will lose, but maybe pigs can fly.

Tuesday Evening Grand Slam of Darts Tip: 2 points Cullen most 180’s and win vs. Ashton, and Wright to hit the most 180’s vs. De Decker @ 2.93 with Betfair

-JamesPunt