UK Open Sunday Afternoon Preview and Tips – JP
UK Open Sunday Afternoon Preview
Both Gerwyn Price and Damon Heta made it through to the quarter finals last night. James Punt advised them outright at 6.00 and 51.00 respectively, hopefully one of them goes all the way. You can check out his UK Open Sunday afternoon session tips below.
Keane Barry vs. James Wade
Here we have a quarter final of a major and James Wade’s tournament average is higher than his opponent and just over 100. Given that his 2022 average is 93.75, you can see by how much better he is performing over his norm. He is the defending champion and has never defended a major championship before. That said, of the players left, only he and Price have previously won a major. Wade has won seven of his last ten matches and the three defeats were to Price, Wright and Aspinall, all topflight players.
Keane Barry is still inexperienced at this level and bound to tighten up at some stage. He is averaging 95.4 and has performed very consistently so far. The draw has been kind to Barry and he has been favourite to win all his matches. This is a big step up in class. He is facing the defending champion, the now World number 3 and someone averaging 100.
Wade On Top Form
Wade is the 1.44 favourite with Barry a 3.00 shot. Wade is used to operating in this environment and is in top form. He is prone to having off days, but he looks to be in the mood and wants to retain the title.
Barry will be no push over, but this is likely to be a whole different kettle of fish for Barry. Wade beats great players when he is scoring 93 averages, when he is scoring 100? That takes something special. If Barry wins it is likely to be Wade having one of those days, but from what we have seen so far, he is at the very top of his game, much as he was 12 months ago.
UK Open Sunday afternoon tips: 2 points Wade to win -2.5 legs @ 2.00 with Unibet
Sebastian Bialecki vs. William O’Connor
Bialecki is the youngest of the two teenagers in the quarter final. He doesn’t even have a tour card but here he is on the verge of a major semi-final. A real FA Cup style storyline. He has won six matches to get this far and has averaged 91.6. Sebastian has had decent draws so far, avoiding any of the top players and he faces William O’Connor, another player outside of the top 32.
O’Connor has played in two previous major quarter finals, so this is not a new situation for him, but he did lose both. This is his best ever chance to make a semi-final, and the trick here will be to not get ahead of himself and think he is through as he is playing the rank outsider. O’Connor has averaged 94.75 so far, a little better than his seasonal average of 93.7.
Magpie Has Experience
O’Connor is the 1.53 favourite which is about right. He is not an elite player, has his moments but he is not immune to having a mare now and then. He is the more experienced player, and he needs to settle and try and dominate his opponent. Bialecki should be under no pressure, he has massively overachieved to get this far but he might still think he has a real chance and that might be a negative. An underdog state of mind would serve him better.
All fairy stories have an ending, and this should be it for Bialecki, but he seems level headed and unlikely to just collapse in a heap. Maybe against Price he would, but O’Connor? He is lower ranked than Searle and White, and he has beaten both of them in first to 10 leg matches.
The only similar situation to this is when Barry Lynn, a qualifier, reached the quarters in 2016 and lost 10-6 to MVG. O’Connor is no MVG, but Van Gerwen only averaged 95 that day. In the last 10 years, 20% of the quarter finals have ended 10-6.
UK Open Sunday afternoon tips: 1 point O’Connor to win -2.5 legs @ 2.12 with Unibet
UK Open Sunday afternoon tips: 0.5 point O’Connor to win 10-6 @ 9.00 with Unibet
Danny Noppert vs. Damon Heta
Our outsider bet has defied the odds to beat Jonny Clayton and MVG in the previous two rounds. He has had the toughest route to the quarters and has triumphed so far. He now faces another player who is in top form, in the shape of Danny Noppert.
Noppert has been very consistent, averaging 97,97 and 99 in his three matches so far. He has beaten Miekle, Petersen and Van Duijvenbode and only Petersen offered any resistance.
These two have never played each other before so this is the third match in a row with zero H2H form. Both players tournament average is 97.6, both are playing at the top of their form, and it is a tough one to call.
The market has Heta as the 1.71 favourite with Noppert 2.38. Heta has been one of the form players of 2022, winning 75% of his matches and averaging 100.2, compared to Noppert’s 75% and 94.1. Noppert has only played six matches in 2022 so it is hard to get a real grip on his form, but what we have seen has been very good.
The odds look right to me. In the last ten years, 65% of the quarter final matches have gone to 17 legs or more, and this looks like it could be another.
UK Open Sunday afternoon tips: 1 point over 16.5 legs @ 1.80 with Boylesports, William Hill
Michael Smith vs. Gerwyn price
The only two remaining top 10 players left in the draw, and they matched together. One of the outsiders is going to the final, but which of the remaining big boys could join them?
The H2H record is 15-15 with two draws. Since the start of 2020, it is 7-1 to Price, with two draws. Advantage Price in that respect.
There is little between them in terms of scoring with Smith averaging 97 and Price 100, very much in line with their seasonal averages.
Of course, I have to mention the monkey. The monkey on Smith’s back. The never won a major monkey. It is a big monkey and seems to get bigger the closer Smith gets to the winning line. These two met in the quarter final of this year’s World Championship and it was Smith who won that but, he then lost the final to Peter Wright. In terms of ranking major quarter finals, Smith has played 17 and won 7. Price has played 21 and won 14. Advantage Price in another department.
Price is the best priced 1.50 favourite, Smith 2.80. That may be a touch generous on Price, but not by much. We have a 2 point bet on Price to win the tournament and that is enough of an investment for me. No bet.
